I think the long end can stay elevated, or even move higher, even if the Fed stands pat.
The key issue is that the 10Y/30Y are increasingly being driven by more than the expected Fed path. Fiscal deficits, heavy Treasury issuance and a rising term premium can keep pushing long-term yields higher without another rate hike.
A Fed pause may relieve some pressure at the front end, but it does not automatically solve the supply-demand imbalance further out the curve. If investors demand more compensation to hold duration, the curve could steepen through higher long-end yields.
For equities, that matters because a 5%+ 10Y keeps the discount-rate hurdle high, particularly for expensive growth stocks.
My base case: Fed pause ≠ long-end relief. I would watch Treasury auctions, term premium and inflation expectations more closely than the next Fed meeting alone.
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