NVIDIA: down 9.8% in seven sessions, and why I'm still not selling puts
NVIDIA closed at $214.13 on 16 Oct, down 9.8% from $237.47 on 8 Oct and 12.1% below its record of $243.57. Nothing changed in the company. Rates and a funding scare moved the whole chip sector.
On 14 Oct, September CPI showed inflation at 3.7%, above expectations. The 10-year yield rose more than 7 basis points, and the market-implied chance of a Fed hike on 28 Oct jumped from 22% to 44%. The Philadelphia semiconductor index fell 2.8% and NVIDIA 3.2%. The same day CoreWeave fell 15–16% after a chart of its roughly 15% bond yields went viral, which fed worries about how the AI build-out is financed. NVIDIA fell another 1.8% on 15 Oct and 1.4% on 16 Oct. One session tracker found no company-specific cause.
The case itself is the same. Q3 FY27 guidance is $108B of revenue at a 74% gross margin, with results due 18 Nov after the close. The stock trades at 17.7× forward earnings, 35% below the $328.72 consensus target. My scorecard still gives it 78/100, first in my series. The number I'm watching on 18 Nov is cash conversion. Q2 converted only 40.4% of earnings to operating cash, against 86.3% in Q1.
My sell-put gates at $214.13:
200-day SMA ($202.97): pass, spot is 5.5% above.
Zone: amber. The stock broke below its 50-day ($223.08) rather than bouncing off it.
20 EMA (≈$225.65): fail, price is below a falling EMA.
IVR 33.9, IVP 34.1: fail. Amber zone raises the bar to 55/55.
Earnings: fail. The 20 Nov monthly expires two days after the 18 Nov print.
Sizing: a $190 strike ties up $19,000, above my $12,500 Amber half-cap.
The next window is 1–16 Dec for the 15 Jan 2027 monthly. It needs a Full Green zone, IVR of at least 40, and cash conversion back above 70%. On today's numbers a $190 put is about 0.15 delta at 37% IV and pays 10.0% annualised. At 32% IV it's 0.12 delta and 6.4%.
So there's no put trade today. Volatility decides whether it pays, and I re-run every gate on 1 Dec.
Personal framework, not investment advice.
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