I’d watch Treasury yields first. Neutral Fed guidance helps, but if yields remain volatile or keep climbing, tech valuations can still stay under pressure. A sustained stabilisation or decline in yields would suggest the bond market believes inflation and policy risks are becoming more manageable.
If the Fed stays neutral and yields settle at the same time, then mega-cap earnings should become the bigger driver for QQQ. For me, stable yields would be the stronger confirmation that policy risk is genuinely fading rather than just temporarily being pushed aside by earnings.
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