To The Moon

November has arrived.

And Wall Street has suddenly turned green.

On November 4:

Dow: +3.03%

S&P 500: +1.58%

Nasdaq: +1.44%

Hong Kong joined the recovery.

Hang Seng: 23,919.50 (+1.67%)

Hang Seng TECH: 3,936.02 (+1.77%)

After a brutal October, this looks encouraging.

But here's what caught my attention.

NVIDIA FELL 3.17%.

While the Dow surged more than 1,500 points.

And Hong Kong technology stocks?

They had lost approximately:

11.7% IN OCTOBER.

So are we witnessing the beginning of a broad November rally?

Or something more selective?

I think the second possibility deserves much more attention.

Because the next rally may not reward the stocks that led the last one.

THE MARKET IS ROTATING BEFORE EVERYONE HAS REALISED IT.

🔥 FIRST, ABOUT NOVEMBER'S FAMOUS 80% WIN RATE

Since 1996, the S&P 500 has risen in approximately:

80% OF NOVEMBERS.

Its average November return over that period has been around:

+2.5%.

Impressive.

And historical post-midterm returns have also tended to be favourable.

But here's where investors make a mistake.

SEASONALITY IS NOT A BUY SIGNAL.

An 80% historical win rate doesn't mean every stock has an 80% probability of rising this November.

It doesn't tell us which sector will outperform.

And it certainly doesn't guarantee that a stock down 20% will recover.

The real question is:

WHERE IS MONEY ROTATING?

That's why November 4 was so interesting.

Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress.

The resulting divided government helped remove election uncertainty.

Falling oil prices and Treasury yields also supported markets.

But semiconductor shares struggled.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell approximately:

3.1%.

So while the broad market celebrated, the AI infrastructure trade was being reassessed.

That is not a small detail.

🚨 NVIDIA: AN EXTRAORDINARY BUSINESS, BUT A DIFFERENT MARKET

Nvidia closed November 4 at:

$200.13

Down:

3.17%.

Yet its last reported quarter delivered:

Revenue: $96.22B

Growth: +106% YoY

Data Center revenue: $89B

Growth: +117% YoY

And management's Q3 revenue outlook?

$108 BILLION ± 2%.

These are extraordinary numbers.

So why is the stock struggling?

I think investors are increasingly looking beyond demand.

They are asking:

CAN THE INFRASTRUCTURE BUILDOUT CONTINUE AT THIS PACE?

The midterm results have raised concerns about tougher data-centre permitting, electricity requirements and construction restrictions.

That does not mean AI demand is disappearing.

But it introduces another potential bottleneck.

A customer can want Nvidia GPUs.

A cloud provider can have billions available.

And the infrastructure project can still be delayed by power availability, permitting or construction constraints.

AI DEMAND IS NOT THE SAME AS AI DEPLOYMENT CAPACITY.

That is the distinction I am watching.

Nvidia reports earnings on:

NOVEMBER 17.

Until then, I would focus on whether its shares can defend:

$195-$200

and reclaim:

$207-$210.

A stronger recovery through $220 would improve the technical picture.

But losing $195 convincingly would make me more cautious.

The fundamental business may remain exceptional.

The stock can still experience valuation compression.

🔵 HONG KONG: THE RECOVERY IS REAL, BUT THE DAMAGE IS DEEPER

Hang Seng TECH closed October around:

3,755.

By November 4:

3,936.

That is approximately:

4.8% RECOVERY.

Encouraging?

Absolutely.

But remember.

The index had just lost almost:

12% IN ONE MONTH.

A 4.8% rebound does not automatically repair an 11.7% decline.

And here is what I find particularly interesting.

Hong Kong technology is not simply China's version of Nvidia.

The Hang Seng TECH Index contains large internet, commerce, consumer-platform and technology businesses.

So its performance depends on more than AI spending.

It depends on:

CHINESE CONSUMER DEMAND.

CORPORATE EARNINGS.

REGULATORY CONFIDENCE.

LIQUIDITY.

AND VALUATIONS.

That is why I am watching whether the rebound can move beyond short covering.

🔥 BEIJING JUST GAVE THE MARKET ANOTHER CATALYST

On November 4, Reuters reported that Chinese banks had applied for more than:

200 BILLION YUAN

approximately:

US$30 BILLION

in lending quotas to finance corporate share purchases.

The People's Bank of China reduced the rate on its stock-purchase relending facility to:

1%.

That matters.

Because it lowers the cost of financing share buybacks and shareholder purchases.

Potentially supportive for equity demand.

But there's a distinction.

BUYBACK SUPPORT IS NOT THE SAME AS EARNINGS GROWTH.

Buybacks can improve demand for shares.

They cannot permanently compensate for deteriorating business fundamentals.

So I want to see whether Alibaba, Tencent and other major Hong Kong technology companies can combine better investor sentiment with improving earnings.

That's where a more sustainable rally could emerge.

🧠 AND WHAT ABOUT ANT'S IPO?

This is a potential catalyst, but I would be careful with the headlines.

Ant Group's original planned:

$37 BILLION IPO

was suspended in 2020.

Now the international business is back in focus.

Ant International, which operates independently from Ant Group, announced approximately:

US$1.2 BILLION

in completed Series A financing in July 2026.

Its operations include Alipay+, Antom, WorldFirst and other cross-border financial technology services.

There has also been reporting about a potential Hong Kong listing.

But as of this article:

NO CONFIRMED IPO DATE.

And that is important.

I would not buy Alibaba or Hong Kong fintech stocks solely because someone says Ant is about to list.

There is a difference between:

IPO SPECULATION

and:

A CONFIRMED LISTING APPLICATION, VALUATION AND TIMETABLE.

If those details become concrete?

That could improve interest in the Hong Kong fintech ecosystem.

But an IPO can also absorb market liquidity, particularly if priced aggressively.

So I would watch Alibaba and HKEX for sentiment, while remembering that an Ant International IPO is not equivalent to the cancelled 2020 Ant Group listing.

📍 MY NOVEMBER TRADING MAP

Here are my reference levels for the next 1-3 weeks, based on the latest completed sessions.

🇺🇸 S&P 500

7,550: First important support region.

7,689: November 4 closing reference.

7,800: Initial upside test.

7,900-8,000: Stronger bullish extension.

Below 7,500?

I would question whether the post-election rally is holding.

🇭🇰 HANG SENG TECH

3,750-3,800: Important lower support region.

3,900: Near-term pivot.

4,000: First psychological recovery test.

4,200-4,250: More significant resistance area.

Above 4,250 with strong turnover?

Then I would begin treating the rebound as something more meaningful.

🇺🇸 NVIDIA

$195-$200: Support watch.

$207-$210: First recovery test.

$220-$228: Stronger bullish confirmation region.

These are trading reference zones, not guaranteed prices.

🔮 MY THREE NOVEMBER SCENARIOS

Subjective probabilities for the next 1-3 weeks.

🟢 BULL CASE: 30%

US election uncertainty fades.

Lower oil and yields support equities.

Nvidia delivers strong earnings and reassuring guidance.

China's liquidity support gains traction.

Potential outcomes:

S&P 500: 7,900-8,000

Hang Seng TECH: 4,200-4,300

The important confirmation?

Broad market strength accompanied by improving semiconductor participation and Hong Kong turnover.

🟡 BASE CASE: 50%

This is my preferred scenario.

US markets remain constructive but rotate between sectors.

Nvidia earnings create volatility.

Hong Kong technology continues recovering, but faces resistance around 4,000-4,200.

Potential working ranges:

S&P 500: 7,500-7,900

Hang Seng TECH: 3,750-4,200

I would use pullbacks to assess selective entries rather than chase every green candle.

🔴 BEAR CASE: 20%

AI infrastructure regulatory concerns intensify.

Nvidia's outlook disappoints.

China's liquidity measures fail to generate sustained buying.

Hong Kong technology loses momentum.

Risk zones:

S&P 500: 7,250-7,500

Hang Seng TECH: 3,500-3,750

In this scenario, I would prioritise cash and capital preservation.

🔥 WHICH STOCKS WOULD I ACTUALLY WATCH?

NVDA: My biggest November earnings catalyst. I want stronger price confirmation before chasing.

AMD: Strong AI growth, but I am watching execution, margins and whether momentum holds.

MU: Attractive memory-demand exposure, but its sharp November 4 decline reminds us that strong fundamentals do not eliminate sector risk.

MSFT: Worth watching as investors increasingly reward companies that can convert AI spending into revenue and cash flow.

BABA (9988.HK): My Hong Kong recovery watch. I want improving business fundamentals, not simply IPO rumours.

TENCENT (0700.HK): A useful test of whether large, established Chinese technology businesses attract sustained capital.

HKEX (0388.HK): A potential beneficiary if trading activity and IPO fundraising improve, although listing rumours alone are insufficient.

I would not give every stock equal capital.

And I would not assume the most beaten-down stock offers the best opportunity.

🧠 MY CALL: NOVEMBER MAY REWARD SELECTION, NOT BLIND OPTIMISM

The historical November statistics are encouraging.

The post-midterm rally is encouraging.

China's market-support measures are encouraging.

But November 4 delivered one signal I cannot ignore.

THE DOW ROSE 3%.

NVIDIA FELL 3%.

That tells me the market isn't simply buying everything.

It is making choices.

And those choices are increasingly about:

EARNINGS QUALITY.

VALUATION.

CASH GENERATION.

REGULATORY RISK.

AND FUTURE GROWTH VISIBILITY.

For the US, November 17 is a major test.

For Hong Kong, I want Hang Seng TECH to reclaim 4,000 and then 4,200 while turnover and earnings expectations improve.

As for Ant?

I WANT THE IPO FILING, NOT JUST THE HEADLINE.

So yes, I'm constructive about November.

But not blindly bullish.

My strategy is simple.

KEEP QUALITY.

BUY CONFIRMED STRENGTH OR CONSTRUCTIVE PULLBACKS.

WATCH WHERE INSTITUTIONS ROTATE.

KEEP CASH FOR OPPORTUNITIES.

Because November's historical win rate may be 80%.

But the stock market does not reward us simply for knowing the calendar.

IT REWARDS US FOR OWNING THE RIGHT ASSETS AT THE RIGHT PRICE.

I am not a financial advisor. Trade wisely, Comrades!

Which would you pick for November: NVDA before earnings, beaten-down Hong Kong technology, or cash while waiting for confirmation?

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