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尤大成
2021-07-26

The three new energy giants have become undecently rolled

继小鹏汽车之后，理想汽车也回来了。 7月26日，港交所文件显示，理想汽车通过港交所上市聆讯，将寻求作为具有不同投票权架构的发行人申请双重主要上市。虽然是国内三大造车新势力之一，但相比另外两个，理想汽

The three new energy giants have become undecently rolled

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":800299972,"tweetId":"800299972","gmtCreate":1627303202896,"gmtModify":1703487129653,"author":{"id":3555497604132927,"idStr":"3555497604132927","authorId":3555497604132927,"authorIdStr":"3555497604132927","name":"尤大成","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b97d814f3ef1f69dc6b55b9de20e7a45","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":10,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Hi</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Hi</body></html>","text":"Hi","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/800299972","repostId":1108257936,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108257936","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"格隆汇旗下公众号。分享和探讨港股、美国中概股以及少量估值确有吸引力之A股的投资线索、投资机会与投资心得.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇投资学苑","id":"3","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c"},"pubTimestamp":1627302589,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1108257936?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-26 20:29","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The three new energy giants have become undecently rolled","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108257936","media":"格隆汇投资学苑","summary":"继小鹏汽车之后，理想汽车也回来了。\n7月26日，港交所文件显示，理想汽车通过港交所上市聆讯，将寻求作为具有不同投票权架构的发行人申请双重主要上市。\n虽然是国内三大造车新势力之一，但相比另外两个，理想汽","content":"Follow<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>After that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Back, too.On July 26, Hong Kong Stock Exchange documents showed that Li Auto will seek to apply for dual primary listing as an issuer with different voting rights structure through the Hong Kong Stock Exchange listing hearing.Although it is one of the three major new car-making forces in China, compared with the other two, Li Auto seems to be much lower-key, and many operating indicators have no obvious advantages. Can this landing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange become a new starting point for Li Auto, and complete the counterattack in the future competition?1、Business data, not ideal?From the product point of view, Li Auto only has one six-seater medium-to-large<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLX\">Luxurious</a>Electric SUV--Ideal ONE; In terms of sales volume, in 2020, Ideal sold 32,624 vehicles, ranking among the middle of the year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600617\">National New Energy</a>Car sales ranked sixth, accounting for 2.8% of the market share, and ranked third among automakers that only produce new energy vehicles. As of June 30, 2021, Ideal has delivered a total of more than 63,000 Ideal ONEs.Looking at competitors,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>, XPeng has mass-produced more than two automobile products, including SUVs and cars.In 2020, Nio's sales will reach 43,728 vehicles, which is higher than the ideal, while XPeng's sales will reach 27,006 vehicles, which is relatively low.But the difference is that the competitors are all pure electric models, and the ideal extended-range technology route is somewhat touched by the convenience of fuel vehicles.In terms of financial data, Ideal is still at a loss. From 2019 to 2020, Li Auto's total revenue was approximately 284 million yuan and 9.457 billion yuan respectively, and the net losses attributable to ordinary shareholders were 3.282 billion yuan and 792 million yuan respectively. The losses have narrowed, while the gross profit has turned positive.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/129a0d88612f98087ba073834f0e32dc\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"589\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">However, the total revenue in the first three months of 2021 was 3.575 billion yuan, and the net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders was 360 million yuan, an increase of 3.67 times compared with the same period last year.The reason is that R&D expenses and marketing expenses are growing rapidly.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b96932b218d0b2a17d8eb1be2744d78f\" tg-width=\"994\" tg-height=\"592\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">To plan for the future, research and development expenses must be maintained, and marketing expenses are difficult to reduce due to the need to seize the market. In other words, it is difficult for both expenses to be reduced in the short term, so it is still very likely that this year's net loss will exceed last year's.It is difficult to judge when the net profit will turn positive, but this is also a common problem for new domestic forces. If you apply<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>What we have experienced, in the year when the net profit turned positive, the total sales volume was 500,000 vehicles, so the profitability of new domestic forces is still far away. Of course, there is still a big difference between \"Wei Xiaoli\" and Tesla, and forced comparison doesn't make much sense. I just want to explain that there is still a long way to go to truly achieve profitability.However, fortunately, the ideal monthly sales volume continues to grow. In June, it also won the domestic medium and large SUV sales championship, surpassing Nio vehicles in total sales, which is a good development trend.The continued strength of sales depends on Li Auto's layout of sales channels. As of June 30, 2021, it had 97 retail stores in major cities in China, and on July 10, 2021, it opened its 100th retail store. Like Tesla, Ideal locates retail stores in shopping malls that target users may visit, rather than central business districts or landmark buildings.The number of stores of competitor XPeng, including 88 directly-operated stores and 90 franchised stores, totals 178, which is 1.8 times that of Ideal. However, in the first half of this year, the sales volume of Ideal and XPeng was about 30,000 vehicles, which also shows that Ideal has an advantage in terms of single-store sales efficiency.To sum up the above operating indicators and financial data, we only see a relatively good trend of change, and it is difficult to apply conventional value models to quantify investment value.However, Li Auto is on a track of rapid development, sufficient growth dividends, and all developed countries are competing for it, so it must be viewed from a deeper perspective.2、Technical route, solve near-optimalIn the choice of major strategic direction, Li Auto is not too idealistic, but very realistic.At that time, when Tesla decided to make an electric car, it started with a luxurious sports car. What he took a fancy to was the technology tycoons in Silicon Valley, who were rich and willing to try new technologies, and at the same time contributed to environmental protection. The feelings of saving the world.Behind this, it is actually based on the overall consideration of business. The technology of electric vehicles is not yet mature, and the mass production is limited, so the price must be very expensive. If you rush to knock on the door of the grassroots market from the beginning, the result is likely to be shut out, and it is easy to be jointly encircled and suppressed by fuel vehicle manufacturers, and even stillborn.Therefore, it is a safe approach to start from a relatively differentiated market, and later facts also proved the success of Tesla's strategy.The same is true for Li Auto. After sorting out its various strategic thinking contexts, two points are very clear.First,Starting with medium and large SUV models, like Nio, they are interested in market acceptance and price advantage.In the past ten years, SUVs have been sought after by consumers for their strong power and spacious space, and the rising consumption power of Chinese people has supported this SUV boom. Therefore, choosing SUV models to enter the market can well share costs, eliminate the price gap with similar fuel vehicles, and make it easier for consumers to accept new energy vehicles.And second,Technical route of extended range.This is also the most controversial place in Li Auto. Why did Ideal choose this route?Let's take a look at the following pictures first.Comparing the three technical routes, you will find that the extended-range technical route is actually a trick between plug-in hybrid power and HEV hybrid power.It can refuel and charge like a plug-in hybrid. It also has the whole process of generating electricity, reserving, and driving the motor after discharging the fuel engine to provide power. However, it does not have the function of fuel engine directly driving the wheels.It can also be powered by just refueling like an HEV hybrid, and then the fuel vehicle engine generates electricity, but it also does not have the function of the fuel engine directly driving the wheels.Anyone who has driven a fuel vehicle knows that the engine is very noisy when rotating, and the fuel conversion efficiency is not high. Even the best technology can hardly exceed 50%. This is the thermal efficiency problem that fuel vehicles are often criticized. But electric vehicles are different. The noise of motor rotation is much lower than that of fuel engines, and the power conversion efficiency is also higher, often reaching 80-90%.Therefore, the advantage of the extended range is that it not only makes full use of the advantage of the motor instead of the fuel engine as the power source, but also retains the benefit of \"being able to refuel\", which solves the range anxiety of pure electric vehicles, too long charging time, and too few charging piles.In other words, the convenience of using fuel vehicles brings out the superiority of electric vehicles.The new energy vehicle industry is very expensive. Li Bin, the boss of Nio, once famously said:\"If you don't have 20 billion, don't make an electric car.\"Ask realistically, how many start-up car companies can get 20 billion as soon as they sell?Nio himself almost died because of lack of money, so he was qualified to talk about \"ideals\" only if he could survive smoothly. The financing data disclosed by Li Auto before its listing was 14.6 billion. If you blindly burn money into it, it is likely that the car will not even come out, and the company will already hang up.Don't blindly blow the cannon, start from the most pragmatic route, the goal is to survive, and then plan the overall situation of the future. This is the starting point and final destination of ideal strategic thinking.3、Ideal foresight, can it be solved?Like many technology-intensive industries, the choice of technical routes is very important for new energy vehicle companies.From the perspective of short-term survival, there is nothing wrong with the ideal choice of the extended-range technology route, and facts have proved its correctness. In terms of annual sales, it is second only to Tesla and Nio, and its gross profit margin and net profit margin are also significantly ahead of Nio and XPeng.But people have no near worries, but they must have far-sighted worries.For Li Auto, this long-term consideration is the pure electric technology route.From the long-term development trend of new energy vehicles, pure electricity is inevitable. It can better solve human dependence on oil and provide support for more intelligent applications. Although the problems of range anxiety and charging convenience have not yet been solved. It is well solved, but with the development of technology, it is not impossible to solve these problems. This is why although the extended-range route has advantages, it is not favored by many car companies, especially giants.The automotive industry prefers to regard range extension as a transitional solution rather than the ultimate solution.In terms of pure electric technology, Ideal has no advantage, and so far no pure electric model has been interviewed. Although in terms of strategic planning, Ideal has realized the importance of pure electric lines and focused on high-voltage fast charging technology, the first pure electric model will not be launched until 2023 at the earliest.The effect is unknown, but technology and market changes are changing with each passing day. Although the penetration rate is still in the growth range, the competition for pure electric vehicles has become very daytime. All kinds of \"immortals\", traditional, new, and cross-border, are shirtless. If it is difficult to compete, how much time does Li Auto have to spend? If it cannot quickly make a breakthrough on the pure electric technology route and ideally gain benefits on the extended-range route, how long can it be squandered?In research and development, Li Auto has enjoyed the benefits of extended range, and the cost is significantly lower than that of competitors.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a0ce8d4a224bf61d7f6462f03993e35\" tg-width=\"993\" tg-height=\"643\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">But the opposite of being too pragmatic can also be timid. Once the investment is increased, there will inevitably be the possibility of expanding financial losses. Does Ideal have enough courage to break the wrist of a strong man?According to post-hearing information, Li Auto is developing the X platform, which inherits the existing extended-range electric vehicle platform of Ideal ONE and is equipped with a next-generation extended-range electric power system. The company plans to launch its first product on the X platform-a full-size luxury extended-program electric SUV in 2022, and launch two other SUVs on the X platform in 2023.Obviously, one of the ideal focuses is still on the extended-range technology route. Can this solve its long-term concerns?4、epilogueAs a new thing, new energy vehicles are a combination of traditional vehicles and electronic products, carrying the revolutionary ideal of mankind for travel modes. Who can make it to the end in this war depends on technology research and development.In the competition of technology research and development, the first is the strategic direction, and the second is the burning of money and talents.The choice of extended program enabled Ideal to survive the difficulties in the early days of starting a business, successfully survive, and lived well.But relying solely on this technical route, ideals cannot win the future.Ideal said that it is investing heavily in high-voltage pure electric vehicle technology and developing two platforms for future high-voltage pure electric models-Whale and Shark. Starting from 2022, all new models in Li Auto will be equipped with self-developed future L4-level autonomous driving. The necessary hardware compatible is standard, and an \"ideal\" is set-accounting for 20% of the market share within 5 years.The ideal is very plump.Last year, it successfully landed in the U.S. stock market, and now it has come to the Hong Kong stock market. From the perspective of abundant capital, the ideal is settled. The popularity of new energy vehicles since last year has also allowed Ideal to enjoy the highlight of doubling its stock price.But on the issue of talents, the industry is already in a situation of \"too many monks and too few porridge\". Even if Ideal is willing to spend money, can it be guaranteed that talents will be found? Competitors all hold a lot of money in their hands. Compared with throwing money, the ideal may not be able to surely beat anyone?Reality is skinny.The return of the ideal may be the beginning of the real challenge.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The three new energy giants have become undecently rolled</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe three new energy giants have become undecently rolled\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n格隆汇投资学苑 \n2021-07-26 20:29\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nFollow<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>After that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Back, too.On July 26, Hong Kong Stock Exchange documents showed that Li Auto will seek to apply for dual primary listing as an issuer with different voting rights structure through the Hong Kong Stock Exchange listing hearing.Although it is one of the three major new car-making forces in China, compared with the other two, Li Auto seems to be much lower-key, and many operating indicators have no obvious advantages. Can this landing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange become a new starting point for Li Auto, and complete the counterattack in the future competition?1、Business data, not ideal?From the product point of view, Li Auto only has one six-seater medium-to-large<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLX\">Luxurious</a>Electric SUV--Ideal ONE; In terms of sales volume, in 2020, Ideal sold 32,624 vehicles, ranking among the middle of the year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600617\">National New Energy</a>Car sales ranked sixth, accounting for 2.8% of the market share, and ranked third among automakers that only produce new energy vehicles. As of June 30, 2021, Ideal has delivered a total of more than 63,000 Ideal ONEs.Looking at competitors,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>, XPeng has mass-produced more than two automobile products, including SUVs and cars.In 2020, Nio's sales will reach 43,728 vehicles, which is higher than the ideal, while XPeng's sales will reach 27,006 vehicles, which is relatively low.But the difference is that the competitors are all pure electric models, and the ideal extended-range technology route is somewhat touched by the convenience of fuel vehicles.In terms of financial data, Ideal is still at a loss. From 2019 to 2020, Li Auto's total revenue was approximately 284 million yuan and 9.457 billion yuan respectively, and the net losses attributable to ordinary shareholders were 3.282 billion yuan and 792 million yuan respectively. The losses have narrowed, while the gross profit has turned positive.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/129a0d88612f98087ba073834f0e32dc\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"589\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">However, the total revenue in the first three months of 2021 was 3.575 billion yuan, and the net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders was 360 million yuan, an increase of 3.67 times compared with the same period last year.The reason is that R&D expenses and marketing expenses are growing rapidly.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b96932b218d0b2a17d8eb1be2744d78f\" tg-width=\"994\" tg-height=\"592\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">To plan for the future, research and development expenses must be maintained, and marketing expenses are difficult to reduce due to the need to seize the market. In other words, it is difficult for both expenses to be reduced in the short term, so it is still very likely that this year's net loss will exceed last year's.It is difficult to judge when the net profit will turn positive, but this is also a common problem for new domestic forces. If you apply<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>What we have experienced, in the year when the net profit turned positive, the total sales volume was 500,000 vehicles, so the profitability of new domestic forces is still far away. Of course, there is still a big difference between \"Wei Xiaoli\" and Tesla, and forced comparison doesn't make much sense. I just want to explain that there is still a long way to go to truly achieve profitability.However, fortunately, the ideal monthly sales volume continues to grow. In June, it also won the domestic medium and large SUV sales championship, surpassing Nio vehicles in total sales, which is a good development trend.The continued strength of sales depends on Li Auto's layout of sales channels. As of June 30, 2021, it had 97 retail stores in major cities in China, and on July 10, 2021, it opened its 100th retail store. Like Tesla, Ideal locates retail stores in shopping malls that target users may visit, rather than central business districts or landmark buildings.The number of stores of competitor XPeng, including 88 directly-operated stores and 90 franchised stores, totals 178, which is 1.8 times that of Ideal. However, in the first half of this year, the sales volume of Ideal and XPeng was about 30,000 vehicles, which also shows that Ideal has an advantage in terms of single-store sales efficiency.To sum up the above operating indicators and financial data, we only see a relatively good trend of change, and it is difficult to apply conventional value models to quantify investment value.However, Li Auto is on a track of rapid development, sufficient growth dividends, and all developed countries are competing for it, so it must be viewed from a deeper perspective.2、Technical route, solve near-optimalIn the choice of major strategic direction, Li Auto is not too idealistic, but very realistic.At that time, when Tesla decided to make an electric car, it started with a luxurious sports car. What he took a fancy to was the technology tycoons in Silicon Valley, who were rich and willing to try new technologies, and at the same time contributed to environmental protection. The feelings of saving the world.Behind this, it is actually based on the overall consideration of business. The technology of electric vehicles is not yet mature, and the mass production is limited, so the price must be very expensive. If you rush to knock on the door of the grassroots market from the beginning, the result is likely to be shut out, and it is easy to be jointly encircled and suppressed by fuel vehicle manufacturers, and even stillborn.Therefore, it is a safe approach to start from a relatively differentiated market, and later facts also proved the success of Tesla's strategy.The same is true for Li Auto. After sorting out its various strategic thinking contexts, two points are very clear.First,Starting with medium and large SUV models, like Nio, they are interested in market acceptance and price advantage.In the past ten years, SUVs have been sought after by consumers for their strong power and spacious space, and the rising consumption power of Chinese people has supported this SUV boom. Therefore, choosing SUV models to enter the market can well share costs, eliminate the price gap with similar fuel vehicles, and make it easier for consumers to accept new energy vehicles.And second,Technical route of extended range.This is also the most controversial place in Li Auto. Why did Ideal choose this route?Let's take a look at the following pictures first.Comparing the three technical routes, you will find that the extended-range technical route is actually a trick between plug-in hybrid power and HEV hybrid power.It can refuel and charge like a plug-in hybrid. It also has the whole process of generating electricity, reserving, and driving the motor after discharging the fuel engine to provide power. However, it does not have the function of fuel engine directly driving the wheels.It can also be powered by just refueling like an HEV hybrid, and then the fuel vehicle engine generates electricity, but it also does not have the function of the fuel engine directly driving the wheels.Anyone who has driven a fuel vehicle knows that the engine is very noisy when rotating, and the fuel conversion efficiency is not high. Even the best technology can hardly exceed 50%. This is the thermal efficiency problem that fuel vehicles are often criticized. But electric vehicles are different. The noise of motor rotation is much lower than that of fuel engines, and the power conversion efficiency is also higher, often reaching 80-90%.Therefore, the advantage of the extended range is that it not only makes full use of the advantage of the motor instead of the fuel engine as the power source, but also retains the benefit of \"being able to refuel\", which solves the range anxiety of pure electric vehicles, too long charging time, and too few charging piles.In other words, the convenience of using fuel vehicles brings out the superiority of electric vehicles.The new energy vehicle industry is very expensive. Li Bin, the boss of Nio, once famously said:\"If you don't have 20 billion, don't make an electric car.\"Ask realistically, how many start-up car companies can get 20 billion as soon as they sell?Nio himself almost died because of lack of money, so he was qualified to talk about \"ideals\" only if he could survive smoothly. The financing data disclosed by Li Auto before its listing was 14.6 billion. If you blindly burn money into it, it is likely that the car will not even come out, and the company will already hang up.Don't blindly blow the cannon, start from the most pragmatic route, the goal is to survive, and then plan the overall situation of the future. This is the starting point and final destination of ideal strategic thinking.3、Ideal foresight, can it be solved?Like many technology-intensive industries, the choice of technical routes is very important for new energy vehicle companies.From the perspective of short-term survival, there is nothing wrong with the ideal choice of the extended-range technology route, and facts have proved its correctness. In terms of annual sales, it is second only to Tesla and Nio, and its gross profit margin and net profit margin are also significantly ahead of Nio and XPeng.But people have no near worries, but they must have far-sighted worries.For Li Auto, this long-term consideration is the pure electric technology route.From the long-term development trend of new energy vehicles, pure electricity is inevitable. It can better solve human dependence on oil and provide support for more intelligent applications. Although the problems of range anxiety and charging convenience have not yet been solved. It is well solved, but with the development of technology, it is not impossible to solve these problems. This is why although the extended-range route has advantages, it is not favored by many car companies, especially giants.The automotive industry prefers to regard range extension as a transitional solution rather than the ultimate solution.In terms of pure electric technology, Ideal has no advantage, and so far no pure electric model has been interviewed. Although in terms of strategic planning, Ideal has realized the importance of pure electric lines and focused on high-voltage fast charging technology, the first pure electric model will not be launched until 2023 at the earliest.The effect is unknown, but technology and market changes are changing with each passing day. Although the penetration rate is still in the growth range, the competition for pure electric vehicles has become very daytime. All kinds of \"immortals\", traditional, new, and cross-border, are shirtless. If it is difficult to compete, how much time does Li Auto have to spend? If it cannot quickly make a breakthrough on the pure electric technology route and ideally gain benefits on the extended-range route, how long can it be squandered?In research and development, Li Auto has enjoyed the benefits of extended range, and the cost is significantly lower than that of competitors.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a0ce8d4a224bf61d7f6462f03993e35\" tg-width=\"993\" tg-height=\"643\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">But the opposite of being too pragmatic can also be timid. Once the investment is increased, there will inevitably be the possibility of expanding financial losses. Does Ideal have enough courage to break the wrist of a strong man?According to post-hearing information, Li Auto is developing the X platform, which inherits the existing extended-range electric vehicle platform of Ideal ONE and is equipped with a next-generation extended-range electric power system. The company plans to launch its first product on the X platform-a full-size luxury extended-program electric SUV in 2022, and launch two other SUVs on the X platform in 2023.Obviously, one of the ideal focuses is still on the extended-range technology route. Can this solve its long-term concerns?4、epilogueAs a new thing, new energy vehicles are a combination of traditional vehicles and electronic products, carrying the revolutionary ideal of mankind for travel modes. Who can make it to the end in this war depends on technology research and development.In the competition of technology research and development, the first is the strategic direction, and the second is the burning of money and talents.The choice of extended program enabled Ideal to survive the difficulties in the early days of starting a business, successfully survive, and lived well.But relying solely on this technical route, ideals cannot win the future.Ideal said that it is investing heavily in high-voltage pure electric vehicle technology and developing two platforms for future high-voltage pure electric models-Whale and Shark. Starting from 2022, all new models in Li Auto will be equipped with self-developed future L4-level autonomous driving. The necessary hardware compatible is standard, and an \"ideal\" is set-accounting for 20% of the market share within 5 years.The ideal is very plump.Last year, it successfully landed in the U.S. stock market, and now it has come to the Hong Kong stock market. From the perspective of abundant capital, the ideal is settled. The popularity of new energy vehicles since last year has also allowed Ideal to enjoy the highlight of doubling its stock price.But on the issue of talents, the industry is already in a situation of \"too many monks and too few porridge\". Even if Ideal is willing to spend money, can it be guaranteed that talents will be found? Competitors all hold a lot of money in their hands. Compared with throwing money, the ideal may not be able to surely beat anyone?Reality is skinny.The return of the ideal may be the beginning of the real challenge.\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edb5904d62b10798f760277be625646d","relate_stocks":{"160640":"新能源","399941":"新能源","NIO":"蔚来","09868":"小鹏汽车-W","LI":"理想汽车","000941.SH":"新能源","XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108257936","content_text":"继小鹏汽车之后，理想汽车也回来了。\n7月26日，港交所文件显示，理想汽车通过港交所上市聆讯，将寻求作为具有不同投票权架构的发行人申请双重主要上市。\n虽然是国内三大造车新势力之一，但相比另外两个，理想汽车似乎要低调很多，诸多的经营指标也没有明显的优势，此次登陆港交所，又能否成为理想汽车新的起点，并在未来的竞争中完成逆袭？\n1、经营数据，理不理想？\n从产品上看，理想汽车只有一款六座中大型豪华电动SUV--理想ONE；销量上，2020年，理想卖出了32624辆，名列年度中国新能源汽车销量第六位，占市场份额2.8%，在仅生产新能源汽车的汽车制造商中排名第三。截至2021年6月30日，理想一共交付超过63000辆理想ONE。\n反观竞争对手，蔚来、小鹏都已量产两款以上的汽车产品，包括SUV和轿车，2020年蔚来的销量达到43728辆，高于理想，小鹏则是27006辆，相对低一点。但不同的是，竞争对手的都是纯电车型，而理想的增程式技术路线，多少沾了燃油车的方便性。\n在财务数据上，理想仍处于亏损状态。2019-2020年，理想汽车总收入分别约为2.84亿、94.57亿元，归属普通股东的净亏损分别为32.82亿元、7.92亿元，亏损有所收窄，而毛利上已经转正。\n\n但2021年前三个月总收入35.75亿元，归属普通股东的净亏损3.6亿元，相比去年同期，扩大了3.67倍，原因在于研发费用和营销费用增长较快。\n\n要布局未来，研发费用就得维持，而出于抢占市场的需要，营销费用也很难减少。换言之，两项费用短期内都有很难降下来，所以预计今年的净亏损额超过去年的可能性还很高。\n何时能够实现净利润转正，不好下判断，但这也是国内新势力普遍存在的问题。如果套用特斯拉经历的事情，净利润实现转正的那一年，总销量是50万辆，那国内新势力的盈利道路，还遥远得很。当然，“蔚小理”和特斯拉差别还很大，强行对比并没有太多意义，只是想说明，要真正实现盈利，道路还很漫长。\n不过，好在理想的月度销量还在持续增长，6月份还拿下了国内中大型SUV销量冠军，在总销量上也超越蔚来汽车，在发展趋势上是不错的。\n销售的持续给力，有赖于理想汽车在销售渠道方面的布局。截至2021年6月30日，在中国主要城市拥有97家零售门店，2021年7月10日，开设了第100家零售店。和特斯拉一样，理想将零售门店选址在目标用户可能光顾的购物中心，而非中心商业区或地标性建筑。\n而竞争对手小鹏的门店数量，包括直营店88家，特许经营店90家，合计178家，是理想的1.8倍，但是今年上半年理想和小鹏的销量都是3万辆左右，这也表明在单店销售效率上，理想是有优势的。\n综上的经营指标和财务数据，只是看到一个相对不错的变化趋势，很难套用常规的价值模型去量化投资价值。\n但理想汽车，正处于一个快速发展、增长红利很足且各发达国家都在争抢的赛道，所以得从更深层次的角度去看待它。\n2、技术路线，解决近优\n在重大的战略方向选择上，理想汽车并没有过多的理想主义，而是非常的现实。\n当年，特斯拉在决定做电动车时，是从豪华的跑车切入，看中的不过是硅谷的科技富豪们，既有钱，又乐意尝试新科技的心理，同时还有一份为环保贡献力量的济世情怀。\n这背后，其实是基于商业的通盘考虑，电动车技术尚未成熟，加上量产有限，价格必定很贵，如果一开始就贸贸然去敲基层市场的大门，结果大概率是吃闭门羹，而且很容易被燃油车厂联合围剿，甚至胎死腹中。\n所以，从相对差异化的市场入手，不失为一个稳妥做法，后来的事实也证明特斯拉这个战略的成功。\n理想汽车也一样，梳理一下它的各种战略思维脉络，有两点非常清晰。\n第一，从中大型SUV车型入手，和蔚来一样，它们看中的正是市场接受度和价格优势。过去十年，SUV凭借着强劲的动力、宽敞的空间，受到消费者的追捧，而国人不断上升的消费力则支撑起了这股SUV热潮。因此，选择SUV车型打入市场，能够很好地平摊成本，消除和同类型燃油车的价格差距，使得消费者更容易接受新能源汽车。\n第二，增程式的技术路线。这点也是理想汽车争议最多的地方，到底理想为何会选择这个路线？\n先看看下面几张图。\n三种技术路线一对比，你会发现，增程式技术路线其实是在插电式混合动力和HEV混合动力中间取了巧。\n它可以像插电式混动那样加油充电两不误，也具备通过燃油发动机发电、储备、放电后带动电机从而提供动力的全过程，但它没有燃油发动机直接带动车轮的功能。\n它也可以像HEV混动那样仅仅通过加油，然后由燃油车发动机发电提供动力，但它同样没有燃油发动机直接带动车轮的功能。\n开过燃油车的人都知道，发动机转动时噪音很大，而且燃油的转化效率并不高，即使最牛的技术，也很难超过50%，这正是燃油车常常被诟病的热效率问题。但电动车就不一样，电机转动的噪音比燃油发动机低很多，动力转换效率也更高，常常可以达到80-90%。\n所以，增程式的优势就在于，既充分利用了电机代替燃油发动机作为动力来源的优势，又保留了“可以加油”的好处，这就解决纯电车型里程焦虑、充电时间过长、充电桩太少的问题。\n换句话说，就是用燃油车的方便性，开出了电动车的优越性。\n新能源车这个行当非常烧钱，蔚来的老板李斌有过一句名言：“没有200亿，不要做电动车。”\n实事求是地问，有多少创业车企一出手就能拿到200亿？\n蔚来自己都差点因为缺钱挂掉，所以能够顺利活下来，才有资格去谈“理想”。理想汽车上市前披露的融资数据，是146亿，如果盲目地烧钱进去，很可能车都没出来，公司就已经挂了。\n不盲目吹大炮，从最务实的路线出发，目标是活下来，再谋划未来的大局，这正是理想做战略思考的出发点，也是最终归宿。\n3、理想的远虑，能解决吗？\n和很多技术密集型行业一样，技术路线的选择对于新能源汽车公司来说，非常重要。\n从短期活下来的角度看，理想选择增程式技术路线无可否非，事实也证明它的正确性，年度销量上，它仅次于特斯拉和蔚来，毛利率和净利率也大幅领先蔚来和小鹏。\n但人无近忧，必有远虑。\n对于理想汽车，这个远虑，就是纯电技术路线。\n从长远的新能源车发展趋势上，纯电是必然，它能更好地解决人类对于石油的依赖，以及为更多智能化的落地运用提供支撑，虽然里程焦虑、充电便利性问题至今还没有很好地解决，但随着技术的发展，要解决这些问题并非不可能。这也正是增程式路线虽然有优势，但也并没有受到太多车企尤其是巨头的青睐的原因，汽车界更愿意将增程式视为过渡方案，而不是终极方案。\n在纯电技术上，理想并没有优势，至今也没有一辆纯电车型面试。虽然在战略规划上，理想已经意识纯电路线的重要性，重点押注了高压快充技术，但最快也得2023年才能推出首款纯电车型。\n效果如何未可知，但技术和市场的变化日新月异，虽然渗透率还处在增长区间，但纯电车竞争已非常白日化，各路“神仙”，传统的、新的、跨界的，都赤膊上阵，争得不好开交，理想汽车还有多少时间去消耗，如果不能在纯电技术路线上迅速取得突破，理想在增程式路线上获得好处，还能挥霍多久？\n在研发，理想汽车吃过增程式的好处，费用上大幅低于竞争对手。\n\n但过分务实的反面，也可以是畏首畏尾，一旦加大投入，财务上必然会出现亏损扩大的可能性，理想又有没有足够的魄力去壮士断腕？\n据聆讯后资料显示，理想汽车正在开发X平台，它继承了理想ONE现有的增程序电动汽车平台，并配备了下一代增程电动动力系统。公司计划于2022年推出X平台上的首款产品——全尺寸豪华增程序电动SUV，并于2023年在X平台上推出另外两款SUV。\n很明显，理想的重点之一仍然在增程式技术路线上，这能够解决它的远虑吗？\n4、结语\n新能源汽车作为新生事物，是传统汽车和电子产品的合体，承载了人类对出行方式的革命理想，谁能够在这场大战中走到最后，取决于技术研发。\n而技术研发比拼的，首先是战略方向，其次才是烧钱和人才。\n增程式的选择令理想度过了创业初期的艰难，成功地活下来，而且活得还不错。但仅仅依靠这个技术路线，理想不可能赢得未来。\n理想表示正大力投资高压纯电动汽车技术，为未来的高压纯电动车型开发两个平台—Whale及Shark，并自2022年起，理想汽车的所有新车型将配有与自主开发的未来L4级自动驾驶兼容的必要硬件作为标配，并立下“理想”--5年内占20%市场份额。\n理想很丰满。\n去年顺利登陆美股，现在又来到港股，从资本充裕的角度，理想是有着落了。而去年至今新能源汽车的火热，也让理想享受了股价翻倍的高光。\n但在人才的问题，行业已经是“僧多粥少”的情况，即使理想愿意砸钱，就能够保证一定找得到人才吗？竞争对手个个都手握重金，比砸钱，理想不一定能稳赢过谁？\n现实很骨感。\n理想的回归，或许才是真正挑战的开始。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"160640":0.9,"399941":0.9,"000941.SH":0.9,"XPEV":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"09868":0.9,"LI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3009,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":5334867,"commentId":"5334867","gmtCreate":1627304120455,"gmtModify":1663231516846,"authorId":3567334721242358,"author":{"id":3567334721242358,"idStr":"3567334721242358","authorId":3567334721242358,"name":"MyKhoo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71f130b587a20deffeafc3a3dd2f3d5b","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c5ceab71416b120bab4604c0754b52a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"ind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