To The Moon

NVDA: Two more directors sold shares at around 230 on 1 March, according to the latest form-4 filings. They sure thank retail for buying into the AI narrative.

What's That?

A rising wedge is a technical indicator, suggesting a reversal pattern frequently seen in bear markets. This pattern shows up in charts when the price moves upward with pivot highs and lows converging toward a single point known as the apex. When it is accompanied by declining volume, it can signal a trend reversal and a continuation of the bear market.

Declining volume is a giveaway 

The Breakdown

One thing experienced traders love about this pattern is that once the breakdown happens, the target is reached very quickly. Unlike other patterns, where confirmation must be shown before a trade is taken, wedges often do not need confirmations; they normally break and drop fast to their targets.

Is a Rising Wedge Bullish or Bearish?

A rising wedge is generally a bearish signal as it indicates a possible reversal during an uptrend. Rising wedge patterns indicate the likelihood of falling prices after a breakout through the lower trendline.

How Reliable Are Rising Wedges?

There remains debate over the long-run usefulness of technical patterns like wedges. Research does suggest that wedge patterns reveal consistent indicators, though there is no single guaranteed signal for entry or exit.

Gap fill zone & weaker strength detected

What Does a Rising Wedge Mean?

A rising wedge is often considered a bearish chart pattern that points to a reversal after a bull trend. A rising wedge is believed to signal an imminent breakout to the downside. Like other wedges, the pattern begins wide towards the bottom and contracts as the price moves higher and the trading range narrows. However, the indicator is the opposite of a falling wedge that indicates potential upside.

The Bottom Line

Rising wedges have a relatively low risk/high reward ratio and, as a result, they are a favorite among professional technical traders. There are many false patterns or patterns in disguise that may come off as rising wedges that investors be wary of. The only way to differentiate a true rising wedge from a false one is by finding price/volume divergences and to make sure that the failure is still under the 50% Fibonacci retrace.

Fibonacci retracement

⚠️ Trading Tips: Just wait for the breakout. First profit target will be the gap fill zone highlighted between 211 to 224. Fib retracement have to wait as the top is not yet confirmed until the plunge. 😉

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