To The Moon

U.S. memory and storage equities experienced a powerful surge during the mid-August trading sessions, driven by a confluence of geopolitical policy shifts and massive capital allocation commitments from leading South Korean semiconductor giants. Washington’s direct policy intervention advising domestic technology enterprises against procuring memory components from Chinese suppliers — specifically targeting DRAM from CXMT and NAND flash from YMTC—has effectively created a protective moat around domestic and allied suppliers. In this article, we would like to share how investors can navigate this memory and storage rally, on short-term sentiment, especially concurrently, South Korea's $SK hynix(SKHY)$ SK Hynix and

💾Memory stocks bounced: SK Hynix +4.4%, Micron +4.0%, SanDisk +2.0%, while the inverse SNDQ fell −4.5%. The driver wasn’t demand, but payouts — SK Hynix confirmed a ₩40tn buyback, and Samsung pledged 50% of free cash flow.🐯 The bull case is dividends & torque. The bear case is downstream cost pressure — Xiaomi’s profit dented, Intel GPU prices +48%. My view: I’d wait for downstream acceptance before chasing. Without proof that end‑users can absorb higher costs, the rebound looks fragile.[Duh] @JC888 @Barcode @Aqa @DiAngel

$SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$   SanDisk (SNDK) Key Investor Day Conference Announcement Information Sandisk's long-term financial guidance is exceptionally bullish, signaling a structural shift in its business model and strong conviction in the sustained demand driven by the AI infrastructure buildout. The company is projecting industry-leading growth and profitability by securing long-term customer commitments, moving away from the volatile spot market that historically defined the memory industry. Key Information Here is a breakdown of the three major components of Sandisk's announcement: 1. Revenue Growth Outlook: Mid-to-High-Teens CAGR (FY2028-2030) What it means: Sandisk expects its annual revenue to grow at a com

Yesterday’s biggest positive was Treasury intervention in the bond market. The US Treasury announced that it will double long-duration bond buybacks to at least US$4 billion per operation from September through early November. The move followed the 30-year Treasury yield reaching nearly 5.34%, its highest in almost two decades.  That is meaningful relief, but I would not interpret it as the end of the bond problem. The underlying issues—US fiscal deficits, inflation and enormous AI infrastructure financing requirements—remain unresolved. They showed that “many” policymakers believe higher rates may ultimately be required if inflation does not continue falling, while three policymakers had already voted for a 25 bp hike at the July meeting. The current policy rate remains 3.50%–3.75%.

Hello. The Treasury's buyback tool was upsized again, and the bond market bought it for half a day. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said on Thursday that the size of each long-dated Treasury buyback had gone from US$2 billion to at least US$4 billion, and could rise further. The 30-year yield fell as much as 10 basis points and the dollar index weakened — and then the bond market pushed back. The reason is simple enough: buybacks deal with liquidity, while the deficit, inflation and the term premium have not moved at all. There was a new variable that day: the consumer. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed down 0.87 per cent and $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ 1.32 per cent, about 600 points — Barro

I would buy SK Hynix on weakness, rather than step away from memory. My preference is SK Hynix > Samsung > avoiding the sector. The key distinction is that SK Hynix's payout is not simply management saying, "we have run out of attractive investments". It is explicitly buying and cancelling 40 trillion won of shares, while raising its target to return more than 50% of 2025-27 cumulative FCF. That is a direct reduction in share count and a strong signal management believes the stock is undervalued.  Samsung is potentially even more interesting as a value + dividend play, but the >100 trillion won figure remains a media report awaiting board approval. The reported plan would allocate 50% of FCF to shareholders, with dividends expected to dominate.  I don't see the payouts a

1. Q3 Performance Drivers: CapEx Discipline vs. Cash Generation The memory market moving into Q3 is defined by a shift from pure volume expansion to high-margin product mix, specifically driven by High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and enterprise SSDs (eSSDs). Capital Discipline & Pricing Power Historically, memory upturns prompted aggressive capital expenditures (CapEx) into new wafer capacity, inevitably leading to oversupply. The current commitment by both mega-cap memory makers to direct at least 50% of Free Cash Flow back to shareholders fundamentally caps unconstrained supply expansion: Controlled Bit Growth: By locking half of FCF into buybacks and dividends, both firms limit the capital available for greenfield fab building, keeping market bit growth tight through Q3. Pricing Leverage

Hello. The long end, which had been pressing on everything for three days, got held down on Wednesday. The 30-year Treasury yield first set a 19-year high intraday, then turned back after the US Treasury said it would at least double the size of its liquidity support buybacks in 10- to 30-year securities. The 30-year fell as much as 9 basis points to 5.19 per cent, closed near 5.20 per cent, and is down to 5.18 per cent today. But technology did not come back. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ closed up 0.21 per cent and $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ 0.22 per cent, and most of that came from healthcare while tech kept being sold. One headline put it plainly: the tech sell-off resumed an

Investors closely track Big Tech’s quarterly capital expenditures, but reported CapEx only captures part of the AI buildout. Nine major technology companies reportedly have about $3 trillion in future lease, chip-purchase and infrastructure commitments that are not yet fully reflected on their balance sheets. 1. Where Did the $3 Trillion Come From? According to a Wall Street Journal analysis of financial-statement footnotes, nine major technology companies reported roughly $600 billion in combined CapEx over their latest 12-month periods. However, their broader future commitments approach $3 trillion, including approximately: $1.2 trillion in data-center leases that have not yet commenced; $1.9 trillion in long-term purchase agreements covering chips, memory, power and other infrastructure

JPMorgan's memory call isn't a rotation story — it's a "the correction was wrong" story The framing matters here. This wasn't JPMorgan discovering memory as some new Nvidia-adjacent trade — it's JPMorgan's Jay Kwon calling the recent 25% memory correction a mistake, made on Monday, two trading days before Tuesday's bounce. His thesis has two legs: supply-demand shortage persists for two more years, and — the more interesting part — memory demand is broadening from GPU to CPU in a way he thinks the market has underpriced. That's a different claim than "AI cycle strength is spilling over." It's "the market already knew this conceptually but hasn't modeled the actual volume impact." That's why Tuesday's move (SK Hynix +4.7%, SanDisk +2.68%, Micron +0.87%, SOXL +2.31%) reads as a reset of Q3 e

A mild PPI report pushed the S&P 500 to another record close, but the real story overnight was the widening gap within tech. SNDK surged 13.7% after unveiling its long-term growth targets through 2030, lifting WDC and MU with it. Meanwhile, COHR, Cisco and AMAT all delivered solid results—but their stocks were not rewarded. Investors still want AI exposure, but they are no longer paying higher prices for growth that is already widely expected. S&P 500 Hits Another Record as PPI Eases Rate-Hike Fears All three major U.S. indices closed higher overnight: The immediate catalyst was the July U.S. Producer Price Index. Headline PPI was unchanged from the previous month, easing concerns about another inflation rebound. Goods prices declined 0.7%, including a 3.1% drop in energy prices, o

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Should I buy ? Or wait 

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SK hynix remains one of my top AI semiconductor picks, supported by strong HBM demand, leading HBM technology, and continued growth in AI data-center investment. I expect earnings growth to remain strong, although short-term volatility is likely due to high market expectations and memory-cycle risks.

2027 Memory Outlook: HBM/DRAM Remain Tight, While NAND Supply Eases The memory market may begin to diverge in 2027. TrendForce expects NAND Flash to remain undersupplied throughout 2026, with an estimated supply deficit of 4–5%. However, as new capacity and more advanced NAND production ramp up, supply could begin exceeding demand in the second half of 2027—particularly if smartphone and notebook demand remains weak. This does not mean NAND demand is collapsing. AI data centres continue to drive strong demand for enterprise SSDs and high-capacity storage. The concern is that supply may eventually grow faster than demand, reducing NAND manufacturers’ pricing power. Investment implications: • SK Hynix $SK hynix(SKHY)$  remains best positio

Hello. In the last piece Nvidia was out raising up to US$500 billion for AI infrastructure and the market had started asking where the money would come from. Last night we got half an answer: the money is there, but the people putting it up and the people spending it went in opposite directions. The providers all rose: KKR up 6.88 per cent, Apollo 6.26 per cent, Brookfield 4.77 per cent, Blackstone 3.89 per cent and BlackRock 1.54 per cent. The spenders fell for a second day: Alphabet down 3.61 per cent, its fourth decline in five sessions; $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ down 2.09 per cent, $Broadcom(AVGO)$ 1.5 per cent, $Apple(AAP

AI hardware stocks have suffered a sharp valuation reset, but the latest earnings show that underlying infrastructure demand remains strong. CoreWeave’s revenue backlog reached $104.2 billion, while Super Micro guided for up to $72 billion in annual revenue. The key bottlenecks are increasingly power, cooling, networking and financing—not a lack of AI orders AI Infrastructure Rebounds After Hours U.S. stocks ended the latest session lower as investors remained cautious ahead of the July CPI report: S&P 500: −0.32% Nasdaq Composite: −0.60% Dow Jones: −0.34% However, several AI infrastructure names rebounded after the close: $CoreWeave(CRWV)$: up more than 14% after hours $Super Micro Computer(SMCI)$: u

What is the go with this ? All is it all a rouse to tank the price then the big fish scoop it all up? [Miser]  

I was too fearful to touch SK hynix, or other mem stocks at elevated prices for that matter.  I did however get in and out long MU, for a small gain. not trying to rub salt into your wounds, just making the point that if you are long now, be careful as we get closer to October and chance of rate increase becomes higher.

U.S. memory and storage equities experienced a powerful surge during the mid-August trading sessions, driven by a confluence of geopolitical policy shifts and massive capital allocation commitments from leading South Korean semiconductor giants. Washington’s direct policy intervention advising domestic technology enterprises against procuring memory components from Chinese suppliers — specifically targeting DRAM from CXMT and NAND flash from YMTC—has effectively created a protective moat around domestic and allied suppliers. In this article, we would like to share how investors can navigate this memory and storage rally, on short-term sentiment, especially concurrently, South Korea's $SK hynix(SKHY)$ SK Hynix and

$SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$   SanDisk (SNDK) Key Investor Day Conference Announcement Information Sandisk's long-term financial guidance is exceptionally bullish, signaling a structural shift in its business model and strong conviction in the sustained demand driven by the AI infrastructure buildout. The company is projecting industry-leading growth and profitability by securing long-term customer commitments, moving away from the volatile spot market that historically defined the memory industry. Key Information Here is a breakdown of the three major components of Sandisk's announcement: 1. Revenue Growth Outlook: Mid-to-High-Teens CAGR (FY2028-2030) What it means: Sandisk expects its annual revenue to grow at a com

Hello. The Treasury's buyback tool was upsized again, and the bond market bought it for half a day. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said on Thursday that the size of each long-dated Treasury buyback had gone from US$2 billion to at least US$4 billion, and could rise further. The 30-year yield fell as much as 10 basis points and the dollar index weakened — and then the bond market pushed back. The reason is simple enough: buybacks deal with liquidity, while the deficit, inflation and the term premium have not moved at all. There was a new variable that day: the consumer. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed down 0.87 per cent and $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ 1.32 per cent, about 600 points — Barro

💾Memory stocks bounced: SK Hynix +4.4%, Micron +4.0%, SanDisk +2.0%, while the inverse SNDQ fell −4.5%. The driver wasn’t demand, but payouts — SK Hynix confirmed a ₩40tn buyback, and Samsung pledged 50% of free cash flow.🐯 The bull case is dividends & torque. The bear case is downstream cost pressure — Xiaomi’s profit dented, Intel GPU prices +48%. My view: I’d wait for downstream acceptance before chasing. Without proof that end‑users can absorb higher costs, the rebound looks fragile.[Duh] @JC888 @Barcode @Aqa @DiAngel

1. Q3 Performance Drivers: CapEx Discipline vs. Cash Generation The memory market moving into Q3 is defined by a shift from pure volume expansion to high-margin product mix, specifically driven by High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and enterprise SSDs (eSSDs). Capital Discipline & Pricing Power Historically, memory upturns prompted aggressive capital expenditures (CapEx) into new wafer capacity, inevitably leading to oversupply. The current commitment by both mega-cap memory makers to direct at least 50% of Free Cash Flow back to shareholders fundamentally caps unconstrained supply expansion: Controlled Bit Growth: By locking half of FCF into buybacks and dividends, both firms limit the capital available for greenfield fab building, keeping market bit growth tight through Q3. Pricing Leverage

Hello. The long end, which had been pressing on everything for three days, got held down on Wednesday. The 30-year Treasury yield first set a 19-year high intraday, then turned back after the US Treasury said it would at least double the size of its liquidity support buybacks in 10- to 30-year securities. The 30-year fell as much as 9 basis points to 5.19 per cent, closed near 5.20 per cent, and is down to 5.18 per cent today. But technology did not come back. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ closed up 0.21 per cent and $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ 0.22 per cent, and most of that came from healthcare while tech kept being sold. One headline put it plainly: the tech sell-off resumed an

Yesterday’s biggest positive was Treasury intervention in the bond market. The US Treasury announced that it will double long-duration bond buybacks to at least US$4 billion per operation from September through early November. The move followed the 30-year Treasury yield reaching nearly 5.34%, its highest in almost two decades.  That is meaningful relief, but I would not interpret it as the end of the bond problem. The underlying issues—US fiscal deficits, inflation and enormous AI infrastructure financing requirements—remain unresolved. They showed that “many” policymakers believe higher rates may ultimately be required if inflation does not continue falling, while three policymakers had already voted for a 25 bp hike at the July meeting. The current policy rate remains 3.50%–3.75%.

I would buy SK Hynix on weakness, rather than step away from memory. My preference is SK Hynix > Samsung > avoiding the sector. The key distinction is that SK Hynix's payout is not simply management saying, "we have run out of attractive investments". It is explicitly buying and cancelling 40 trillion won of shares, while raising its target to return more than 50% of 2025-27 cumulative FCF. That is a direct reduction in share count and a strong signal management believes the stock is undervalued.  Samsung is potentially even more interesting as a value + dividend play, but the >100 trillion won figure remains a media report awaiting board approval. The reported plan would allocate 50% of FCF to shareholders, with dividends expected to dominate.  I don't see the payouts a

Investors closely track Big Tech’s quarterly capital expenditures, but reported CapEx only captures part of the AI buildout. Nine major technology companies reportedly have about $3 trillion in future lease, chip-purchase and infrastructure commitments that are not yet fully reflected on their balance sheets. 1. Where Did the $3 Trillion Come From? According to a Wall Street Journal analysis of financial-statement footnotes, nine major technology companies reported roughly $600 billion in combined CapEx over their latest 12-month periods. However, their broader future commitments approach $3 trillion, including approximately: $1.2 trillion in data-center leases that have not yet commenced; $1.9 trillion in long-term purchase agreements covering chips, memory, power and other infrastructure

A mild PPI report pushed the S&P 500 to another record close, but the real story overnight was the widening gap within tech. SNDK surged 13.7% after unveiling its long-term growth targets through 2030, lifting WDC and MU with it. Meanwhile, COHR, Cisco and AMAT all delivered solid results—but their stocks were not rewarded. Investors still want AI exposure, but they are no longer paying higher prices for growth that is already widely expected. S&P 500 Hits Another Record as PPI Eases Rate-Hike Fears All three major U.S. indices closed higher overnight: The immediate catalyst was the July U.S. Producer Price Index. Headline PPI was unchanged from the previous month, easing concerns about another inflation rebound. Goods prices declined 0.7%, including a 3.1% drop in energy prices, o

AI hardware stocks have suffered a sharp valuation reset, but the latest earnings show that underlying infrastructure demand remains strong. CoreWeave’s revenue backlog reached $104.2 billion, while Super Micro guided for up to $72 billion in annual revenue. The key bottlenecks are increasingly power, cooling, networking and financing—not a lack of AI orders AI Infrastructure Rebounds After Hours U.S. stocks ended the latest session lower as investors remained cautious ahead of the July CPI report: S&P 500: −0.32% Nasdaq Composite: −0.60% Dow Jones: −0.34% However, several AI infrastructure names rebounded after the close: $CoreWeave(CRWV)$: up more than 14% after hours $Super Micro Computer(SMCI)$: u

Hello. In the last piece Nvidia was out raising up to US$500 billion for AI infrastructure and the market had started asking where the money would come from. Last night we got half an answer: the money is there, but the people putting it up and the people spending it went in opposite directions. The providers all rose: KKR up 6.88 per cent, Apollo 6.26 per cent, Brookfield 4.77 per cent, Blackstone 3.89 per cent and BlackRock 1.54 per cent. The spenders fell for a second day: Alphabet down 3.61 per cent, its fourth decline in five sessions; $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ down 2.09 per cent, $Broadcom(AVGO)$ 1.5 per cent, $Apple(AAP

JPMorgan's memory call isn't a rotation story — it's a "the correction was wrong" story The framing matters here. This wasn't JPMorgan discovering memory as some new Nvidia-adjacent trade — it's JPMorgan's Jay Kwon calling the recent 25% memory correction a mistake, made on Monday, two trading days before Tuesday's bounce. His thesis has two legs: supply-demand shortage persists for two more years, and — the more interesting part — memory demand is broadening from GPU to CPU in a way he thinks the market has underpriced. That's a different claim than "AI cycle strength is spilling over." It's "the market already knew this conceptually but hasn't modeled the actual volume impact." That's why Tuesday's move (SK Hynix +4.7%, SanDisk +2.68%, Micron +0.87%, SOXL +2.31%) reads as a reset of Q3 e

$SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$   $SK hynix(SKHY)$   Comparison Between SanDisk (SNDK) and SK Hynix (SKHY) SanDisk (SNDK) Prediction and Market Outlook SanDisk Corporation (NASDAQ: SNDK) has a consensus Buy rating, with Wall Street analysts projecting an average 12-month price target of $2,144.14. Forecasts range widely from a low of $1,000 to a high of $3,250, with recent structural shifts toward high-margin, long-term AI infrastructure contracts driving massive bullish revisions. The storage and memory sector has experienced significant momentum, propelled by soaring demand for artificial intelligence data center hardware and storage shortage

2027 Memory Outlook: HBM/DRAM Remain Tight, While NAND Supply Eases The memory market may begin to diverge in 2027. TrendForce expects NAND Flash to remain undersupplied throughout 2026, with an estimated supply deficit of 4–5%. However, as new capacity and more advanced NAND production ramp up, supply could begin exceeding demand in the second half of 2027—particularly if smartphone and notebook demand remains weak. This does not mean NAND demand is collapsing. AI data centres continue to drive strong demand for enterprise SSDs and high-capacity storage. The concern is that supply may eventually grow faster than demand, reducing NAND manufacturers’ pricing power. Investment implications: • SK Hynix $SK hynix(SKHY)$  remains best positio

$IBM(IBM)$   The Case for IBM versus SNDK (SanDisk) International Business Machines Corporation will report second-quarter 2026 results on July 22, 2026 Post-Mkt; the market now weighs a consensus revenue view near 17.86 billion US dollars against management’s preliminary update of 17.20 billion US dollars and looks for clarity on large-deal timing, margin resilience, and AI monetization. Market Forecast Consensus for the current quarter points to revenue of 17.86 billion US dollars, adjusted EPS of 3.02, and EBIT of 3.74 billion US dollars, implying year-over-year increases of 7.70%, 14.34%, and 19.17%, respectively. By contrast, the company’s preliminary update calls for revenue of 17.20 billion US dollars (up

$SK hynix(SKHY)$   Comparison Between SanDisk (SNDK) and SK Hynix (SKHY) SanDisk (SNDK) Prediction and Market Outlook SanDisk Corporation (NASDAQ: SNDK) has a consensus Buy rating, with Wall Street analysts projecting an average 12-month price target of $2,144.14. Forecasts range widely from a low of $1,000 to a high of $3,250, with recent structural shifts toward high-margin, long-term AI infrastructure contracts driving massive bullish revisions. The storage and memory sector has experienced significant momentum, propelled by soaring demand for artificial intelligence data center hardware and storage shortages. SanDisk’s business model is transitioning from a cyclical commodity toward structural, contract-bac

Every week, Owen talks through some of the trading opportunities and strategies in the current market that are worth watching. This time we won't dwell on preliminaries and will get straight to the point. I believe there are two main opportunities to focus on this time: First, the crude oil crack spread has now surged to a historic extreme. How to find the right timing to short the spread is a highly noteworthy profit opportunity. Second, U.S. equities are currently stuck in a high-level, range-bound pattern. With tonight's upcoming CPI data as a catalyst, how should we use an options straddle strategy to bet on a return of volatility? This is likewise an opportunity worth exploring. Let's look at them one by one. $标普500(.SPX)$

The week of July 21 to 25 is the single most instructive week in the memory supercycle so far. Not because of the Tuesday gains. Because of what happened on Friday. Understanding both moves together tells you more about how to trade this sector than any analyst note written this year. Here is the full sequence. Memory stocks fell 25% across July to their lows. Monday July 20 saw a 4 to 6% snap-back as no fresh Korea headlines appeared over the weekend. Then Tuesday exploded: SNDK surged 14.27%, SKHY ADR jumped 13.75%, MU climbed 12.17%, WDC was up 12%, the DRAM ETF gained 11%. The catalyst was a Morgan Stanley report forecasting a 25% memory price increase from Q2 to Q3, with the firm explicitly stating it was buying the dip. BofA called the slump a summer reset. Semiconductor ETFs absorbe

$SK hynix(SKHY)$ has fallen from a high of US$194.80 to US$126.29, down about 35%. The drop has been even more painful for $CSOP SK Hynix Daily (2x) Leveraged Product(07709)$ , which has fallen from HK$193.65 to HK$25.28, a loss of nearly 87% from its peak. SK Hynix reported record quarterly revenue and operating profit, but both still missed Wall Street expectations. That was enough to trigger another sharp swing in the stock. There is also a major change coming for leveraged ETF investors Starting August 3, CSOP’s single-stock leveraged and inverse products will move to a flexible leverage model. These products will no longer aim for a fixed 2x or -2x daily return. Instead, 2x will be the maximum, and