To The Moon

TLT vs IEF: Is It Time to Bet on Longer-Dated Bonds? As Treasury yields fall and equity markets face renewed pressure, US government bonds are attracting attention. But the rally in long-duration bonds raises an important question: is the market pricing in slower growth, or simply seeking safety? IEF, which tracks 7–10-year US Treasury bonds, gained 1.08%, while TLT, which tracks 20+ year Treasuries, climbed 1.87%. The 10-year Treasury yield fell more than 17 basis points to 4.972%, its lowest level since September 23. Why TLT Is Outperforming TLT is more sensitive to interest-rate changes because its underlying bonds have longer maturities. When yields fall, long-duration bonds generally experience larger price gains. If economic growth weakens and the Federal Reserve begins cutting rates

$Gold - main 2506(GCmain)$ fund net inflows have hit a record $80 BILLION year-to-date. More than double the previous high set in the 2020 during Covid.ImageRead more>>💰Gold ETF GLD Soars Amid Recession Fears, Bullish for Medium to Long Term💰Unlocking Silver's Shine: Undervalued and On the Rise🎉Copper Industry Lead Gains in March| TOP 5 Stocks See Higher TPs Some Gold stocks ETFs list from 💰Gold Outperforms Tech in 2025: $3,000 Reached, $3,200 in Sight

China selling is already baked into expectations. 

Short if you are Hodler. 

🤔 should think about the short/long carefully this time being!

Chances to bullish market 

$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ U.S. Braces for a Deeper Bond Sell-Off Washington is bracing for impact. If there was a single factor that forced Trump to pause tariffs, it was the bond market. Global retaliation, combined with investor fear, sent shockwaves through U.S. markets. The sell-off highlighted the dangerous path protectionism could lead us down. If the U.S. moves aggressively toward protectionism, foreign buyers have little incentive to hold U.S. debt. Domestic demand would fall, production costs would rise, and U.S. exports would become less competitive. That spells lower global revenues and, in turn, diminished confidence in U.S. Treasuries. This triggered a historic bond rout. Yields on the 10-year Treasury—the benchmark for

gghj

Replying to @nomadic_m:🙏🏼 for the tag nm. Interesting to read! So once again, New Zealand is excluded from a feature on what’s marketed as a global platform? Are Aussie members also left out? Mig and Ah_Meng, do either of you have access to this feature? @Mig @Ah_Meng Cheers ic for filling us in on the details @icycrystal //@nomadic_m:no such thing in NZ! very interesting betting mechanism. Wow I learnt something new again today @Barcode //

As above China would not want to devalue RMB

If China short. It still need to convert to RMB. Thus weakening its own currency. Would China do that?

No won't go short. Will keep long term

October 2023: US 10-yr bond yields 5% , "Strong economy, no recession." Oct 2023: Positive Fiscal Impulse April 2025: US 10-yr bond yield 4.37%, "bond market is crashing, recession imminent."Apr 2025: Negative Fiscal Impulse$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ You cannot make this up. via Bloomberg.ImageSmoothed #recession probabilities are in the basement, as low as they can go. There is only a recession in sentiment currently, not the real hard data, despite Larry "fake the funk" Fink's suggestion. A recession will demand current endogeny is sustained (tariffs).ImageAt this pace, President Donald J. Trump will produce the WORST $S&P 500(.SPX)$ return in 1st 75 days of a presidency... in history

On Monday, when the eyes of all market participants were attracted by the roller coaster market of US stocks triggered by the "tariff extension rumor", the really strange market actually happened in the US bond market...In the past 24 hours, the U.S. bond, which was regarded as the "king of safe haven" last week, suffered a sharp plunge at lightning speed, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield almost completely returned to Trump's level before the reciprocal tariff was announced last week!This historic sell-off caused almost all medium-and long-term U.S. bond yields to surge by more than 20 basis points in intraday trading on Monday, with the 30-year bond yield rising nearly 23 basis points in late trading, setting a record in 2020. The biggest one-day gain since the early COVID-19 pandemic.It c

Will you shift to US Treasuries?

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ Good day, Tiger investors. We seem to be stepping into a very different world—one marked by increasing uncertainty, economic upheaval, and shifting global dynamics. This past week has been especially turbulent, touching nearly every aspect of our interconnected systems—economics, finance, global trade. The shockwaves are real, and they demand thoughtful discussion. As investors, we are compelled to look beyond the noise. Yes, the headlines are intense. But we must keep our focus: evaluate risk vs. reward, analyze the long-term implications, and understand where opportunities lie amid chaos. That’s our job, and that’s how we prosper when others panic. A Changing Global Lan

Yes will invest in treasurys 

If I had cash, I'd park it in treasuries at least till the news cycle is a little bit more optimistic. There's more downside risk in the short term.

Shifting entirely to Treasuries might protect capital, but it sacrifices growth.Inflation risks could still erode real returns, even at higher yields.Alternatives like dividend aristocrats or gold offer safety with upside.Long-term investors shouldn’t time the market based on fear.Partial hedging makes sense, but going all-in is too defensive.Balance is better than retreat.

With global equities tanking, capital preservation is key.US Treasuries remain the world’s most liquid and reliable safe haven.Yields may be low, but stability matters more in a downturn.Flight-to-quality flows are already pushing bond prices higher.They also provide dry powder for re-entry into risk assets later.In panic mode, Treasuries are the rational refuge.

TLT vs IEF: Is It Time to Bet on Longer-Dated Bonds? As Treasury yields fall and equity markets face renewed pressure, US government bonds are attracting attention. But the rally in long-duration bonds raises an important question: is the market pricing in slower growth, or simply seeking safety? IEF, which tracks 7–10-year US Treasury bonds, gained 1.08%, while TLT, which tracks 20+ year Treasuries, climbed 1.87%. The 10-year Treasury yield fell more than 17 basis points to 4.972%, its lowest level since September 23. Why TLT Is Outperforming TLT is more sensitive to interest-rate changes because its underlying bonds have longer maturities. When yields fall, long-duration bonds generally experience larger price gains. If economic growth weakens and the Federal Reserve begins cutting rates