To The Moon

$Apple(AAPL)$ Apple recently faced two negative factors: first, Pelosi disclosed selling 31,600 Apple shares on Tuesday; second, TSMC's earnings report last week showed a quarter-over-quarter revenue decline due to seasonal factors in smartphone demand.The stock price has pulled back from its peak of 260 to 220, returning to levels before Trump's presidential campaign success.Considering Pelosi sold her shares on the 14th, after Tuesday's pullback, it might seem like a good opportunity to buy the dip or sell puts, but what's the actual situation?According to options trading details, put option positions show strong bearish signals, with downside targets at 210, 200, and 180:This time, sorting by open interest is more telling since Apple's downward

Two additional large orders for Chinese concept stocks:$KWEB 20250919 32.0 CALL$  September-expiring 32 call, exchange-traded, opened 46,000 lots, total transaction value approximately 11 million. $ASHR 20250321 26.0 CALL$  26 call expiring in March, opened 32,000 lots, with a total transaction value of approximately 3.48 million. The trading direction is relatively neutral. Although the direction label is bearish, the transaction price is 1.09, which is not far from the difference between the bid and ask prices, 0.02 and 0.03 respectively. It can be interpreted in either way.

$NVDA$After TSM's earnings report on Thursday showing long-term AI benefits, I expected to see large bullish options positions in NVIDIA. I was stunned to see 22,800 new June contracts with a $5 strike price! $NVDA 20250620 5.0 CALL$  With NVIDIA trading around $135, a $5 strike means deep in-the-money options, with prices approximately equal to stock price minus strike price. Each contract cost around $13,000, making the 22,800 contracts worth about $296 million.Deep in-the-money options have poor liquidity, and since this large order wasn't executed on-exchange, it took considerable time to fill.While the strike price may not provide much directional guidance, a $300 million purchase representing 2.28 million shares upon

$TSM$Like Tesla, TSM publishes monthly reports, so earnings focus on Q1 outlook and overall 2025 expectations.Overall revenue in 2025 is expected to grow 20% to $113 billion. Q1 2025 sales are projected at $25-25.8 billion. Capital expenditure for 2025 is expected to increase to $38-42 billion.Regarding revenue growth, institutions believe annual growth will exceed TSM's expectations, projecting 26-30%.Earnings data generally meets analyst expectations, with institutional price targets at 250, so continue bullish on NVIDIA!TSM is also good, but considering margin efficiency and implied volatility, NVIDIA offers better value.$ASHR$The large single-leg call position of 66,400 contracts traded on December 10-11 $ASHR 20250221 29.0 CA

$TSLA 20250124 335.0 PUT$ pocket money. 

$iShares China Large-Cap ETF(FXI)$ After the rebound in the past two days, institutions have been eagerly entering long positions.On Tuesday, $FXI 20250221 31.0 CALL$  saw new positions of 66,600 contracts, showing strong bullish sentiment.The 66,600 new contracts consist of two large orders: a single-leg call and a call spread:Buy $FXI 20250221 31.0 CALL$ , volume 20,000 contractsBuy $FXI 20250221 31.0 CALL$ , volume 30,000 contractsSell $FXI 20250221 34.0 CALL$ , volume 30,000 co

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Morgan Stanley's new Tesla report title blinded my dog's eyes: "Revisiting our Tesla Robotaxi and Mobility Model: Target to $430, Bull Case $800"What's the main driver for Tesla's stock price increase? It's physical AI!However, for such an important driving force, the article didn't provide specific quantitative data - those who know, know.The article ends with three price targets: base case $430, bull case $800, and bear case $200.After reading, I'm at a loss for words - can only say it's invincible, though I won't specify in what way.Also, institutions' sell call 405 from yesterday got squeezed. Well, let's wait for earnings. $KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF(KWEB)$ &

I deeply miss the washout from August 5th last year. It's so difficult now.$NVDA$Let me first review last Friday - Wall Street was particularly crafty and didn't follow the usual playbook.Last Friday January 10th, due to large opening positions in 125 put $NVDA 20250117 125.0 PUT$ , considering time decay's impact on option value, I thought there might be a short squeeze in the opposite direction - a sharp drop Friday followed by a gap down Monday, so I bought 125 puts waiting for intraday decline.However, shortly after market open there was a deep V-shaped recovery. The rebound caused call volume to disperse put volume - option trading didn't become one-sided. At 12PM I saw no opportunity for the second half, so I closed

In December, we summarized the bullish positioning in Chinese stocks, with two large orders particularly noteworthy: 98,000 contracts of $YINN 20260116 27.0 CALL$  traded in one day, and 210,000 contracts of $CHAU 20250516 15.0 CALL$ .These two large orders were positioned just before the December 9th surge, becoming highly visible in the market, with various media speculating about the source of the funds. After a month of volatility, on January 10th evening, Yinn plunged 8.69% and CHAU dropped 4.44%, finally forcing these large positions to close at a loss.According to Monday's updated open interest data,

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ This Friday through next week looks dangerous.After killing the shorts last Friday (January 3rd) and the longs on Tuesday (January 7th), the shorts are striking again, opening 47,000 contracts of January 17 expiry 125 puts $NVDA 20250117 125.0 PUT$ .This wasn't done through regular market trading; they likely placed direct orders due to good liquidity in next week's expiring options. From this order style, it seems the shorts aren't trying to hide their intentions, placing orders for whatever quantity was available, making it easy to spot in unusual activity screens.On the bulls' side, institutions are implementing a call spread for next week, selling 144 calls aga

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ As it turns out, we popped the champagne too early yesterday.Surprisingly, those who bought call options in bulk on Monday were wealthy retail investors, not the usual institutional players. And I, misreading the situation, became a small retail investor following the big ones to the slaughter.On Tuesday, within the first hour of trading, NVIDIA's stock price fell to its low, and this wealthy retail investor closed almost all February expiry call options bought on Monday opening, roughly estimated at 470,000 contracts:Closing at the lowest point, they lost about half of their principal, roughly calculated at around $100 million.Looking back through historical articles, we know this wealthy retail investor - they should be the "Procu

Despite broader market correction pressure, bulls won this pullback battle, and barring unexpected events, NVIDIA should head above 160 before earnings.Though it's only the first week of January, celebrating halfway might seem premature, but these champagne bottles were brought in truckloads by the bulls:Monday's options open interest details show surging call option positions at the top. Excluding spread strategy positions in 155 and 162.5 calls, February expiry calls with strikes 158-166 saw massive increases in open interest, ranging from 40,000 to 89,000 new contracts.Put strike prices rose accordingly, anchoring in the 130-140 range.Friday's short squeeze, combined with Jensen's vision-casting speech, produced remarkable price gains.Previously, I assessed NVIDIA's January movement as

Following up on "Seizing Opportunities: 2000% Earnings from Earnings Reports," where we discussed Friday's short squeeze during earnings week. Today, we'll further explore non-event-triggered Friday short squeezes.Last Friday, January 3rd, NVIDIA opened high and continued climbing, starting at 140 and reaching 143-143.9 between 10:30 AM and noon. Having observed intentional bullish positions in NVIDIA's weekly call options over the previous days, and considering the possibility of a short squeeze triggered by overnight margin checks, I bought calls expiring on the 10th $NVDA 20250110 150.0 CALL$  to further test the squeeze theory.While same-day options would have been more fitting for a "doomsday" trade with better-look

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Discovered something interesting - Trump's second inauguration as president is on January 16th, but the market is still pricing in risks according to the pattern from his first inauguration in January 2016.Top put positions for SPY are concentrated in the 570-580 range for the three weeks after January. The trend suggests a downward test of 570-580 between January 10-17, with a rebound in the last week of January. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ NVIDIA's risk pricing aligns with the broader market, but due to large institutional sell call positions, it's prone to short squeezes, wavering between dropping below 130 or not.For options expiring next week on the 10th, looking at new positions

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ The bearish expectations for the market are rather exaggerated. The volume of new positions opened is quite high. We can't use the excuse that all professional investors are on vacation. Although there is an electronics consumer show next week, it seems insufficient to support the overall market. It won't reach 557, but it's likely to touch 580. The short selling of call options is very intense, but the overall market is so weak that it lacks the strength to rise through forced buying. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Considering closing out the 140 sell put on Friday, the positive impact of the CES Consumer Electronics Show seems limited. This week, a considerable number of call options w

Just some casual thoughts - not much change as traders are on holiday break, and the market is mostly going with the flow.$NVDA$The CES electronics show expectations might provide some support, making NVIDIA's stock price relatively stronger, but limited. Call openings are better than put openings, with call targets concentrated at 140.During Friday's opening decline, someone opened 62,000 contracts of January 24 expiry 140 calls ($NVDA 20250124 140.0 CALL$ ), betting on a small rebound.Institutions are selling calls this week to cap prices below 138:Sell $NVDA 20250103 138.0 CALL$ Buy $NVDA

Some thoughts on future trends:The market correction target anchors to early November, the position before election results announcement.For three specific stocks: SPY target 565, Tesla below 380, NVIDIA below 125.These correspond to SPY large put position ($SPY 20250321 565.0 PUT$ ), Tesla call position exit ($TSLA 20250221 380.0 CALL$ ), and NVIDIA call strike price reduction roll-over ($NVDA 20250221 125.0 CALL$ ).Trump strongly dislikes market crashes and will severely pursue short sellers' responsibility, so short positions need legitimate reasons for significant drops.Short posit

It's terrifying upon reflection - the large bullish position of 32,000 Tesla call options has exited.$TSLA$Recently, many deep out-of-the-money put options have appeared on mainstream stock opening position lists, such as puts around 250. Compared to normal correction expectation layouts, these seem more like lottery tickets, which I dismiss with a laugh.Moreover, bullish institutions just rolled over their 380 call options on Monday ($TSLA 20250221 380.0 CALL$ ). The market shouldn't be so disrespectful as to crash before Trump takes office, right?However, this large position of 32,000 contracts was closed on Thursday:Unlike NVIDIA, which rolled from 140 to 125 while reducing position size and continued holding calls at

Bears are retreating step by step, with the expected crash delayed to January-February. So for now, continue with normal strategies - back to regular sell put + sell call daily tactics. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Comparing call and put options' expiry dates and strike prices, the setup is clear - expecting a correction in January-February.Top positions show puts far exceeding calls. Top call positions focus on this week, while puts are positioned around January-February next year. The previously mentioned March 565 put large position remains open $SPY 20250321 565.0 PUT$  $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ For NVIDIA, the CES electronics show starts Ja

I have to say, Wall Street is truly going all out - tight on time with heavy tasks, needing both a pullback and Christmas celebration, completing the correction in one day and the Christmas rally in three days. It's truly eye-opening.Trump's visit to the exchange wasn't for nothing. The leadership is watching, and even before officially taking office, the stock market has become a key focus. Tesla's valuation seems to need reconsideration. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Two signals: This week's 123 put positions were closed $NVDA 20241227 123.0 PUT$ , and recent bullish positions have been very active.The bullish positioning is so aggressive that there's a small chance of a squeeze to 150 this w

$Apple(AAPL)$ Apple recently faced two negative factors: first, Pelosi disclosed selling 31,600 Apple shares on Tuesday; second, TSMC's earnings report last week showed a quarter-over-quarter revenue decline due to seasonal factors in smartphone demand.The stock price has pulled back from its peak of 260 to 220, returning to levels before Trump's presidential campaign success.Considering Pelosi sold her shares on the 14th, after Tuesday's pullback, it might seem like a good opportunity to buy the dip or sell puts, but what's the actual situation?According to options trading details, put option positions show strong bearish signals, with downside targets at 210, 200, and 180:This time, sorting by open interest is more telling since Apple's downward

$NVDA$After TSM's earnings report on Thursday showing long-term AI benefits, I expected to see large bullish options positions in NVIDIA. I was stunned to see 22,800 new June contracts with a $5 strike price! $NVDA 20250620 5.0 CALL$  With NVIDIA trading around $135, a $5 strike means deep in-the-money options, with prices approximately equal to stock price minus strike price. Each contract cost around $13,000, making the 22,800 contracts worth about $296 million.Deep in-the-money options have poor liquidity, and since this large order wasn't executed on-exchange, it took considerable time to fill.While the strike price may not provide much directional guidance, a $300 million purchase representing 2.28 million shares upon

Two additional large orders for Chinese concept stocks:$KWEB 20250919 32.0 CALL$  September-expiring 32 call, exchange-traded, opened 46,000 lots, total transaction value approximately 11 million. $ASHR 20250321 26.0 CALL$  26 call expiring in March, opened 32,000 lots, with a total transaction value of approximately 3.48 million. The trading direction is relatively neutral. Although the direction label is bearish, the transaction price is 1.09, which is not far from the difference between the bid and ask prices, 0.02 and 0.03 respectively. It can be interpreted in either way.

$TSM$Like Tesla, TSM publishes monthly reports, so earnings focus on Q1 outlook and overall 2025 expectations.Overall revenue in 2025 is expected to grow 20% to $113 billion. Q1 2025 sales are projected at $25-25.8 billion. Capital expenditure for 2025 is expected to increase to $38-42 billion.Regarding revenue growth, institutions believe annual growth will exceed TSM's expectations, projecting 26-30%.Earnings data generally meets analyst expectations, with institutional price targets at 250, so continue bullish on NVIDIA!TSM is also good, but considering margin efficiency and implied volatility, NVIDIA offers better value.$ASHR$The large single-leg call position of 66,400 contracts traded on December 10-11 $ASHR 20250221 29.0 CA

$iShares China Large-Cap ETF(FXI)$ After the rebound in the past two days, institutions have been eagerly entering long positions.On Tuesday, $FXI 20250221 31.0 CALL$  saw new positions of 66,600 contracts, showing strong bullish sentiment.The 66,600 new contracts consist of two large orders: a single-leg call and a call spread:Buy $FXI 20250221 31.0 CALL$ , volume 20,000 contractsBuy $FXI 20250221 31.0 CALL$ , volume 30,000 contractsSell $FXI 20250221 34.0 CALL$ , volume 30,000 co

In December, we summarized the bullish positioning in Chinese stocks, with two large orders particularly noteworthy: 98,000 contracts of $YINN 20260116 27.0 CALL$  traded in one day, and 210,000 contracts of $CHAU 20250516 15.0 CALL$ .These two large orders were positioned just before the December 9th surge, becoming highly visible in the market, with various media speculating about the source of the funds. After a month of volatility, on January 10th evening, Yinn plunged 8.69% and CHAU dropped 4.44%, finally forcing these large positions to close at a loss.According to Monday's updated open interest data,

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Morgan Stanley's new Tesla report title blinded my dog's eyes: "Revisiting our Tesla Robotaxi and Mobility Model: Target to $430, Bull Case $800"What's the main driver for Tesla's stock price increase? It's physical AI!However, for such an important driving force, the article didn't provide specific quantitative data - those who know, know.The article ends with three price targets: base case $430, bull case $800, and bear case $200.After reading, I'm at a loss for words - can only say it's invincible, though I won't specify in what way.Also, institutions' sell call 405 from yesterday got squeezed. Well, let's wait for earnings. $KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF(KWEB)$ &

I deeply miss the washout from August 5th last year. It's so difficult now.$NVDA$Let me first review last Friday - Wall Street was particularly crafty and didn't follow the usual playbook.Last Friday January 10th, due to large opening positions in 125 put $NVDA 20250117 125.0 PUT$ , considering time decay's impact on option value, I thought there might be a short squeeze in the opposite direction - a sharp drop Friday followed by a gap down Monday, so I bought 125 puts waiting for intraday decline.However, shortly after market open there was a deep V-shaped recovery. The rebound caused call volume to disperse put volume - option trading didn't become one-sided. At 12PM I saw no opportunity for the second half, so I closed

Following up on "Seizing Opportunities: 2000% Earnings from Earnings Reports," where we discussed Friday's short squeeze during earnings week. Today, we'll further explore non-event-triggered Friday short squeezes.Last Friday, January 3rd, NVIDIA opened high and continued climbing, starting at 140 and reaching 143-143.9 between 10:30 AM and noon. Having observed intentional bullish positions in NVIDIA's weekly call options over the previous days, and considering the possibility of a short squeeze triggered by overnight margin checks, I bought calls expiring on the 10th $NVDA 20250110 150.0 CALL$  to further test the squeeze theory.While same-day options would have been more fitting for a "doomsday" trade with better-look

Bears are retreating step by step, with the expected crash delayed to January-February. So for now, continue with normal strategies - back to regular sell put + sell call daily tactics. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Comparing call and put options' expiry dates and strike prices, the setup is clear - expecting a correction in January-February.Top positions show puts far exceeding calls. Top call positions focus on this week, while puts are positioned around January-February next year. The previously mentioned March 565 put large position remains open $SPY 20250321 565.0 PUT$  $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ For NVIDIA, the CES electronics show starts Ja

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ As it turns out, we popped the champagne too early yesterday.Surprisingly, those who bought call options in bulk on Monday were wealthy retail investors, not the usual institutional players. And I, misreading the situation, became a small retail investor following the big ones to the slaughter.On Tuesday, within the first hour of trading, NVIDIA's stock price fell to its low, and this wealthy retail investor closed almost all February expiry call options bought on Monday opening, roughly estimated at 470,000 contracts:Closing at the lowest point, they lost about half of their principal, roughly calculated at around $100 million.Looking back through historical articles, we know this wealthy retail investor - they should be the "Procu

Despite broader market correction pressure, bulls won this pullback battle, and barring unexpected events, NVIDIA should head above 160 before earnings.Though it's only the first week of January, celebrating halfway might seem premature, but these champagne bottles were brought in truckloads by the bulls:Monday's options open interest details show surging call option positions at the top. Excluding spread strategy positions in 155 and 162.5 calls, February expiry calls with strikes 158-166 saw massive increases in open interest, ranging from 40,000 to 89,000 new contracts.Put strike prices rose accordingly, anchoring in the 130-140 range.Friday's short squeeze, combined with Jensen's vision-casting speech, produced remarkable price gains.Previously, I assessed NVIDIA's January movement as

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Discovered something interesting - Trump's second inauguration as president is on January 16th, but the market is still pricing in risks according to the pattern from his first inauguration in January 2016.Top put positions for SPY are concentrated in the 570-580 range for the three weeks after January. The trend suggests a downward test of 570-580 between January 10-17, with a rebound in the last week of January. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ NVIDIA's risk pricing aligns with the broader market, but due to large institutional sell call positions, it's prone to short squeezes, wavering between dropping below 130 or not.For options expiring next week on the 10th, looking at new positions

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ This Friday through next week looks dangerous.After killing the shorts last Friday (January 3rd) and the longs on Tuesday (January 7th), the shorts are striking again, opening 47,000 contracts of January 17 expiry 125 puts $NVDA 20250117 125.0 PUT$ .This wasn't done through regular market trading; they likely placed direct orders due to good liquidity in next week's expiring options. From this order style, it seems the shorts aren't trying to hide their intentions, placing orders for whatever quantity was available, making it easy to spot in unusual activity screens.On the bulls' side, institutions are implementing a call spread for next week, selling 144 calls aga

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ The bearish expectations for the market are rather exaggerated. The volume of new positions opened is quite high. We can't use the excuse that all professional investors are on vacation. Although there is an electronics consumer show next week, it seems insufficient to support the overall market. It won't reach 557, but it's likely to touch 580. The short selling of call options is very intense, but the overall market is so weak that it lacks the strength to rise through forced buying. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Considering closing out the 140 sell put on Friday, the positive impact of the CES Consumer Electronics Show seems limited. This week, a considerable number of call options w

Unexpectedly, after six months, we witnessed another earnings report squeeze on Friday with $AVGO$. With two cases now in hand, let's analyze and summarize the characteristics of this special trading pattern for future reference.Why should we master identifying this pattern? Because of the massive profits. The Friday closing末日call $AVGO 20241213 215.0 CALL$  saw a 3489% increase - this is true small-bet-big-return trading.The beauty of this pattern is that after Friday's surge, the stock continues to rise on Monday. If you missed Friday's rally, don't worry - you can enter at any time during trading hours, as the stock price will continue to rise next week.What is an Earnings Report Friday Squeeze?This is my informal nam

TL;DR: Next week's SPY trading range: 590-580.The title is a joke - I think it's unfair to blame Powell for the plunge.Wall Street is playing innocent by putting all blame on the old man. This plunge wasn't exactly unexpected; it had been brewing for a while. Institutions had been selling NVIDIA calls for two weeks at 140, waiting for a pullback since early December - they just needed an excuse for the plunge.The upcoming president's preferences are crystal clear - whoever triggers a stock market crash would be seen as opposing the future president.As usual, the FOMC meeting became the convenient trigger for the market selloff. Wall Street is using this opportunity for market correction, and after the adjustment, growth will resume its normal pattern.Regarding specific policies, the dot pl

Some thoughts on future trends:The market correction target anchors to early November, the position before election results announcement.For three specific stocks: SPY target 565, Tesla below 380, NVIDIA below 125.These correspond to SPY large put position ($SPY 20250321 565.0 PUT$ ), Tesla call position exit ($TSLA 20250221 380.0 CALL$ ), and NVIDIA call strike price reduction roll-over ($NVDA 20250221 125.0 CALL$ ).Trump strongly dislikes market crashes and will severely pursue short sellers' responsibility, so short positions need legitimate reasons for significant drops.Short posit

Just some casual thoughts - not much change as traders are on holiday break, and the market is mostly going with the flow.$NVDA$The CES electronics show expectations might provide some support, making NVIDIA's stock price relatively stronger, but limited. Call openings are better than put openings, with call targets concentrated at 140.During Friday's opening decline, someone opened 62,000 contracts of January 24 expiry 140 calls ($NVDA 20250124 140.0 CALL$ ), betting on a small rebound.Institutions are selling calls this week to cap prices below 138:Sell $NVDA 20250103 138.0 CALL$ Buy $NVDA

It's terrifying upon reflection - the large bullish position of 32,000 Tesla call options has exited.$TSLA$Recently, many deep out-of-the-money put options have appeared on mainstream stock opening position lists, such as puts around 250. Compared to normal correction expectation layouts, these seem more like lottery tickets, which I dismiss with a laugh.Moreover, bullish institutions just rolled over their 380 call options on Monday ($TSLA 20250221 380.0 CALL$ ). The market shouldn't be so disrespectful as to crash before Trump takes office, right?However, this large position of 32,000 contracts was closed on Thursday:Unlike NVIDIA, which rolled from 140 to 125 while reducing position size and continued holding calls at