To The Moon

These are the charts that I feel best capture the key macro/asset allocation issues relevant to investors right now or set to soon come onto the radar.1. Recession or Resurgence? This is really the big macro question for 2025; do the various weak spots spread and combine with (geo)politics + the long and variable lags of monetary tightening + fiscal reforms —to result in full blown recession?Or does an inventory (restocking) cycle + global monetary easing tailwinds + China stimulus — combine to trigger an economic reacceleration (+inflation resurgence)?This chart sets the scene on both respects (it represents both current weakness and potential strength), and will play a key part in ongoing real-time monitoring.2. The Macro Risk Sandwich: This chart also puts the “macro-risk-sandwich” of r

$U.S. Global Jets ETF(JETS)$ showing impressive relative strengthHere are the top 20 tickers in JETS, sorted by weight $United Continental(UAL)$ $American Airlines(AAL)$ $Southwest Airlines(LUV)$ $Delta Air Lines(DAL)$ $Frontier Group Holdings, Inc.(ULCC)$ $Allegiant Travel(ALGT)$ $JetBlue Airways(JBLU)$ $Sun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc.(SNCY)$ $Alaska Air(ALK)$

1.Earnings vs Price-Paid: the chart below shows how earnings did eventually come online for dot-com bubble stocks (well, at least for some of those whomst actually survived!)But valuations came way down…in other words, all that glorious growth was *in-the-price*Image2.You've probably seen the CAPE or PE10 ratios for global equities before, but have you seen the CAE/E10?This chart shows the 10-year moving average of earnings for global equities, and it is extremely telling...Image3.Every now and then a chart comes along that stops you in your tracks... This is one of those, and for good reason! $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Image

I've recently updated my quality growth dashboards. Here's a selection featuring:- ASML $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ Image- NVIDIA $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Image- Novo Nordisk $Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ Image- Hermes $Hermes International SA(HESAF)$ ImageI’ve recently updated my Global Compounders Database. You can gain access to a spreadsheet containing ~20 quality growth metrics through my subscriptions (link in bio).I’ve recently added- Salesforce $Salesforce.com(CRM)$ - WW Grainger $W.W. Grainger(GWW)$ - Interactive Brokers

They say it takes 10 years to master a craft.I'm 29 years into my investing journey and I'm no master. But I have learned this:1. Embrace uncertainty2. Accept diversification is good for you3. The less you look at your portfolio the betterWhat did I miss?The best investors are on a constant learning journey.Buffett started buying "cigar butt" stocks and evolved to a buy-and-hold strategy.Bill Gurley has made a fortune on internet companies and the internet didn't even exist when he started.The best trade is not to trade at all. Compounding takes time...and patience.Learn, implement, repeat.

Growing manufacturing base to 25GW by 2026, with 14GW in the US. Fully integrated supply chain independent of Chinese supply mitigates most tariff risks.Sell-off driven by fears of loss of IRA tax credits, however, FSLR remains profitable without the credits and its unlikely they will be repealed in their entirety.Largest US solar manufacturer and #10 in the world by market share.FSLR’s 17 TOPCon patents might yield a third-party sale or royalties, as the U.S. International Trade Commission looks into banning infringing imports and the Chinese government upheld FSLR’s ownership.FSLR’s CdTe modules have higher temperature tolerance and lower annual degradation rates compared to Chinese-dominated c-Si modules.Investment Thesis $First Solar(FSLR)$ is

One of the Asymmetric Universe stocks that I fundamentally disagree with most of the market’s commentary is $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ . Even today, a Wall Street analyst downgraded the stock to a sell with a $25 price target because of changing expectations for GLP-1s. 🤷 He expects GLP-1s to be only $135 million in revenue in 2025 from previous expectations of $400 million. Reminder, this is a business that didn’t exist 8 months ago!The company swings wildly day-to-day on GLP-1 news but GLP-1s account for very little of the company’s revenue or subscriptions. A long-term view of the company — which is what I do on Asymmetric Investing — shows a very different story than the GLP-1 focus and I think presents an opportunity for investo

Predicting Bitcoin’s price movement is inherently uncertain due to its highly volatile nature. However, here are some key factors to consider when evaluating whether Bitcoin will pull back to $90,000 (or higher) or if it has hit a temporary bottom: Factors Suggesting a Pullback to $90,000 or Higher 1. Institutional Adoption: • Increased participation from institutions, ETFs, and major financial companies could drive demand. • Bitcoin’s use as a hedge against inflation and macroeconomic instability supports long-term growth. 2. Supply Dynamics: • The 2024 Bitcoin halving will reduce new supply, historically correlating with price surges. • Long-term holders (whales) accumulating could signal upward momentum. 3. Macro Trends: • As global economies stabilize, risk-on assets like Bitcoin may s

$META 20250110 550.0 PUT$ Closing this put despite it will expire worthless in couple of hours time when market closes just to free up margin so can make other trades... $META 20250110 550.0 PUT$ 

$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ 🐯🐅‼️ Attention Tiger Traders! Join me in this exciting event as we explore the fascinating dynamics of the bond and equity markets, with a focus on strategic options trading for $TLT$. This is your chance to engage with insightful strategies and earn Tiger Coins while discussing the market’s latest trends. Don’t miss out on this opportunity to learn, share, and win! Translation of the Event to English: Recently, the global bond market has seen significant sell-offs, with the yield on the US 10-year Treasury climbing to approximately 4.7%, the highest since April 2023. Since mid-September, the yield has risen by more than 100 basis points, exhibiting a near-continuous upward trend. This movement mirrors the

$Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$ Buying Back Upstart (UPST) at $56 After Selling at $88.95 – A Strategic Reentry? After locking in significant gains at $88.95, you’ve now reentered Upstart (UPST) at $56, a nearly 37% discount from your previous exit. The question now is: Was this a good buyback, and what’s next for the stock? Oversold or Justified Decline? UPST has faced a prolonged downtrend, dropping from $88.95 to $56, and is now down 5.18% today. Based on the chart, the price has touched the lower Bollinger Band ($52.38), suggesting a potential oversold condition. The BBIBOLL lower limit is $44.53, meaning there’s still some downside risk, but we could see a rebound if buying pressure increases. Fundamentally, UPST remains a highly volatile

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Buying Back After an Oversold Drop: A Smart Trading Move? The stock market is a battlefield of emotions, and when a stock like NVIDIA (NVDA) experiences a sharp decline after reaching a high of $153, it’s natural to wonder if it’s an overreaction. With today’s dip to $135.54, down 3.26%, it raises the question: Is this an oversold opportunity? The Concept of an Oversold Market A stock is considered oversold when it experiences a sharp decline in price, often accompanied by high selling volume. This typically occurs when market sentiment turns overly bearish, driven by factors like profit-taking, macroeconomic news, or technical breakdowns. However, an oversold condition often signals a potential rebound if the selling pressure

1. Recent Market Overview Bitcoin( $CME Bitcoin - main 2501(BTCmain)$ ) has declined for three consecutive days, briefly dropping to $92,000 on Thursday, signaling heightened market volatility. Catalyst for Decline: Reports suggest a court ruling granted the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) approval to sell 69,370 BTC seized from a dark web marketplace. Impact: This massive sell-off potential is sparking fears of oversupply and further downward pressure on Bitcoin prices. 2. Bitcoin Technical Analysis Key Levels to Watch: Support: $90,000 – A psychological and technical support zone. Resistance: $95,500 – Short-term resistance Bitcoin must break to resume upward momentum. Scenario Analysis: 3. Market Sentiment Bearish Factors: DOJ Bitcoin Sal