Common mistakes in investment:1. Emotional Investing: Making decisions based on fear or greed instead of rational analysis.2. Lack of Research: Not thoroughly researching investments before committing funds.3. Ignoring Fees: Not considering the impact of management fees and transaction costs on returns.4. Chasing Past Performance: Investing in assets solely because they performed well in the past.5. Overreacting to Market News: Making sudden changes in investment strategy due to market volatility or news.6. Not Having a Plan: Investing without a clear strategy or financial goals.7. Holding Losing Investments: Refusing to sell underperforming assets in hopes they will recover.8. Underestimating Risk: Not understanding the level of risk associated with certain investments.Have you ever found
1.*Realized* Equity Risk Premium?The rolling 10-year ERP has been really good, and that's kind of bad...This thing clearly moves in cycles, it's late and extended in the cycle, other metrics show a very low forward looking ERP, and this chart just plain looks ripe for mean reversion.The next 10-years will not be the same. $.SPX(.SPX)$$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Image2.Gold Forecast 2025Of the analysts surveyed by Reuters, about 50% say gold goes lower (or unch at best) this year, but there's also a decent chunk of bulls and 10% see it heading above $3000/oz $Gold - main 2502(GCmain)$ Image3.Some call it "King Dollar"But maybe it should be *king-maker* d
I thought it would be worth resurfacing this chart from the series of educational articles I wrote earlier last year on valuations for multi-asset investors — and how to use valuation signals to navigate the market cycle.The basic concept is that valuation signals when they reach an extreme have powerful contrarian information; they tell us about forward-looking risk and opportunity set using current information. Through-the-range however they present momentum information.Applying this to the above chart we can understand the journey from extreme cheap in 2009 —at the time a very contrarian outlook of high upside probability (high opportunity), all the way through to now (I would say an equally contrarian outlook); high downside probability (high risk).And there’s a key point: these are no
Market Rally to Cool inflation & Banks' earnings ?
US Producer inflation (reported by the Labor Department) rose less than expected in December 2024, as higher costs for goods were partially offset by stable services prices. According to the report, a surge in energy costs was the culprit behind the monthly increase. Wholesale energy prices rose +3.5% for the month (fueled by a 9.7% jump in gas prices) driving goods prices and overall index higher. The latest data, shows that US inflation remained on a see-saw trend with progress stalled in recent months. The moderation reported in producer prices on Tue, 14 Jan 2025, did not change overall consensus, that the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates before H2 2025, based on: Resilient labour market (as confirmed by Fri, 10 Jan 2025 - US non-farm payroll report on ). High threat of potentiall
$NVDA 20250124 130.0 PUT$ NVDA: collect 1.5% premium for this cash secured put with strike at $130. Options will expire next Fri on 24th Jan. Stock had came from from the $150 range to low $130. Decided that it can be a good range to start nibbling while waiting for more good news to come. $130 also seems good support region with pivot point and moving averages near there.
$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$$Nu Holdings Ltd.(NU)$$Block(SQ)$$Enphase Energy(ENPH)$ Today, I’ve decided to discussing three growth stocks currently trading near their lows, providing a quick overview, and sharing my thoughts. Before diving in, I always like to remind viewers that with growth stocks, the focus is less on free cash flow yield or trailing earnings and more on future potential. Growth investing often involves speculation, with many "what-ifs." To manage risk, I recommend proper position sizing—don’t allocate too much capital to these stocks. If you’re right, even a small position can generate significant re
I visit Malaysia on weekends but not every weekend. I go there once every few months for good and cheap food, services such as massage, pedicure, manicure, hair cut and colour. Services are generally about half price of Singapore which makes it worthwhile to travel over. Clothes are also cheaper at Malaysia than Singapore. Clothes in value in Malaysia is the same as Singapore but in RM! Due to the exchange rate, price is about a third of Singapore. There is also outlet at Malaysia which makes buying branded goods easy. I do know many Singaporeans go over for grocery shopping and to pump petrol. I don't do both as I find it risky to drive in and grocery shopping is too heavy to try to carry it over the causeway using public transport[Facepalm]
Tesla Shares Soar to 11-Year High, Yet Some Analysts Bearish
On Thursday, $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ 's stock soared nearly 22%, marking its best single-day performance since 2013. Elon Musk’s net worth jumped by $33.5 billion in a single day, further solidifying his lead on Bloomberg's billionaire index.Q3 Results: Earnings Beat, Revenue MissOn Wednesday, Tesla reported revenue of $25.18 billion, falling slightly short of analysts' $25.37 billion expectations, but up 8% year-over-year. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) hit $0.72, beating the expected $0.58 by a wide margin.Boosting profits this quarter was $739 million in revenue from regulatory credits, a major factor in Tesla's margin lift. JPMorgan analysts warned, however, that this credit-based boost might be “unsustainable.” Automakers are required to hold
Tesla Soars 22%, Best Single-Day Performance in 11 Years!
图片On Thursday, $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ ’s stock skyrocketed by 22%, marking its best single-day performance since 2013, following a better-than-expected earnings report.Strong Earnings ReportTesla reported Q3 revenue of $25.18 billion, slightly below analysts’ expectations of $25.37 billion but still an 8% increase from the previous year. The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.72, surpassing the average forecast of $0.58.JPMorgan analysts noted, “Given that investors have gotten used to Tesla's earnings missing expectations, we expect this surprise to trigger a strong positive response on Thursday.”Tesla’s profit margin was bolstered by $739 million in environmental regulatory credits. Analysts at JPMorgan pointed out that this is a “pot
The 20-Year Treasury Crossed 5%—Should You Wait for 6%?
$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ The 20-Year Treasury Crossed 5%—Should You Wait for 6%? Welcome back, I hope you're healthy and well. Tonight update, we’re diving into a key milestone in the bond market: the 20-year Treasury bond crossed the 5% threshold this past Wednesday morning "Should we buy at 5% or wait for treasuries to hit 6%?" With that in mind, here’s what we’ll cover in today’s update: Which Treasuries Crossed 5% This Week and Why We'll also address whether waiting for 6% makes sense and how we handled cash parked in T-bills and money market funds. Weekly Movements in Treasury Yields A breakdown of which Treasuries rose and which fell over the past week. Next Week's Treasury Auctions and Current Yield Opportunities An overview
Are Small Caps the Place to be for the Next Decade ?
Tom Lee says small-cap stocks can outperform by 100% over the next couple of years on Trump policies. Is this the time to position off the 200-day SMA before he takes office? $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ ImageWhile small caps have historically beaten large caps, the Russell 2000 has underperformed the $.SPX(.SPX)$ since 2014. Indeed, the S&P500 to Russell 2000 ratio has reached 3 standard deviations to the downside, sign of an extreme cheapness of small caps relative to large ones. ImageAfter a decade of mega caps' overperformance, during which indexing has become meanstream (pushed by personal finance influencers), adopting another stance could seem counterproductive to many. But, looking at longer
Daily Charts - $AMD falling off a cliff as it drops to a 14-month low
1. $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ Advanced Micro Devices falling off a cliff as it drops to a 14-month lowImage2. $Walgreens Boots Alliance(WBA)$ Walgreens soars to highest price since JulyImage3. $.SPX(.SPX)$ Only 30% of S&P 500 stocks are trading above their 100 Day Moving Average, the fewest in more than 14 monthsImageFewer than half of S&P 500 stocks are trading above their 200D moving average 🚨 This is the first time this has happened since November 2023Image4.Major U.S. Banks with the Most Commercial Real Estate ExposureImage5.Money Market Funds just saw a weekly inflow of $143 billion, the largest since April 2020 🚨Image
Daily Charts - 5 Largest Stocks in the S&P 500 now account for 29% of the $SPX
1.5 Largest Stocks in the S&P 500 now account for 29% of the $.SPX(.SPX)$ , the highest concentration since the Nifty Fifty during the 1960s 🚨 This was followed by one of the worst stock performances in history.ImageOnly 30% of S&P 500 stocks are trading above their 100 Day Moving Average, the fewest in more than 14 monthsImage2. $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ Founder Mark Zuckerberg criticized $Apple(AAPL)$ for not inventing anything great in a while and for taking 30% of sales from all apps sold in its storeImage
NVIDIA: Is There an Iceberg in the Future for this Unsinkable Titanic?
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ is highly popular with positive sentiment, but caution is advised due to potential rapid sell-offs by institutions using algorithms.Nvidia's strong technical indicators include 100% buy signals, significant price gains, and a Trend Seeker buy signal, despite recent minor losses.Fundamental factors show impressive revenue and earnings growth expectations, but failure to meet these could result in significant stock drops.Analysts are generally bullish with high price targets, but the stock remains volatile and speculative; diversification and stop-loss strategies are recommended.Technical Indicators:100% technical buy signals114.25+ Weighted Alpha150.06% gain in the last yearTrend Seeker buy signal1.64 - 60 month BetaAbove its 20, 50
1. $Apple(AAPL)$$Apple(AAPL)$ enters technical correction after falling more than 10% since hitting an all-time high on December 26 📉Image2. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Tesla could double to $800 per share according to Morgan Stanley's new Bull Case 📈Image3. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Nvidia Insider Trading Alert 🚨Jay Puri, Nvidia's VP of Global Operations, sold $5.5 million worth of NVDA sharesImage4.30-Year Mortgage Rate jumps to 7.64%, the highest level since May Image5.Hedge Funds dumped Energy Stocks last week big time 🚨Image6.Natural Gas soared to its highest price since December 2022 📈🚨Image
Weekly Insights: Latest AI chip ban announced! U.S. Stock Pullback Alarm Sounded as U.S. Economy Continues to Strengthen?
Performance of Global Equity Indices(in US Dollar) Source: Bloomberg, Tiger Brokers Key Market Themes Is the Biden Administration's Plan for Stricter AI Chip Export Restrictions Set to Have a Profound Impact on the Tech Industry? Last week, Bloomberg, citing sources familiar with the matter, reported that the Biden administration plans to introduce further AI chip export restrictions before leaving office on January 20. Rumors suggest that the new regulations will categorize countries and regions into three tiers as follows: Tier 1: Includes major U.S. allies such as Germany, Japan, and the Netherlands. These countries will face minimal restrictions and can nearly freely access AI chips exported by the U.S. Tier 2: Covers most countries and regions worldwide, which will be subject to a tot
EU Considers Gradual Ban on Russian LNG and Aluminum$Cheniere Energy Inc(LNG)$Well-positioned as an LNG exporter, benefiting from a pro-energy administration and global geopolitical risks disrupting supply.In addition, Stage 3 at the Corpus Christi facility nearing completion in 2025 and with a stronger gas market.Price hiked 6% last night, not a preferred entry timing for long term investors but likely bullish 2025.