To The Moon

1. $Microsoft(MSFT)$ Something I'm thinking about a lot. What happens to the economics of the tech industry when capex goes exponential with unknown payoff?Is there balance sheet risk (mis-understanding depreciation of GPUs)?Are these now utilities?Image2. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Tesla's energy business happened to reach an inflection point in Q3 2022.What else happened in Q3 2022? The IRA was passed!If Trump rolls back the IRA (in particular PTC for batteries) the energy business likely goes to zero margin because...batteries are a commodity.3. $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ Look at how the revenue mix has shifted over the past 5 years.Coinbase isn't the company it

1.Where do stockmarket returns come from? $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Dividends: consistent (but falling)Earnings: but with variation through the economic cycleValuation changes: with major variation through the market/financial cycleImage2.Non-rec Bulls 🤔 This chart shows the history of Bull markets coming out of Recession (most often large, triple digit gains) vs those *not* preceded by recession circled in blue (still significant but shorter, smaller by comparison). One implication is that the current one looks about fully-cooked.Image3.Stockmarket investors Income Growth over timeImage4.Credit & Equity are in agreement 🤝 These competing claims on corporate assets can agree on one

This week I covered the following topics/ideas:1. GSV vs ULG: Bullish global/small/value vs US/large/growth on increasingly extreme cheap relative value (and supportive emerging macro scenario), awaiting turn in technicals to raise conviction.2. China Equities: Remain bullish given improving macro and cheap absolute +relative valuations, bearish on the bonds though (and hence bullish Chinese stock/bond ratio).3. EM Equities: Remain bullish EM equities as EM ex-China pulls their weight and EM ex-Asia remains significantly cheap, meanwhile sentiment remains skeptical and allocations well below average.4. EM Fixed Income: Remain bullish given investor skepticism, turn in technicals, cheap valuations, and favorable policy path (likewise for EMFX), but wary of inflation resurgence risk.5. Front

1. $Netflix(NFLX)$ NFLX - Netflix - megacap company performance since long breakout: 12.56%.2. $TAL Education Group(TAL)$ TAL - TAL Education Group - midcap company performance since long breakout: 16.16%.3. $Mission Produce, Inc.(AVO)$ AVO - Mission Produce - smalecap company performance since short breakout: -16.48%.4. $Patrick(PATK)$ PATK - Patrick Industries - midcap company performance since long breakout: 14.84%.5. $iShares Global Tech ETF(IXN)$ IXN - ISHARES GLOBAL TECH ETF - midcap company performance since long breakout: 3.33%.

1.BOJ continues policy normalization push, hikes +25bps to 0.50% -- last time they hiked to that level was early-2007Capping off one crazy experiment with another 👺Image2.I realized something the other day...There's a funny duality in markets at the moment -- it seems many people can agree that European stocks are extremely cheap vs US, and many people also agree on the weaknesses and challenges facing Europe vs the upsides and strengths enjoyed by US stocks.Cheap for a reason = It's in the price.Image3.Even after factoring in dividends, "lost decades" are something that seems to come along about at least once per generationIf only there were a way to manage this risk and prepare.......... $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S

1.Tale of two Stockmarkets right there!Two questions:-can tech earnings keep surging?-when will non-tech shake-off stagnation?Image2."stocks go up in the long-run"Yep, but they also go through some pretty major cycles.This is a *good* thing for investors who are prepared to manage risk and capture opportunities. $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Image3.Initial breakout in Gold $Gold - main 2502(GCmain)$ , surge in Silver $Silver - main 2503(SImain)$ shorts (squeeze coming?), Deep Value in Gold Miners, and a look at who Holds the most Gold...