To The Moon

Last week, a trader messaged me about his "profitable" strategy. He made $5,000 in one week, lost $3,000 the next, made $2,000 after that, then lost everything trying to recover his losses. His strategy wasn't the problem, his inconsistency was killing his results. I know exactly how this feels. Five years ago, I was the same trader. One month I'd make 20% returns, feeling like I'd finally cracked the code. The next month, I'd lose 30%, wondering what went wrong. This cycle continued until I lost over $10,000 and nearly quit trading altogether. If you're finding yourself on this emotional rollercoaster, stick with me. I share weekly insights about transforming your trading psychology in my newsletter. But first, let me show you what's really happening in your trading. The Hidden Pattern Mo

🤔💭🧐 The AI landscape is undergoing a rapid and unprecedented evolution, characterised by a real-time redefinition of foundational paradigms. DeepSeek’s achievement serves as a compelling testament to the catalytic role of ingenuity under constraint, underscoring the diminishing primacy of brute resource expenditure in favour of strategic optimisation. For incumbent industry leaders, the imperative has shifted from a binary question of adaptation to the critical urgency of its velocity. As the accessibility of advanced AI proliferates, the potential benefits for end-users expand dramatically. However, the trajectory of this transformation hinges on whether these enterprises recalibrate to align with this emergent reality or persist in adhering to paradigms rendered obsolete by the inexorabl

$Texas Instruments(TXN)$ goes ex-dividend JAN31, and current yield is 2.9%. ImageTXN FY24 Cash FlowOperating Cash flow -2%Capex -5%Free Cash Flow +11%Second year in a row not covering dividendsImageFCF/share +11% YoY for FY24Driven by Capex reductionImageTXN presentation from last year - FCF/share and Capex impactCapex "scalability" as of 2026 - spent Revenue dependentImageTXN 4Q at high end of guidance4Q YoYRevenue -2% (-3% QoQ)Net income -12%Dil. EPS -13%FY24OCF -2%FCF +11% (lower Capex)1Q’25 guidanceRevenue $3.91B at mid point -2% QoQ ; -+7% YoY

It was a slow and steady week of gains for the stock market this week. Bank earnings began and results were mostly ahead of expectations. This week, we begin earnings season in earnest with companies like $SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ $General Motors(GM)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ The Ticking Time Bomb on Big Tech’s Balance SheetThis week, I explored the world of data center investment and depreciation. It’s not an exciting world, but it may be a place to find risk where most investors are seeing opportunity.As I’ve highlighted before, the economics of AI aren’t the same as technology companies are used to. Norma

1. $Rigetti Computing(RGTI)$ Rigetti has $11.9 million in revenue and a $3.7 billion market cap.Even if quantum is the future, this is a bad stock to bet on because the fundamentals are so bad.Image2. $SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ If SoFi is becoming more of a platform company, facilitating loans through its "lending platform" like we saw with the $2 billion Fortress deal, that growth will show up here, not in lending revenue.Image3. $MGM Resorts International(MGM)$ MGM stock is down 23% in the past year.If management just keeps the buyback level flat, it could reduce shares outstanding at a 20%/yr pace right now.Image

1.US Corporate Profit Margins-tech has found a new higher plateau-non-tech has trended up over timeThank you 🙏 -lower interest rates-lower tax rates-higher productivity-higher share of global revsImage2.One reason for US equities outperforming Global equities for much of the past 10-15 years has been the consistently higher profitabilityUS RoE out-punches the rest.Image3.The Great Deleveraging Thanks to scars of the financial crisis spurring folk to be more prudent with debt and of course — more-to-the-point: the dream run in stocks and property on the asset side...US household leverage (as measured by debt as a % of assets) has dropped to multi-decade lows. Who da thunk it.Image

DeepSeek could certainly accelerate the amount of tinkering / experimenting / prototyping folks do with AI. With lower cost barriers, why not try out more things?But once enterprises find use cases they want to scale up into production, I think there will be real hesitations around trust. How do you handle the inherent bias in the training data? Or how those bias will show up in a reasoning agent? Or worse? I think the real question is what are the implications if a US based company takes a similar approach that DeepSeek didAI is becoming more powerful at the same time it's becoming more accessible. Amazing!Cheaper AI is better for all. It will lead to more education, more experimentation and thus more production use. Excited for this year!

What influences share prices? Here’s how I see it.ImageFour of the most important ratios in investing:1. FCF / Invested capital2. FCF / Historic FCF3. FCF / Revenue4. FCF / Market capitalisationIf you had to add one, what would it be?Here's a mental model for thinking about a company's growth:• Is the growth rate high?• Is the growth predictable?High + Predictable = InvestableAnything else = Perhaps best to avoidWhere do you invest?ImageHigh growth companies normally have high multiples.I created this table to show the relationship between growth and multiples👇In short, a PE ratio of 50 requires a 20% earnings growth over 5 years to turn that multiple from 50 -> 20.FYI, I use FCF yield - not P/E.Image

4 of the Mag 7 stocks are set to report earnings next week. This is the most friendly positioning backdrop we have seen into Mag 7 prints in a long time.The group long/short ratio is currently in the 5th percentile vs. the past year. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Image

I decided to build a simple option screener in python using free api's looking for cheap option close to in the money with decent iv and delta. Remember I am starting from $300 USD so need cheap ones while managing risk 🫥 Now with this trade I didn't do any research which I might come to regret 😆however I just put an order in and it triggered.🙈 $SENS 20250321 1.0 CALL$ this is the order and the stock is $Senseonics(SENS)$   I will share some more about the other options on the screener however just need to build a list of ticker options for python to run through 😩

How Many Americans Own Stock? About 162 Million -- but the Wealthiest 1% Own More Than Half (Source: Motley Fool article dated 27 Dec 2024) About 162 million Americans, or 62% of U.S. adults, own stock. The top 1% holds 50% of stocks, worth $23 trillion. The bottom 50% of U.S. adults hold only 1% of stocks, worth $480 billion. Dollar Cost Averaging With SPY ETF The following is extracted from an Investopedia article that illustrates the benefit of DCA over trying to time the market. Total Invested via DCA: $81,000 Value of Shares: $128,130 Below are three charts: Price of SPY shares: The first depicts the price per share for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) as it shifts prices from 2018 to 2024. Shares bought each month: Putting away $1,000 monthly, regardless of the price, the second chart

The AI revolution is fueled by a global scramble for GPUs, with $NVIDIA(NVDA)$  reigning supreme.  Tech giants are stockpiling NVIDIA's chips to power their AI ambitions, driving up prices and creating shortages.  But the competition is expanding beyond big tech. Nations are recognizing AI's strategic importance and investing heavily in securing access to these crucial resources. This demand will only intensify as AI permeates everyday life, from smartphones to cars. This raises critical questions about equitable access, potential biases, and responsible use. The GPU gold rush is not just about hardware; it's about the future. NVIDIA holds significant sway in this landscape, and the choices made today, by governments, corp