To The Moon

News and my thoughts from the past week (18Aug25) Bank of America’s survey says that US stocks are overvalued. Do you agree? Image Image Large Cap Stocks are destroying Small Caps by the largest margin in history Everything that ends up working in finance stems from patience and self-control. Everything that doesn’t work stems from instant gratification and FOMO. - Morgan Housel Image The monthly supply of new homes in the US surged to 9.8 months in June, the third-highest since 2008. This indicator measures how many months it would take to sell current builder inventory at the current sales pace. By comparison, the long-term median is 5.8 months. Since the 1960s, 5 of the 6 times builder supply reached this level, a recession followed. The only exception was 2022, when the economy narrowl

My Investing Muse (18Aug25) Layoffs & Closure news U.S. layoffs have surged to their highest level since the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic. Image US has hit its highest layoffs since COVID. The above are some news items about layoffs and closures. As tariff negotiations drag on, the collateral to businesses (especially smaller ones) can compound. US debts Here is some news about the US debts: Image Image Image The US Treasury posted a $291 billion budget deficit in July, the 2nd-largest deficit for any July on record. The gap marks a sharp reversal from June’s $27 billion budget surplus. This comes as government spending surged +9.7% YoY to $630 billion, the 2nd-highest since January. Meanwhile, revenue rose just +2.5% YoY to $338 billion, including $29.6 billion in tariff reve

When you’re sitting on a market cap north of $4.4 trillion and your stock has more than doubled in the past year, the champagne problem becomes obvious: your share price looks like it belongs on the menu of a fine dining restaurant rather than a trading app. Nvidia, the chipmaker turned AI overlord, is once again flirting with a stock split, and the question on my mind is whether management will feel compelled to make the shares appear more bite-sized to retail investors without diluting the company’s gravity-defying fundamentals. Unstoppable ascent: Nvidia’s surge reshapes investor psychology A Price Tag That Feels Like a Gatekeeper At $180 a share, $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ doesn’t yet carry the sticker shock of a four-digit stock like Berkshire Hathaway,

$PayPal(PYPL)$ PayPal Holdings (NASDAQ: PYPL) has experienced one of the most dramatic sentiment shifts of any large-cap fintech in recent memory. Once considered a symbol of digital payment disruption, PayPal saw its stock soar to record highs in 2021, only to collapse more than 70% over the following years. Today, shares trade at valuation multiples that suggest PayPal is no longer a growth darling, but instead a potential value opportunity. The key question for investors is whether PayPal’s current discounted price represents a buying opportunity for patient, long-term holders—or if it is simply a value trap in an increasingly competitive payments landscape. Performance Overview and Market Feedback To understand the present investment case, it’

$General Mills(GIS)$ General Mills’ shares have taken investors on a rocky ride this year. Once a bedrock of defensive, dividend-oriented portfolios, the maker of Cheerios, Nature Valley bars and a host of pantry staples is now wrestling with falling volumes, downgraded guidance and renewed questions about whether structural changes in consumer behavior and a volatile macro backdrop will permanently dent its growth profile. This article walks through the performance shock, what management says, the company’s underlying cash-flow and balance-sheet dynamics, why tariffs and weak demand matter (and where they don’t), how the market is positioned, and—finally—an explicit verdict with an entry-price zone for long-term investors. A quick primer: what hap