To The Moon

A Turnaround Measured in Atoms, Not Quarters I have always found that the market struggles to price transitions that are both technical and geopolitical, and Intel sits squarely in that blind spot. This is not merely a semiconductor story; it is an industrial policy experiment awkwardly squeezed into quarterly earnings calls. At its core, the 18A process node is not just another upgrade—it is the dividing line between credibility and irrelevance. If it works, $Intel(INTC)$ does not simply improve margins; it becomes a cornerstone of Western technological sovereignty. If it does not, we are left with a sobering reality: sovereignty is expensive, and markets are not obliged to subsidise it indefinitely. Sovereignty is engineered; profitability remai

Invesco QQQ Trust, Broadcom Inc., and Alphabet Inc. are all flashing the same message: stretched conditions + indecision = higher odds of a pullback. This isn’t bearish — it’s positioning. 1. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ Indecisive candles and the Stochastic in overbought zone have preceded pullbacks. As noted in yesterday’s Weekly Compass, I remain skeptical of another consecutive rally week; a gap-fill attempt is likely. The pullback trigger came up this morning - Price action is PRIMAL. 2. $Broadcom(AVGO)$ When Broadcom breaches the upper Bollinger Band, a retracement toward the 20DMA follows, usually no exceptions. This stock is permanently analyzed in the Weekly Compass, including charts, daily price levels and

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ just ripped higher over the past two weeks. That move was fueled by optimism around a US and Iran ceasefire and the possibility of broader de-escalation. Once again, the market reminded us how fast it can recover when sentiment shifts. But I'm not trusting this move blindly. There are a few technical concerns that need to be respected before anyone gets comfortable chasing this bounce. The Monthly BX Is Still Dark Red Even after this rally, the Monthly BX has not flipped. It's still dark red. That matters more than most people realize. When macro buying pressure isn't there, rallies can turn into traps. In real bull cycles, dips lead to breakouts. In weaker conditions, bounces lead to rejection. That's the structural differ

As someone who’s spent countless hours dissecting markets, crunching performance data, and watching investor money flow into shiny new products, I’ve developed a healthy skepticism toward actively managed ETFs. Don’t get me wrong — the idea sounds fantastic. Hand your money to a star manager like Cathie Wood at ARK Invest, let them chase “disruptive innovation” with bold bets on Tesla, CRISPR, and the next big thing, and outperform the boring old S&P 500. What could go wrong? Plenty, it turns out. The case against active ETFs boils down to three hard realities I see play out over and over: sky-high fees that quietly erode your wealth, returns that rarely justify the hype (and often lag simple index funds), and marketing that sells excitement instead of results. And the kicker? Replicat

No one can predict the future with certainty over a full decade, but Berkshire’s business model is built for durability and compounding, which supports reasonable projections. I’ll focus strictly on earnings, strategy, and share price/market cap based on the latest 2025 full-year results, Greg Abel’s first shareholder letter as CEO, historical trends, and the realities of Berkshire’s current scale. Current Snapshot (as of early 2026)Operating earnings (Berkshire’s preferred metric): $44.5 billion in 2025, down from $47.4 billion in 2024 but still above the five-year average of about $37.5 billion. Insurance underwriting and investment income faced some cyclical pressure. Net earnings (GAAP, including volatile investment gains/losses): Roughly $67 billion in 2025, impacted by mark-to-market

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ The S&P 500 ETF climbed a steady 0.58% to $679.91 today, notching its second consecutive all-time high as easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East provided a supportive tailwind and kept risk appetite alive ahead of next week's earnings season kickoff. 😤 Storage plays, AI cloud infrastructure, and semiconductor names continue to power the index's breakout momentum, but internal divergence is widening fast — strong inflows into AMZN, SNDK, and CRWD highlight selective buying in high-conviction AI themes, while MSFT and ORCL lagged noticeably on capex and valuation concerns. This setup raises the big question: Can the first full week of earnings become the next upside catalyst that pushes the S&P through the psycho

USO just clawed back 1.91% to $126.96, staging a technical recovery after yesterday's near-10% plunge as the geopolitical risk premium tied to the U.S.-Iran ceasefire window nears exhaustion. 😤 This snapback highlights oil's sensitivity to any sign of de-escalation, but the broader picture remains murky with OPEC+ production increase expectations looming and slowing global demand growth capping medium-term upside. $130 stands as the immediate resistance level that bulls must conquer to confirm sustained momentum. With the ceasefire providing temporary breathing room, the big question is whether this rebound stabilizes within the window or sets up another breakdown-driven move if talks falter. Emerging markets are watching closely, with Latin America's commodity flows pulling inflows 8% as

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$  $C3.ai, Inc.(AI)$  🚨📊⚡ Institutional Options Flow: Smart Money Concentrates into AI, Semiconductors & Strategic Assets ⚡📊🚨 $PLTR $CRWV $EWZ $SMH $NBIS $NOW $MRVL $MRNA $SNOW $EOSE $AI $CRWD $POET $AAOI $PANW $CONL $FSLY $NET $HTZ $MAGS $MEOH $BTDR 🔍 Flow Regime Shift: From Hedging to High-Conviction Positioning Institutional activity expanded aggressively today, with multiple names printing 2x–6x+ average options volume. This was not defensive hedging. The structure of flow confirms deliberate capital deployment into targeted themes. Call dominance across the board signals di

$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$  $Philadelphia Semiconductor Index(SOX)$  🌙 Front-Loaded Rally Signals Positioning Unwind, Not Structural Repricing This week’s gains were overwhelmingly concentrated in the Tuesday overnight squeeze. The Nasdaq Composite closed +4.7%, outperforming the Russell 2000 at +4%, the S&P 500 at +3.6%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average at +3%. That distribution is not incidental. When the bulk of upside is delivered in a single session, I interpret it as short-covering, CTA re-leveraging, and systematic flow acceleration rather than sustained institutional accumulation. Geopolitical developments tied to Dona

Oil’s rebound matters more than the headline drop. Yes, crude crashed after the ceasefire, but the market is already showing that the energy risk premium did not disappear overnight. Brent fell sharply on the initial truce news, yet supply concerns around Hormuz, tanker movement, and infrastructure damage are still keeping the floor under oil much higher than pre-crisis levels. That is why I think this bounce in oil is worth respecting. A near-10% plunge can unwind panic fast, but when prices stabilize quickly after that, it tells me the market still believes the Middle East supply story is not fully resolved. Even after the ceasefire announcement, major outlets noted the truce was fragile and shipping through the Strait remained uncertain. My take: this looks less like “risk premium is go

Silver and Gold Trading Pattern Detection I expect some retracement coming next week. The truce news lead to a one day super rally which promptly corrected down before the dayeneded. But it was still a nice day run. The next day we saw some up again with the scare about truce being violated not getting worst. But it will now be BAU. Expect profit taking and sense of caution to get in again next week.

One deleted post from Michael Burry just wiped $23 billion off Palantir's market cap in a single day. PLTR closed April 9 at $130.49, down 7.3%, extending a two-day loss of over 13%. The stock is now down 28% year to date and sitting 38% below its November 2025 peak of $207. Meanwhile, the broader market held its ground. This was not a macro selloff. This was targeted. So is Burry right? And is $130 the buy of the year, or a value trap on its way to his $50 price target? Let's actually dig into it. 🐻 Burry's Bear Case: What He Actually Said Burry posted then deleted his critique on X, but not before the damage was done. His argument in plain terms: Anthropic is eating Palantir's lunch in enterprise AI. He cited Ramp's March AI Index showing Anthropic capturing 73% of all new enterprise AI

A lot of you have followed this account through some genuinely painful months. MARA from the mid-teens down to single digits. COIN cut in half. BMNR more than halved. If you've been watching the trade feed, you've seen the unrealised damage in real time. I'm not going to dress it up — running concentrated in two crypto-adjacent names through this drawdown has been brutal, and the wheel premium has been the only thing quietly stitching the wound while the underlying bled. But here's the thing. The lesson isn't "crypto bad" or "stop selling premium." The lesson is that one or two names should never decide whether the lab eats or starves. That changes now. What The Portfolio Has Actually Been For most of the last year the portfolio has been mostly MARA and COIN. That's the honest truth. Some

I lean towards top performers, not “top traded” names. High volume often signals crowded trades, not strong fundamentals. Portfolio-wise, focus should be: Core: AI, semis, infra Tactical: oversold cyclicals Avoid: hype-driven turnover plays For REITs: CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust: stable, decent income, but limited upside Keppel DC REIT: AI tailwind, but rate-sensitive Dividends are “comfortable” only if rates fall. Otherwise, yields are less compelling vs risk-free returns. Bottom line: REITs = income buffer, not growth engine.