To The Moon

Six weeks ago, investors were desperate to get into $SpaceX(SPCX)$ . Today, many seem just as eager to bet against it. The stock was priced at $135 in its IPO, surged to $225.64, and finished last week at $115.07—nearly 49% below its peak. Along the way, an estimated $15.5 billion in paper profits accumulated on short positions. The mood has completely flipped. And that's exactly why this story is becoming more interesting. The first lesson was about hype. The second is about positioning. Before the IPO, the biggest risk wasn't the business itself—it was investor behavior. Too many buyers chased too few shares, and scarcity helped fuel an explosive rally. When the stock later fell back to its IPO price, some investors immediately assumed $135 had

Even as $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ slipped to a fresh one-month low this week, a small group of stocks continued to demonstrate notable relative strength by closing above all of their key moving averages. This week's leaders include: $Hewlett Packard Enterprise(HPE)$ — Communication Equipment $Dell Technologies Inc.(DELL)$ — Computer Hardware $Csquare, Inc.(CSQR)$ — Information Technology Services $Cipher Mining Inc.(CIFR)$ — Information Technology Services $Gates Industrial Corp PLC(GTES)$ — Specialty Industrial Machinery

I want to buy stocks under accumulation. Then, as price tightens before a breakout, I want volume to dry up—showing that supply has stopped coming to the market. On the breakout, I want volume to expand again. I use this in conjunction with my VCP Tightness score and, most importantly, my own review of the chart. High-volume up days above my RVOL threshold—1.5x here, but fully customizable—highlight the chart GREEN from top to bottom. High-volume down days highlight it RED. I want to see plenty of green during the prior advance, followed by tight, quiet price and volume action. I do NOT want to see red in the days prior to the breakout (there are exceptions). $BlackBerry(BB)$ is an extreme example, but a clean one. Look at all the green after the 4/

These companies have something unusual and rare in common. Their FCF has high and predictable growth (2nd and 3rd column), while their FCF yield remains fairly constant (4th column). In other words, their share price appreciation has been through FCF going up, not a re-rating leading to FCF yield contracting. $Republic(RSG)$ $Nordson(NDSN)$ $Allegion PLC(ALLE)$ $Travelers(TRV)$ $Medpace(MEDP)$ $Intercontinental Exchange(ICE)$ $Primerica(PRI)$ $Hartford Insuranc

When I look at $MSCI Inc(MSCI)$ I see three things: 1. A great company with strong financial metrics 2. An attractive valuation 3. A share price that hasn’t done anything for 5 years To me this could means one of two things: 1. The market is right and in the future profitability and business quality will deteriorate 2. The market is wrong and is underestimating future profitability and business quality If it’s the latter, a catalyst will be needed to convince the market that MSCI deserves a higher share price. I agree it’s subjective. But two objective points are (1) its FCF yield is now at a long term high. And (2) other companies of this quality are trading at lower FCF yields.

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ will crash 2-3% on Wednesday's FOMC if this happens: Everyone knows we're staying at 3.50% to 3.75%, so I'm not trading the decision. What I'm watching is what Warsh says at 2:30, and here's the detail most people miss: PCE doesn't drop until Thursday morning. He has to stand up there and talk about inflation without having seen the number. So what does he actually have in front of him? Core still sticky above 3%. Jobless claims at 187K, the lowest since 1969. Oil back above $100. Nothing in that stack gives him a single reason to sound soft, and a Fed chair who can't sound soft usually ends up sounding hawkish by default. Now here's the part I think people have completely backwards. The bear case isn't "no cut in

I STOLE THIS SECRET FROM A MILLIONAIRE TRADER IN 2021: Everyone watches where price goes. Almost nobody watches where price closes. That's the whole edge. A candle's wick is the argument. The close is the verdict. Look at the chart Same shooting star. Same setup. Two completely different outcomes and the only difference is where the next candle finished. Left side (valid): the confirmation candle closes in the bottom 1/3 of the shooting star's range. Sellers didn't just show up, they took the whole thing back. Buyers who bought that spike are now underwater. That's a real handoff of control. Right side (invalid): the confirmation candle closes in the middle 1/3. Sellers pushed, buyers absorbed it, price stalled. Nobody's trapped. That's not a reversal, that's a pause and shorts who entered