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08-13
🚀 Goldman Eyes 8,000 for the S&P 500: What’s Driving the Rally—and What Could Trip It Up?
1. Executive Summary The S&P 500 is already up ~20 record closes this year — and $Goldman Sachs(GS)$thinks it isn't done climbing. The bank's U.S. equity strategy team just raised its year-end target from 7,600 to 8,000, betting that earnings growth (not a richer multiple) carries the index the rest of the way. Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley have landed on the same 8,000 target, while Yardeni Research is even more aggressive at 8,300. 📌 Key Insight: When four major shops converge on the same target, the interesting question isn't if stocks go higher — it's what's actually driving the call, and what could break it. 2. The Run So Far $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ has a
TOPWanEH: There is a high probability that "Teflon Inflation" will not last until the end of the year, and the global and American inflationary pressure is accelerating from "high sticky" to "accelerated sliding". The latest labor market data shows that U.S. wage growth has consistently and definitively lagged inflation. Last week, non-agricultural companies were upset by 23,000 staff, which directly deprived consumers of the capital to bear higher prices. When residents' wallets can't handle the price increase, inflation has no soil to stick to before the end of the year.
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08-13
🔥❄️Beating Isn't Enough? The AI "Ice and Fire" Saga: CRWV, NBIS,CHOR, SMIC, CSCO, CRBS
Mild CPI eases rate hike fears. AI infra earnings explode. Optical communication leads the rally — but $Coherent(COHR)$ beats and drops 5%, $Cerebras Systems(CBRS)$ 16%. The market is voting with its feet: not all AI stories can deliver. 🐯Hi, Tigers! Today's Script: "Divergence" Last night's US session was a masterclass in selective buying: AI infrastructure names exploded, optical communication stocks partied, but the Mag 7 quietly exited stage left. Before the bell, July CPI came in at +3.4% YoY (prior 3.5%), core CPI +2.5% (prior 2.6%) — both as expected, both cooling. Rate hike fears eased: CME FedWatch shows the probability of the Fed holding rates steady i
TOPThe most interesting takeaway from this earnings season is that AI demand is not slowing down — the market is simply becoming more selective. CRWV and NBIS were rewarded because their numbers show real demand: accelerating revenue, massive backlogs, and improving profitability. SMCI also benefited because AI demand is translating directly into stronger revenue and margins. Meanwhile, COHR and CBRS tell the other side of the story. COHR delivered a strong quarter, but after a huge run-up, a simple beat was no longer enough. CBRS had impressive future commitments, yet investors focused on weak hardware revenue. That tells us where the market is heading: AI stories are cheap. AI earnings are valuable. Going forward, I would focus less on who has the most exciting AI narrative and more on who can convert demand into revenue, margins and cash flow without an unrealistic valuation. The AI boom may not be ending. The easy-money phase of the AI trade may be. @TigerObserver [正经]
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08-13
Why Enovix’s 1,000-Cycle Milestone Matters More Than Its $9 Million Revenue
$Enovix Corporation(ENVX)$ remains a development-stage battery company whose valuation depends far more on product qualification and manufacturing execution than on current sales. Its second-quarter update provided incremental evidence that a high-energy smartphone battery can meet a major customer’s durability requirements, but commercial scale is still unproven. Enovix reported after the August 12 close for the quarter ended June 28. Revenue increased 21% year over year and 19% sequentially to $9.0 million, the fifth consecutive quarter of annual growth. Its GAAP loss was $0.20 per share and its non-GAAP loss was $0.13. Enovix’s official second-quarter release provides the results and programme updates. The most important evidence was technical
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08-13
Why Cerebras’ Cloud Growth Could Not Offset Its Margin and Backlog Questions
$Cerebras Systems(CBRS)$ nearly quadrupled its AI-cloud business in the second quarter and raised its annual forecast. Its shares nevertheless fell sharply after hours, showing that investors are looking beyond revenue growth to the cost of supplying computing capacity and the speed at which a large backlog converts into recognised sales. Cerebras reported after the August 12 close for the quarter ended June 30. GAAP revenue increased 74% year over year to $180.1 million, while its core measure of revenue increased 103% to $209.9 million. Core cloud revenue rose 287% to $127.7 million, but hardware revenue declined to $54.1 million from $70.3 million. The company raised expected 2026 core revenue to $880–$890 million from $855–$865 million. Cerebr
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08-13
Live Recap 4: Beyond NVDA — Power, TSMC, China Tech and the Next AI Opportunities
1. Live Review Introduction Tiger Brokers livestream featuring Ross Dong, Founding Partner at Morning Cloud Asset Management, specializing in macro trading and U.S. equities. A former equity trader at firms including J.P. Morgan and KCG, Ross holds a degree in Applied Mathematics from Columbia University. In this section, Ross explores where the next AI opportunity could emerge if the first wave of the AI trade was dominated by GPUs and hyperscalers. Ross believes the AI value chain is broadening beyond chips into power, infrastructure, advanced manufacturing, cybersecurity, China tech, and robotics. His key message: the next AI winner may not look like a traditional AI stock. Disclaimer: All views and company examples reflect discussion by the livestream guest and are provided for educati
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08-13
Why Cisco’s $9.3 Billion AI Order Book Still Couldn’t Protect Its Margin
$Cisco(CSCO)$’s fiscal fourth-quarter report confirmed that artificial-intelligence infrastructure has become a material growth engine rather than a presentation talking point. The uncomfortable part was that investors could see the cost of that growth in the company’s margins. Cisco reported after the August 12 close for the quarter ended July 25. Revenue increased 18% year over year to $17.3 billion, while non-GAAP earnings reached $1.22 per share. Networking revenue grew 28% to $9.79 billion. For the full fiscal year, orders for AI infrastructure from hyperscale customers reached $9.3 billion, including approximately $4 billion in the fourth quarter. Cisco’s official fourth-quarter release provides the reported figures and guidance. The bullish
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08-10
The Right Way to Chase Gold Highs; Equities to Consolidate — Trade Options for Time Decay
The first week of each month is usually the most important, as the latest non-farm payrolls data are released during this period. These figures often set the tone for the market throughout the rest of the month. This is particularly true when the market is highly sensitive to interest-rate expectations, as the release can quickly shift investor preferences. For this reason, I usually adopt a relatively cautious stance during the first week of the month. The non-farm payrolls report released this month significantly exceeded market expectations. While the market had expected an increase of 80,000 jobs, the actual figure showed a decline of 23,000 jobs. This dealt a blow to expectations of a stronger US economy. Meanwhile, the probability of a rate hike in September fell directly from 60% to
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08-13
Why CAVA’s Traffic Growth Makes Its 14% Rally More Than a Pricing Story
$CAVA Group Inc.(CAVA)$’s second-quarter report offered an unusually healthy combination for a restaurant chain: it opened many new locations while established restaurants attracted more customers. That distinction matters because comparable-sales growth driven by traffic is generally more durable than growth created mainly by menu-price increases. CAVA reported after the August 11 close for the quarter ended July 12. Revenue increased 31.3% year over year to $365.4 million. Same-restaurant sales rose 9.0%, comprising 5.3% traffic growth and 3.7% from price and mix. The company opened 17 net new restaurants, bringing the total to 476, almost 20% more than one year earlier. CAVA’s official second-quarter release provides the operating and financial
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08-13
Live Recap 3: AI Has Burned Billions — Are the Returns Finally Showing Up? Top Tickers Included
1. Live Review Introduction Tiger Brokers livestream featuring Ross Dong, Founding Partner at Morning Cloud Asset Management, specializing in macro trading and U.S. equities. A former equity trader at firms including J.P. Morgan and KCG, Ross holds a degree in Applied Mathematics from Columbia University. In this session, the biggest question around AI is no longer whether the technology works — it is whether the returns can justify the enormous spending behind it. Ross argued that while AI infrastructure remains expensive, cloud revenue, adoption and monetisation are beginning to improve. At the same time, he stressed that technological progress and speculative excess can coexist. More from the livestream recap series Live
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08-11
Why Gold Is Diverging from Real Rates—and Could Trigger a Second U.S. Equity Pullback 💹📉
Recent capital markets can be summed up in one word: conflicted. On one side, gold has charted an entirely independent course despite the pressure of high interest rates. On the other, U.S. equities have repeatedly swung between earnings support and the risks associated with elevated valuations. Against this macro backdrop, how should investors construct an appropriate trading strategy? Today, we will examine the underlying logic behind gold and expectations for a range-bound U.S. equity market, and take an in-depth look at how the market is operating at present. Pay Attention to the Unusual Divergence Between Gold and U.S. Real Rates For a long time, gold and real interest rates—bond yields adjusted for inflation—have had a classic seesaw relationship. Because gold is a non-yieldin
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08-13
Coherent Q4: AI Optics Keeps Growing, but Capacity Must Deliver
$Coherent(COHR)$ fiscal year 2026 fourth-quarter results were strong. Revenue, profit and next-quarter guidance all beat market forecasts. The debate has moved from whether AI optical demand is real to whether Coherent can add capacity on time and how much growth is already priced into the stock. Q4 revenue reached $2.046 billion, up 33.8% year over year and 13.3% quarter over quarter, passing $2 billion for the first time. Non-GAAP gross margin was 40.2%, up 2.15 percentage points from a year ago. Non-GAAP operating profit rose 62% to $446 million, while adjusted earnings per share grew 74% to $1.74. Profit grew much faster than revenue, showing gains in product mix, yields and pricing. Coherent fiscal year 2026 Q4 results Full-ye
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08-13
Trump’s $3 Billion Minerals Push: Is It Time to Buy U.S. Rare-Earth and Magnet Stocks?
The U.S. critical-minerals trade is moving beyond tariffs and geopolitical headlines. Washington is now using equity investments, long-term loans, price floors and purchase guarantees to build an independent supply chain. That improves the sector’s long-term investment case—but the latest funding does not benefit every rare-earth stock equally. Where Is the Money Actually Going? On August 7, President Donald Trump met with more than 200 mining executives, investors, educators and government officials as part of his effort to make the United States a “minerals superpower.” Reuters estimated that the newly announced critical-minerals, battery and related investments totaled approximately $3 billion. The White House separately listed more than $2 billion in mining-related projects and over $1
TOPMy Take on Critical Minerals I think this is more than another speculative mining rally. Washington is now providing capital, price protection and guaranteed demand, which could fundamentally improve the economics of U.S. critical-mineral projects. For me, MP Materials (MP) is still the strongest pick because it already has mining, separation and magnet production. UUUU is the more aggressive alternative with heavy rare-earth and uranium exposure. I wouldn't chase every small-cap miner. The real winners will be those that turn government support into production and sustainable cash flow. MP for the core position, UUUU for higher-risk upside. @Tiger_comments
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08-13
Live Recap 1: Why Ross Cut AI Exposure Before the Sell-Off — Inside a Fund Manager's Risk Framework
1. Live Review Introduction Tiger Brokers livestream featuring Ross Dong, Founding Partner at Morning Cloud Asset Management, specializing in macro trading and U.S. equities. Ross shared how he combines top-down and bottom-up analysis to navigate market cycles — including why his fund reduced AI and semiconductor exposure before the July correction. His key message: Being bullish on AI long-term does not mean ignoring short-term market risk. Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of the guest speaker and do not represent Tiger Brokers or its affiliates. This content is for education and discussion purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. More from the livestream recap series Live Recap 2: Rate Cuts, Jack
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08-13
Live Recap 2: Rate Cuts, Jackson Hole and Market Risk — Ross's U.S. Market Playbook
1. Live Review Introduction Tiger Brokers livestream featuring Ross Dong, Founding Partner at Morning Cloud Asset Management, specializing in macro trading and U.S. equities. A former equity trader at firms including J.P. Morgan and KCG, Ross holds a degree in Applied Mathematics from Columbia University. In this session, he shared his views on inflation, employment, interest rates, U.S. equity valuations, and market positioning. Ross remains constructive on U.S. equities in the near term, but believes late August and September could bring higher volatility and require more selective positioning. Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of the guest speaker and do not represent the official views of Tiger Brokers or its affiliates. This content is strictly for education and discussion pur
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08-13
AI Keeps Moving Higher
Hello everyone！Today i want to share some trading ideas with you! 1 $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ is up nearly 30% because this quarter showed the AI compute shortage is translating into better pricing, faster paybacks, higher margins and better financing. Nebius now earns ~$25M per MW on normal contracts and up to $50M for immediate capacity while Q2 deals pay back in under two years and customers fund roughly half the capex upfront. That pricing power is already showing up in the market with its first capacity auction clearing 15% above prior $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Blackwell pricing, AI cloud margins reaching 50% and management saying it could sell all of 2027 capacity today.
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08-13
The AI Value Chain: Who Wins, Who Loses?
Some of the more exciting themes right now: 1. Silicon Photonics Safest bet: $Lumentum(LITE)$ $Coherent(COHR)$ $Marvell Technology(MRVL)$ $Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd(CRDO)$ Moderate risk: $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$ Highest risk: $POET Technologies Inc(POET)$ $Aeva Technologies Inc.(AEVA)$ 2. Solid Oxide Fuel Cells Safest bet:
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08-13
SPCX: The Rebound Time is Coming
Hello everyoone! Great timing--after my "bullish now for $SpaceX(SPCX)$" call last week, it has risen over 40%. Following the roadmap pretty well. First target: $170. MPW Mid-week Update Posted: (1) hope you caught that pent-up move from $SpaceX(SPCX)$, as I identified & marked on the chart real time. (2) also, with VIX closed at the lowest level of 2026, the boring summer may be over.
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08-13
TRADE PLAN for Thursday 📈
TRADE PLAN for Thursday 📈 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ all eyes on 7800 this month, once it gets through 8000 comes fast. The NASDAQ- $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ has lots of room to catch up since SPX already broke the all time highs.. We're going to see a rotation back into Chip and memory stocks in the near future. When it does $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ will run to 748 very quickly. QQQ through 748 will set up for a multi week rally to 800 $Micron Technology(MU)$ to 1250 coming once it gets back above 1000. 930 is a breakout level for tomorrow, watch to see if it can get through.. If
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08-13
VIX, MU, KOSPI& DELL See the Recovery Now
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some technical analysis with you! 1 $Dell Technologies Inc.(DELL)$This has NOT technically broken out yet because the weekly candle has not closed. However, nearing a potentially status quo changing breakout by the end of the week. 2 $CSOP KOSPI(03121)$ The Korean index is suggesting the memory/chip trade may be back on for the next couple of weeks. 3 $Micron Technology(MU)$ I’m not remotely close to the IQ, but I really don’t see how this doesn’t go to at least $1,000 at this point. 4 $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ This is
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08-13
JPM, CBRS, DELL, TOST& AMZN Show the Different Momentum
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some technical analysis with you! 1 Buying $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ here means you're paying less per dollar the company makes than at ANY point in the last decade... 🌶️ 2 🚨$Toast, Inc.(TOST)$ is seeing its first Stage 2 breakout since early 2024 Shares ran over +150% the last time we saw this occur 👀 3 $Dell Technologies Inc.(DELL)$ knocking on the door of all-time highs 🚪✊ 4 $Cerebras Systems(CBRS)$ OUCH 🩸 Q2 EPS: $(2.98) vs $(1.41) est ❌ Q2 Sales: $180.110M vs $194.202M est ❌ 🟥 -9.14% 5 Its been a red hot summer for the ban