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08-25
AXTI Beat Earnings by Nearly 3x, Then Gave Back Half Its Rally
Six weeks ago, $AXT Inc(AXTI)$ was a quiet, niche materials supplier trading in the high-$30s. Then a blowout earnings print sent it as high as $96, before the stock gave back a meaningful chunk of that move and now trades in the high-$60s to low-$70s. Before SPR's technical coverage on AXTI updates next week, here's the fundamental case underneath the volatility: what actually drove the surge, what Wall Street thinks it's worth now, and the export-permit risk that's been the company's recurring headache for three years running. The News Behind the Move Picture a small semiconductor-materials company that most investors had never heard of, quietly supplying the wafers that go into fiber-optic lasers — and then AI data center demand shows up at its
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08-25
3 MASSIVE CATALYSTS FOR $SPY THIS WEEK
The market has three major events to watch, and the setup could get interesting fast. 👀 1️⃣ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Earnings Could Set the Tone I expect $NVDA to beat both EPS and revenue, but the real hurdle is Q3 guidance of $104B+. 📈 Bullish setup: A strong print could fuel a run toward $230+. ⚠️ The catch: A lot of the good news may already be priced in. The move into earnings could get tricky, so I’d rather wait for a potential dip and look closer to $200. 2️⃣ PCE Inflation Data 📊 Wednesday, 8:30 AM Consensus is looking for PCE to come in around 3.2%–3.3%. If inflation comes in cooler than feared → bullish for $SPY 🚀 A softer inflation print could reinforce expectations for easier Fed policy and give equities another catalyst higher. 3️⃣ Jackson Hole
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08-25
$SPX Bearish Setup Still Intact
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ bounce is here, just as expected. But there is still NO bullish SMT supporting a sustained reversal, so I’m treating the recent move as a relief bounce within a broader bearish structure. 🔻 What I’m Watching The bearish 5-wave decline now appears largely in place, which favors a relief bounce next. The open gap at 7629 sits just below and could be tagged first to complete W5. If $SPX breaks above today’s high, that would strengthen the case that the 2/B-wave bounce is getting underway. 🎯 Key Resistance The Daily FVG at 7714–7776 remains the main resistance zone. A rejection there → W3 lower becomes the preferred scenario. ⚠️ The Bigger Confirmation 7566 remains the key higher-degree level. Break below 7566 → the larger 10–15% c
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08-25
What the Bond Market Is Telling Us
One of the big topics on Wall Street over the past few weeks has been interest rates. I’m not talking about the Fed funds rate, which is the one mentioned after Fed meetings and where the Fed actually has some control. I’m talking about long-term rates. These rates are set by the market. The market will take hints from the Fed, but if the Fed, White House, or Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent want to lower long-term rates, they have fewer options to influence the market. It’s possible to impact the market with something like “quantitative easing,” which is essentially printing money to buy bonds, but you'd better do it at a massive scale with $40 trillion in debt outstanding! That hasn’t happened, and the market is now demanding a higher return (yield) on 30-year U.S. treasury bonds than at
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08-25
IONQ Cycle Recap: Record Earnings, a Two-Tier Risk Round Trip, and a Bullish Position
🍰 Last Week's Full Course: $IONQ Inc.(IONQ)$ From last week's opening report to this week's daily coverage, here's how the SPR cycle for IONQ actually played out — and what it means going forward. All reports are published at pretiming.report. A note before the recap: this batch included the opening Weekly report, three Daily reports (Aug 17–19), and the closing Weekly report — the Thursday and Friday Daily write-ups for this week weren't part of this set. Where those two sessions matter to the story, this recap draws only on the closing Weekly's own account of them, not on invented figures. IONQ's week opened with a familiar tension: record Q2 revenue growth the stock still wasn't rewarding. It closed with that tension essentially unresolved, bu
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08-25
Pelosi Is Buying the Dip!
Just now, news broke that Pelosi disclosed buying the dip on $Intel(INTC)$ $Bloom Energy Corp(BE)$ — purchasing 15,000 shares of BE, 10,000 shares of INTC, as well as 500 BE LEAPS calls $BE 20270617 100.0 CALL$ and 500k worth of INTC LEAPS calls $INTC 20270617 50.0 CALL$. Using deep ITM LEAPS calls to buy the dip has many advantages: you only need half the capital to gain exposure equivalent to 100 shares of the underlying stock. Deep ITM calls are resistant to downside moves and can be exercised. The only drawback is that leverage is lower than OTM calls. BE was once a cor
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08-24
8/24 Pre-Market Thoughts: Alibaba
One-sentence theme: Alibaba's largest-ever HK$80 billion secondary offering drained liquidity from the Hong Kong market, triggering a sharp drop in Hong Kong stocks. U.S. equities are in a wait-and-see mode between Bessent's trillion-dollar buyback (which the market doubts) and Friday's Jackson Hole symposium. I. Sentiment Focus: Alibaba's Massive Capital Drain Bleeds Hong Kong Alibaba plans a HK$80 billion secondary offering at HK$112.7 per share — the largest-ever new share placement in Hong Kong history, aimed at solidifying its AI leadership position. This is the direct cause of today's Hong Kong market plunge: a placement = discounted new shares = dilution + supply shock. The placement price of HK$112.7 is below the current price → pulling the stock price directly toward HK$112.7, whi
TOPEvanHolt: Does that HK$80B raise really lock in AI leadership though, or is management just selling a story? Until the cash is deployed, price pressure still looks heavier.
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08-24
Bitcoin Surges 23% in a Week — How Long Can This Rally Last?
Bitcoin jumped 22% last week, marking its biggest weekly gain in three years. At one point, Bitcoin surged as much as 9.4% in a single day, reaching around $77,000. Meanwhile, inflows into Bitcoin ETFs also reached their highest level in 10 months. The 13 U.S.-listed funds attracted a combined $1.92 billion in net inflows, the strongest weekly total since October last year. So why did Bitcoin rally so sharply this time? I think there are several key reasons. 1. The direct catalyst: U.S. Treasury bond buybacks The U.S. Treasury’s long-term bond buyback program helped push down long-term Treasury yields, directly improving sentiment across the cryptocurrency market. The rapid rise in Bitcoin also forced traders to close billions of dollars worth of short positions, creating additional buying
TOPETF inflows were strong, but GBTC outflows still matter. That 1.92B headline can mask some profit taking if Grayscale holdings keep bleeding.
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08-24
Wall Street's Rating Storm: The Stocks That Got a Collective "Buy" Upgrade This Past Week
[Allin]Hi Tigers~ is your holding stocks being upgraded？ Over the past week (August 17–24), Wall Street analysts appeared to reach a quiet consensus: amid lingering macroeconomic uncertainty, capital is actively hunting for conviction. From tech titans to the AI semiconductor supply chain, from cloud software to telecom infrastructure, a wave of prominent firms issued dense clusters of rating upgrades and price-target hikes, injecting a fresh dose of optimism into the market. 1. $Apple(AAPL)$ : The Most Aggressive Bullish Signal If one stock captured the most explosive bullish signal of the week, the answer is undoubtedly Apple (AAPL). On August 17, Rothschild & Co Redburn upgraded Apple from "Neutral" to "Buy," simultaneously lifting its pric
TOPI think in this wave of rating upgrades, the most worthwhile thing is not the target price itself, but that Wall Street is continuing to spread AI logic from "chip" to "software and infrastructure". Apple's $400 target price is certainly eye-catching, but I won't directly chase after it just because a single institution has raised it sharply. In contrast, BMO is optimistic that NVDA, AMD, AVGO, MRVL and MU are more representative at the same time, indicating that the institution still believes that the AI infrastructure cycle is not over, but gradually spreads from single GPU to storage, network, ASIC and interconnection. I am more concerned about who can really turn AI investment into profit in the next stage: the hardware side looks at orders and gross profit margin, the software side looks at ARR, subscription and cash flow, and the infrastructure side looks at whether AI demand can bring continuous utilization improvement. Bottom line: a rating upgrade can be used as a clue, but not as a buying point; What is really worth following is that funds are shifting from "AI story" to "AI realization".
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08-21
Does Oracle Still Have 76% Upside? 4 Key Takeaways from This Investment Sharing Session
4 Key Takeaways from Tiger Brokers’ Offline Investment Sharing Session Yesterday, I attended an offline investment sharing session hosted by Tiger Brokers. There was a lot of information, so I’ve summarized the four points that I believe are most relevant to everyday investors. 1. Oracle: The AI Rally May Be Expanding from Chips to Infrastructure One set of Oracle data presented at the event really caught my attention. As of May 2026, Oracle’s RPO (Remaining Performance Obligations) had reached US$638 billion. Put simply, this represents contracted revenue that has already been signed and is expected to be recognized over time. This figure has surpassed Amazon’s US$496 billion and Google’s US$520 billion, and is approaching Microsoft’s US$678 billion. Yet as of August 14, Oracle’s market c
TOPThat RPO gap is hard to ignore. Market still feels behind on Oracle as AI infrastructure broadens beyond chips
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08-24
$TENCENT(00700)$
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08-24
$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ coming back soon i think
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08-24
XPeng Misses on Guidance and Losses Deepen – Is There Any Hope Left?
$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$ Released Its 2026 Q2 Earnings This Afternoon; Overall Performance Was Mediocre, and U.S. Pre-Market Shares Dropped Nearly 4% After the Report. The results show that for the second quarter of 2026, revenue came in at RMB 19.74 billion, up 8% year-over-year and 51.5% quarter-over-quarter, missing the consensus estimate of RMB 20.2 billion. Gross margin was 20.7%, an increase of 3.4 percentage points from the same period last year and above the consensus estimate of 19.15%. On an adjusted basis, the comparable net loss was RMB -1.237 billion, far worse than the expected loss of RMB -0.767 billion. The profit shortfall was mainly due to a swing from gain to loss on a long-term investment, creating a paper loss of app
TOPThere is still hope here. Revenue and gross margin actually beat the fear, and that loss was mostly paper marks plus heavier R&D, not core operations suddenly falling apart.
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08-24
$AMGN Eyes $450 After a Strong Earnings Driven Rebound
$Amgen(AMGN)$ $AMGN +1.88% Momentum Builds: Amgen Nears 52-Week High, $457 Target in Sight Latest Close: $439.33 (+1.88%) on Aug 24, 2026 · Just 0.9% below the 52-week high of $443.20. After-hours price: $441.12. Core Market Drivers: Amgen continues to ride the post-earnings momentum from its Q2 beat (EPS $6.29 vs $5.62 est.) and raised full-year guidance. The company's strategic decision to terminate early-stage obesity drug AMG 513 and focus resources on Phase III MariTide has reinforced pipeline discipline. Short volume ratio at 15.25% suggests manageable bearish pressure. Technical Analysis: MACD remains firmly bullish with DIF at 17.03 vs DEA at 14.93 (histogram +4.19), confirming strong upward momentum. RSI(6) at 74.46 and RSI(12) at 73.96 i
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08-24
🚨 NVIDIA’S $5.2 TRILLION TEST: CAN THE AI KING STILL SHOCK WALL STREET?
Part 2 And basically a continuation from my bother NVIDIA post earlier this year on my thoughts. NVIDIA reports fiscal Q2 earnings on Wednesday, August 26. Normally that sentence alone would be enough to get attention. But this time the setup is ridiculous. NVIDIA is sitting around a US$5.2 trillion market cap. The stock closed Friday at US$214.72. Wall Street is expecting roughly US$92 billion in quarterly revenue and around US$2.09 adjusted EPS. That would be another extraordinary quarter for a company that is already the largest public company on the planet. And that is exactly where the problem begins. For NVIDIA now, being excellent may no longer be enough. 📊 THE NUMBERS ARE ALREADY INSANE Last quarter, NVIDIA generated US$81.6 billion in revenue, up 85% year on year. Data Center
TOPI actually think this print is a clean test of Nvidia's pricing power, not just another beat game. If that still holds, 5.2T won't look as stretched lol
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08-24
$GM Gains 2.07% as Consolidation Breakout Puts $89 in Sight
$General Motors(GM)$ $GM Surges +2.07% to $87.93: Legacy Automaker Breaks Consolidation, $89.19 Resistance in Sight 🚗⚡ Latest Close Data 📊 GM closed at $87.93 on Aug 24, 2026 (+2.07%), just 4.27% below its 52-week high of $91.85. Volume hit 5.27M shares with a 1.22 volume ratio, signaling accumulation. Core Market Drivers 📰 Detroit automakers remain focused on USMCA renegotiation risks, but GM's EV transition and Jefferies' July upgrade (Hold→Buy, PT $99) continue underpinning sentiment. The stock extended gains after breaking above its prior consolidation zone. Technical Analysis 🔍 MACD remains negative at -0.84, but DIF (-0.84) is converging toward DEA (1.52), suggesting bearish momentum fading. RSI(6) jumped to 62.55 from 51.58, while RSI(12) rea
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08-24
$LVS Gains 2.31% as Macau and Singapore Recovery Bets Return
$Las Vegas Sands(LVS)$ $Las Vegas Sands(LVS) +2.31% Breakout Attempt: Casino Giant Reclaims $47, MACD Turns Bullish Latest Close: $47.03 (+2.31%) | Range $46.18–$47.08 | 52W High $70.45 | 52W Low $44.21 Core Drivers: LVS bounced off its 52-week low zone as Macau/Singapore recovery sentiment stabilized. Post-market strength (+$0.32 to $47.35) signals continued accumulation after July's post-earnings selloff, when Q2 EPS of $0.59 missed estimates and multiple banks cut targets. Technical Analysis: Volume came in at 3.29M shares (Volume Ratio 0.84), indicating moderate but not explosive participation. MACD just crossed bullish — DIF at -0.235 vs DEA -0.331, producing a positive histogram of +0.192, confirming short-term momentum shift. RSI(6) jumped t
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08-24
$DXCM Sets Its Sights on $100 After Clearing Key Resistance
$DexCom(DXCM)$ $DexCom, Inc.(DXCM) +2.35% Hits 52-Week High at $92.56, Breakout Above $92.43 Resistance Activates $95–$100 Target Zone 🚀 Latest Close Data DXCM closed at $92.34 (+2.35%) on Aug 24, 2026, matching its 52-week high of $92.56 intraday. Price now sits just 0.24% below that high, with after-hours action pushing to $92.50 — a decisive breakout signal above the prior $92.43 resistance shelf. Core Market Drivers Q2 earnings (Jul 31) remain the primary catalyst: EPS of $0.70 beat by $0.09 (+45.8% YoY), revenue of $13.08B exceeded consensus, and full-year guidance was raised to $51.8–$52.5B on strong continuous glucose monitor demand. Short volume has contracted sharply from 1.54M (Aug 11) to 537K (Aug 21), indicating bearish conviction fadi
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08-24
Treasury’s Large-Scale Rescue May Not Be Good？ Be Cautious Chasing Gold Higher
While the market remained focused on the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike, the U.S. Treasury released a surprising announcement last week. The Treasury announced that it would “at least double” the size of its liquidity-support buyback operations for Treasury securities maturing in 10 to 30 years, raising the cap for each buyback from USD 2 billion to at least USD 4 billion. Relative to the USD 31 trillion U.S. Treasury market, this buyback volume is negligible. Nevertheless, the Treasury’s move conveyed several messages to the market. First, long-term bond yields are too high, and the Treasury intends to exert some control over them. Second, Treasury yields around 5% may represent a psychological threshold for the U.S. Treasury; if yields deviate too far from that level, more fo
TOPThis was not exactly a black swan, the market had been sniffing out Treasury support already. What matters more is that the expectation gap is gone, so QQQ probably cracks first if sentiment wobbles again
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08-24
U.S. Equity Technicals Turn Bearish? Several Opportunities Worth Watching (Recent Yield Sharing)
The market did not take long to choose a short- to medium-term direction. Last week, gold and crypto assets both surged, making it clear that the market had entered a new phase of rebound. The previous trading logic can therefore be carried forward naturally, and risk assets are expected to remain resilient through the period before the fourth quarter. The only factor requiring particular caution is the speed of the advance. The logic chain of crypto assets—gold—risk assets changed slightly during last week’s trading. Following the news that the U.S. Treasury would purchase bonds, gold reacted most quickly. However, in terms of both absolute gains and the pace of appreciation, Bitcoin and Ethereum—whose volatility is inherently higher—soon staged a catch-up move and outperformed the earlie
TOPCrude still looks constructive to me. Inventory draws and backwardation matter more here than the entry plan, and that stop-to-breakeven shift makes sense