To The Moon

Following last weekend’s Jackson Hole symposium, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a relatively hawkish message, prompting the market to reassess and reprice the timing of U.S. interest-rate hikes. According to the current FedWatch data, the probability of a rate hike at the end of September is slightly above 50%. This implies that the next round of nonfarm payroll and inflation data to be released next month could play an important role. From a data perspective, the probability of a rate hike surged by nearly 20 percentage points within just one week, driven entirely by Warsh’s remarks rather than by any other major economic data releases. However, based on historical experience, only probabilities above 70% tend to produce near-certain outcomes. With the current probability still below 60%

Late August is typically when the world’s central banks hold a major annual gathering. The Federal Reserve—the “central bank of the world,” as it is sometimes described—is the central figure at the event, and remarks from the Fed Chair are often viewed as a briefing to central banks around the world on the Fed’s policy path. At present, the financial market’s primary concern is whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates and, if so, when. That is why Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish remarks last week had a significant impact on market expectations. The most direct result was that, following Warsh’s speech in Jackson Hole on August 28, 2026, the interest-rate futures-implied probability of a September rate hike rose from approximately 35% the previous day to nearly 60%. A rate hike

Chang Pengyao (Oliver) @Oliver 的期权旅途 is a seasoned investor with years of hands-on options trading experience. Starting with a five-figure portfolio and gradually building it to an eight-figure level, he has gone through multiple market cycles, mistakes and drawdowns along the way. Over time, he developed a trading framework centred on probability, pricing, position sizing and risk management. “Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win.” Oliver quoted this line from The Art of War as the central idea behind his sharing. He used the Chu–Han Contention as an example. Liu Bang lost repeatedly to Xiang Yu in direct battles, yet Xiang Yu was ultimately the