To The Moon

The stock market closed muted this week. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ finished flat (+0.1%) following an intra-week pullback that exceeded our bearish target of 7,642. By Thursday, weak economic data (ADP) and dovish remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller (who noted he would support holding interest rates steady this month if incoming inflation numbers remain favorable) sparked a relief rally. However, as I highlighted last night in my daily note, key structural elements warranted skepticism regarding continuation for today. To avoid premature moves, I rely on daily levels to validate each thesis. For today, 7,730 served as the anticipated central daily level (CDL) dictating bullish or bearish momentum. Once price broke below that lev

This week we got a peak into OpenAIs new model Astra. I thought this was an important model because it’s rumored to use a new technique called recurrent depth. In this post I want to discuss what that means and what the implications are. But first - a quick timeline of some of the larger breakthroughs in model architecture: 2017: The Transformer era. The leap here was self-attention mechanism. Before 2017 recurrent neural networks (RNNs) processed text word-by-word. The now famous paper Attention is Al You Need introduced the Transformer architecture which made parallel training possible 2018-2020: Decoder-Only Architectures. The leap here was autoregressive scaling and in-context learning. Early on transformers used a encoder-decoder setup (like BERT). OpenAI flipped this by scaling decod