It’s coming to 2 weeks since US government shutdown ended. On Wed, 12 Nov 2025, Trump signed the bipartisan funding bill that reopened the government and extended funding thru 30 Jan 2026. Effectively kicking the budget-bucket further down the road instead of addressing it heads on. With that, US economic reporting resumed, showing actual state of the US economy. Many believe these negative reports all played a role to further dampen US market sentiments, kickstarted by (a) Softbank, (b) Michael Burry and (c) Peter Thiel. Jobless Claims. (a) Weekly claims. For the week ended 15 Nov 2025, weekly initial claims fell by -8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 220,000 claims. (see above) Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 230,000 claims for the latest week. Note that latest claims data covered

$CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ $Snowflake(SNOW)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ I’m stepping into this week with conviction because we’re entering a rare alignment. Liquidity is expanding as central banks pivot toward easing, cross-asset flows are rotating into risk, macro data is softening just enough to keep policy accommodative, earnings density across software and semis is the highest of the quarter, sector rotation is accelerating into value and cyclicals, metals continue to rally on sovereign demand and structural supply deficits, and December seasonality is flashing green. When the tape sets up like this, I don’t sit back. I position early. 📊 Market Recap I’m ente

In a note to clients, $Goldman Sachs(GS)$ said that the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ index falling below an important level has given hedge funds that follow market trends, signal to possibly sell nearly $40 billion worth of stocks in the next week. By next week, it means the week of 24 Nov 2025, as the note (to clients) was sent on Thu, 20 Nov 2025. On Wed, 19 Nov 2025, the S&P 500 (.SPX) index, declined in value past a threshold of 6,725 on Wednesday. It closed the day at 6,642 level. (see below) As of 21 Nov 2025 After prices fell below 6,642, GS's calculations suggest that over the next week, $39 billion of global equities might be sold. If stock prices extend falls, the bank estimates that systematic trend

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ I am watching a live VOL crush and $SPX has already met my $6,830 🎯 level. Right now, while the market is still open, $SPX is trading around $6,827 and pushing into the key resistance band I track between $6,825 and $6,850. Earlier in the week we saw a tactical flush down toward $6,650. Since then price has reclaimed the $6,800 shelf and is now re-engaging the upper Keltner and Bollinger envelopes on my 4H chart. This is exactly where I want to see how the market responds to the big level today. At the same time, volatility has been crushed. VIX has reset from peaks above 28 in late November t

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ 📈 Market Pulse I’m watching a market that delivered one of the sharpest intraday reversals since the 8Apr tariff panic. Nvidia’s Q3 beat set off a genuine morning breadth thrust with Nasdaq up 2.6%, SPX up 1.9% and the Dow up 1.6%, yet every bit of that surge evaporated within two hours. The Dow closed at 45752.26 for minus 0.84%. SPX finished at 6538.76 for minus 1.56%. The Nasdaq Composite ended at 22078.04 for minus 2.15%. Liquidity pockets thinned quickly and every rally attempt was sold. Breadth deterioration was decisive. NYSE down volume reached 1174.41m versus only 283.90m up volume. Nasdaq down volume h

Big-Tech’s PerformanceMacro Headlines This Week:Core inflation re-accelerated but with nuanceUS October core PCE rose 2.8% y/y – still above the Fed’s 2% target – yet the month-on-month pace eased. Services inflation, driven partly by surging portfolio-management fees tied to earlier equity gains, was the key driver.Fed policy path remains the biggest wildcardThe US economy shows resilience alongside hidden cracks. Markets are increasingly focused on the $6.7 tn of Treasuries maturing in 2025–2026 (≈25% of the outstanding marketable debt). Combined with potential expansionary fiscal policy under a second Trump administration, deficit concerns are rising. CICC estimates suggest meaningful deficit reduction will be difficult in a “Trump 2.0” scenario. Any shift in Treasury issuance mix could

The coming end-of-year is shaping — and the policy moves by the Federal Reserve (Fed) will have important implications for investors. In this article I would like to share how we see it, given what is known now — and what investors might consider doing over the final month of 2025 and early 2026. What the Fed’s move means (ending QT + reinvesting into T-bills) The Fed has announced that starting December 1, it will stop shrinking its balance sheet (i.e. end Quantitative Tightening, QT). Instead of letting assets (Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, MBS) roll off without replacement, the Fed will reinvest maturing MBS proceeds into short-term Treasury bills (T-bills). Mechanically, that means less downward pressure on liquidity / bank reserves. In effect, money-market liquidity shoul

Trend Insights:It is still too early to turn fully bullish on U.S. equities; the main strategic focus should be on trading a potential second bottom rather than rushing to deploy all capital. The current market is shifting from a one-way rally driven by expectations of monetary easing toward a choppier regime in which investors are repricing the timing of rate cuts, the AI bubble, and credit spreads. Over the medium term, U.S. stocks still have a good chance of delivering a “Santa rally,” but near-term risks have not been cleared, and the necessary conditions for a durable reversal are only gradually falling into place, so the time for an all-out long stance has not yet arrived.December rate cut not locked inAt the moment, the probability of a December rate cut implied by Fed funds futures

Two weeks ago, we discussed that WTI crude oil was trading within a range-bound market, making it suitable for selling weekly WTI put options below the prior low of $55 or holding a short WTI futures position combined with selling weekly put options to construct a covered put strategy for this environment. Investors without access to futures or options can consider energy or crude oil ETFs as an alternative.Bearish Crude Reports Trigger a Sharp Selloff: How to Use Options to Trade a Choppy Market？Since then, WTI crude oil has continued to oscillate and weaken, but it has not yet broken below the $55 level, confirming the effectiveness of the previous strategy. Recently, the price volatility has increased, and WTI crude

Last night should have been a celebration — $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ blew past expectations and jobs data looked perfect, sending $S&P 500(.SPX)$ up 1.9% at the open. The party lasted an hour. By the close the market collapsed. The S&P plunged from its high and wiped out more than $2 trillion in market value. Nvidia swung from +5% to -3%. Bitcoin fell through $90,000. Market expectations suggest the drawdown of BTC may not be over.What’s striking is that bitcoin’s plunge began before the U.S. equity sell-off — risk appetite appears to have cracked first in crypto, then spilled into stocks. Fear spiked: the VIX jumped above 26 and markets slid straight into panic mode. PCR lifts but doesn’t reach April level

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ Traders are carving up the tape like a holiday turkey – the S&P 500's clawing back from a brutal 2% November nosedive, its ugliest monthly scar since March, amid volatility that's got hearts racing faster than Black Friday shoppers. Citi's wealth gurus are dropping truth bombs, spotting "some room" for the bull to charge amid record inflows from fat-wallet clients pouring $37B+ into equities this year alone. Last Friday's Fed frenzy flipped rate-cut odds to 78%, sparking a green close that erased weekly reds. But here's the platter: Will Thanksgiving week ignite a "mindless" rally, busting the 4-year pattern of holiday humps? With QT slamming shut in December, unleashing liquidity like confetti, is the year's dip toast? Div

$Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF(MAGS)$ 🔥📊🚀 The Magnificent 7 Are Repricing the Market. One Name Has Already Taken Control of 2025 🚀📊🔥 📈 The Macro Picture Behind the Index Rebound The leadership break inside the Magnificent 7 has accelerated. Combined Q3 revenue reached $588.7B, up from $278.3B in Q3 2020, yet performance dispersion is now extreme. Alphabet leads 2025 at 54.7%. Nvidia follows at 38.9%. Microsoft is at 15.6%. Apple at 7.2%. Amazon at 1.5%. Meta at 0.8%. Tesla flat. The past three months have moved faster; Alphabet is up roughly 45%, Meta is down more than 21%, Nvidia is marginally positive, and Amazon, Microsoft,

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ Hold onto your portfolios, traders – the S&P 500 just clawed back over $1 trillion in market cap in a blistering rebound, flipping a brutal November nosedive into a potential game-changer. After tanking nearly 4.1% month-to-date amid spiking volatility that pushed the VIX to a hair-raising 28.27 peak, the index roared higher last week, adding roughly $800 billion in a single session on Friday alone. But is this the dawn of a "mindless" rally fueled by shifting rate cut bets and the Fed's QT wind-down, or a classic dead cat bounce luring bulls into complacency? With Citi's wealth wizards spotting "some room" for upside amid record client inflows, and Fed whispers teasing a December pivot, Wall Street's pulse is racing. Let's

The recent green market session could be the start of a broader rally — or it might be just a short-lived rebound (often called a “dead cat bounce”). In this article I would like to share the breakdown of how I would think about it + how investors might position themselves, with the caveat that no one has a crystal ball. Why a Broad Market Rally Could Be Underway Here are some of the arguments supporting a more sustained climb: Some major firms are pointing to improving fundamentals. For example, Morgan Stanley sees a “rolling recovery” in earnings, aided by factors like a weaker dollar, easier comparisons, and potential central bank policy easing. Historically, when the breadth of advancing stocks improves (i.e., many stocks participate, not just a few megacaps), it supports the idea of a