CPI Hits New Low! Rate Cut in June? Will Rally Continue Tonight?

In March, the headline CPI rose by 2.4% year-on-year, below the expected 2.6%. This marks a significant decline from the previous figure of 2.8%, hitting a six-month low. Core CPI came in at 2.8%, also lower than the expected 3%. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market sees a 63% probability of a rate cut in June. ------------- Will June rate cut expectation push the market higher? How do you view March CPI: a sign of possible recession or good news for rate cut?

avatarAN88
04-11
Yes rate cut in jun. 
avatarBG68
04-10
$S&P 500(.SPX)$   Beware the see-saw only for a show. Do not be fooled.
No will not . things are not done with . USA is just buying time and by pausing just helping ownself to have a breather for ownself , not others ! So this news is not really win win for all . 
avatarLumD
04-10
Wow this ie really good news time to buy buy buy! Maga!
avatarKKLEE
04-10
The market is holding its breath as another Consumer Price Index (CPI) report approaches. For months, inflation has been the key driver of market sentiment — and with the Federal Reserve’s next move hanging in the balance, every CPI reading feels like a make-or-break moment. A Soft CPI Would Be a Game Changer Investors are hoping for a "Goldilocks" CPI — not too hot, not too cold. A softer-than-expected reading could signal that inflation is cooling faster than anticipated, giving the Fed more breathing room to consider cutting interest rates. That would be music to Wall Street’s ears. Stocks have rallied before on similar data, and a repeat performance could help reverse some of the recent market shakiness. Why This CPI Matters Even More We’re in a unique moment. Growth is slowing just en
So you miss the opportunity to buy cheap stock and asking ppl not to go in high hoping it will drop to your advantage and purchase ?
avatarAN88
04-09
Yes more rate cut to reduce inflation 

SPX 's ATR is now greater than the peak of March 2020 Covid crisis

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ ‘s Average True Range (ATR) is now greater than the peak of March 2020 Covid crisis. The Average True Range (ATR) is a technical analysis indicator that measures market volatility by decomposing the entire range of an asset price for that period. It's based on the highest high, lowest low, and previous close.This, this is not good, HOWEVER, this has no ability to prove sustainable. This is how markets force THE END! $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2506(ESmain)$ , $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ , $iShares MSCI China A ETF(CNYA)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$
SPX 's ATR is now greater than the peak of March 2020 Covid crisis

It's still dead cat bounce

Don't All in.After the tariffs landed, the U.S. stock market is a little bit back to the soul of the meaning of fluctuations, a lot of people began to get excited, think the opportunity to come.But I'll be honest, don't get too excited, now this wave of rebound, more like a technical repair, not a trend reversal, at best, is a "dead cat jump".Simply put, the fundamentals did not keep up.The S&P 500 earnings per share estimate (EPS) for the coming year has been cut by Wall Street from +14.1% at the beginning of the year to +10.5%.That's not the worst of it, if U.S. GDP does fall between 0 and 1% as many now expect, then EPS will have to continue to be chopped to less than 5% to be reasonable, and right now the market isn't even reflecting that pessimism.Looking more closely at the secto
It's still dead cat bounce
Why Inflation No Longer Drives Interest Rate Cuts—It’s About Tariffs Now For years, whenever the economy seemed too slow or prices were rising too fast, central banks—like the U.S. Federal Reserve—adjusted interest rates to keep things in balance. This system worked well when inflation was mostly caused by people spending too much or too little. But today, a new player has entered the scene: tariffs. And they’re changing the rules. The Old Way: Watching Inflation Like a Hawk Interest rates are kind of like the economy’s gas pedal or brake. When inflation (the general rise in prices) was low, central banks would cut rates to make borrowing cheaper, which encouraged people and businesses to spend more. When inflation was high, they’d raise rates to cool things down. This worked well when inf

Tariff is not even remotely feasible in US

Has it ever occurred to you that if you suddenly introduce sudden tariffs that vary greatly from country to country, you will face multiple practical obstacles at the customs operational level?Feedback from the current point of view, the actual possibility of landing almost 0, including several aspects:Technical bottleneck: classification identification and physical limitations of origin verificationComplexity of commodity classificationThe difference in duty rates between medical device parts and automotive parts may be as high as 30%, but it is difficult for the existing customs system to achieve accurate identification.For example, mixed-function electromechanical products (e.g., medical device housings containing sensors) may involve multiple tax code classifications at the same time,
Tariff is not even remotely feasible in US
avatarJC888
04-07

US Market: CPI fuels More Sell-Off this Week ?

With US Non-farm payroll out last Fri, 04 Apr 2025, there will not be any economic reports in early part of the week of 07 Apr 2025. Focus on jobs (employment reports) will turn to inflation from mid-week onwards. Investors should (at least) take a look at the latest inflation report because it’s the first after the initial 25% tariffs imposed on Mexico, Canada and China (20%). Economic Reports. Below are US economic reports that will be out this week. Wed, 09 Apr 2025. US Fed’s FOMC minutes of meeting for March 2025. Not an economic report (per se) but it provides insight to FOMC sentiments towards inflation control, in light of global tariffs rollout. Thu, 10 Apr 2025. Consumer price index (CPI) for March 2025. US weekly jobless claims. Fri, 11 Apr 2025. US Producer price index (PPI) for
US Market: CPI fuels More Sell-Off this Week ?

Market Insights (7–11 April): SPX. Tends to Rebound After Sharp Two-Day Sell-Offs

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ plunged 9.05% and 9.75% respectively last week, due to the sweeping U.S. tariffs imposed.Major market movers included $Apple(AAPL)$ (-13.6%), $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ (-14%), $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ (-11%), $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ (-11.3%), $Microsoft(MSFT)$ (-5%), $Broadcom(AVGO)$ (-13.5%), UnitedHealth (+1.8%), $TJX Companies(TJX)$ (+3.3%),
Market Insights (7–11 April): SPX. Tends to Rebound After Sharp Two-Day Sell-Offs

Meow Meow! Is This a Base or a dying Cat Resuscitated Alive?

Inflation Cools to 2.8%: Good News for Stocks $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$  $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$  $Apple(AAPL)$  US stocks staged a modest rebound today, but it wasn’t exactly a smooth ride. We’re still seeing that familiar pattern from the past few days: a brief mid-session pop followed by a fade. The big story this morning was the pre-market release of the February CPI data, which came in milder than we anticipated yesterday. Even better, it undershot expectations across the board, giving investors a pleasant surprise. Year-over-year, the CPI slowed to 2.8%, below the 2.9% Wall Street expected and down from January’s 3%. Month-over-month, it ticked up jus
Meow Meow! Is This a Base or a dying Cat Resuscitated Alive?

Adobe Q1 Beats Expectations, But AI Monetization Remains Unproven!

$Adobe(ADBE)$ outperformed in Q1 of FY2025, but guidance was weaker and AI product monetization capabilities will have a validation window after Summit.Performance and Market FeedbackKey financial indicators exceeded expectations across the boardOperating Income: $5.71B (+11%YoY), beating market expectation of $5.66B; Adjusted EPS: $5.08 (+13%YoY), higher than expectation of $4.97Operating cash flow: $2.48B (+18%YoY), supporting 7M share repurchaseRemaining Performance Obligations (RPO): $19.69BSolid growth in core businessesDigital Media Revenue: +11% YoY, with Creative Cloud subscription growth acceleratingDigital Experience Revenue: +10% YoY, with increased penetration of enterprise-side AI solutionsMarket reaction and valuation gameShares fell
Adobe Q1 Beats Expectations, But AI Monetization Remains Unproven!
$ProShares UltraPro QQQ(TQQQ)$ Finally a rebound saving my bullish positions…
CPI lower than expecte. Stocks don't go down in a straight line. There will be many dead cat bounces or bear market rallies on the way to the bottom.
There is a strong argument that the slower month-on-month CPI increase is due to weak consumer demand. Look at the breakdown of the categories.Airline fares and gasoline prices dropped by 4.0% and 1.0% respectively. This suggests weaker consumer demand for travel.New vehicle prices declined by 0.1%. This indicates consumers are holding back on large discretionary purchases. This also aligns with the consumer confidence index from a couple of weeks back which highlighted a drop in sentiment on large purchases in the near future by consumersOverall the CPI and core CPI numbers reinforce my opinion that the economy is not doing well. Consumers are pulling back and businesses do not feel confident raising prices any more. This will reflect in the next set of readings - both inflation and labor

Inflation Cools: February CPI Lower Than Expected, Market Surges!

 Inflation came in lower than expected, and the index made a big rebound! Prepare for the rally! $AppLovin Corporation(APP)$  $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$  $Reddit(RDDT)$  $Robinhood(HOOD)$  $MicroStrategy(MSTR)$  February CPI rose 0.2% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, also increased 0.2% monthly and 3.1% annually—both figures came in below market expectations. Although housing costs rose 4.2% over the past year, this was the smallest 12-month increase since December 2
Inflation Cools: February CPI Lower Than Expected, Market Surges!

Markets Struggle Amid Policy Uncertainty and Softening Data

Markets attempted three separate rallies today, but each one failed, leaving major indexes in the red once again: 🔻 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ : -0.8% (briefly entered correction territory) 🔻 $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ : -0.2% (-9.3% from record highs) 🔻 Dow Jones: -478 points (-1.1%). $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF(MGK)$ $PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES INC(0A7R.UK)$ Stocks While some choppiness is expected during new administrations, this level of policy-driven volatility is unprecedented, particularly with the rapid-fire p
Markets Struggle Amid Policy Uncertainty and Softening Data
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