4 Stocks Where Fundamentals Are Telling a Different Story 📊 1. $Uber(UBER)$ — Bookings Still Matter Most For Uber, gross bookings remain one of the most important metrics to watch. So far, there's little evidence that Waymo is disrupting Uber's core business. The key question isn't whether autonomous driving will change mobility — it will. The question is whether Uber's marketplace can continue growing before that disruption becomes meaningful. For now, the bookings data is still telling a relatively strong story. 🚗 2. $Zeta Global Holdings Corp.(ZETA)$ — Growth Isn't the Question Zeta is clearly out-growing many of its competitors. That's not really the debate anymore. The bigger question is: How much

It’s 13-F season, which means we’re getting position disclosures from hedge funds and asset managers as of the end of the second quarter. This isn’t something I usually follow, but this quarter I think it’s especially interesting. Not because there are some brilliant moves, but because everyone is making the same trade. They’re all going long the AI buildout in one form or another. Some are buying chip companies, others are buying chip equipment, and some are playing energy, but it’s all the same trade. And I find that fascinating because it’s a consensus trade that everyone thinks will work. More on that in a moment. Hedge Funds Making the Same Bet One of the things I always find interesting in the public discourse about stocks is how much everyone is just talking their book. And this qua

Asymmetric Investing isn’t about being right about every stock; it’s about being VERY right when I do find a winner. I’m swinging for 10-run homeruns (yes, I know those don’t exist), not for a high batting average. That philosophy can lead to high variability in returns. If I get a trend wrong or the market is focused elsewhere (ahem, AI in 2026), I can underperform for a long period of time, even if I’m beating the market long-term. But one winner can also make up for a lot of mistakes. In 2024, that was $Spotify Technology S.A.(SPOT)$ ( ▲ 2.93% ). In 2025, it was $Robinhood(HOOD)$ ( ▼ 3.83% ). This year, there haven’t been any big outperformers. Until now. $Zeta Gl

The market doesn't like seeing revenue growth slow, but I think the bigger question is what $On Holding AG(ONON)$ is giving up to protect profitability. Management appears willing to accept some moderation in growth rather than sacrifice margins just to keep the top line moving faster. That tradeoff could become increasingly important over the long term. If margins continue to expand, the earnings power of the business can keep improving even if revenue growth settles at a lower rate. At around 22x trailing earnings, the valuation also looks much more interesting if margin expansion continues to translate into stronger EPS growth. What looks expensive on today's numbers can look very different a few years from now if the company keeps improving it

Don’t be fooled by the market’s reaction; $Uber(UBER)$ ( ▲ 3.36% ) had an outstanding second quarter. Monthly active customers jumped 16%, trips were up 18%, and gross bookings were up 22%. So, if trips and bookings were so strong, why was revenue only up 12.2% (11% on a constant currency basis)? And is that what the market was disappointed by? Part of the answer lies in a contra-revenue charge in the U.K. that I’ll explain below. What’s more important for long-term investors is the operating profit line, which continues to improve. Or you could look at operating and free cash flow, which are both trending higher. By the way, Uber trades for just 14x free cash flow at this point. And despite all of this improvement in operations, Uber’s stock trad

This is the latest allocation of $500 into a personal portfolio of stocks with 10x potential over the next decade. I’ll allocate from the “Asymmetric Universe” of stocks. Today, that universe has 25 stocks that I’ve covered in spotlight articles, and the universe will grow in time. Not all stocks covered will receive an investment, and allocations may be made to the same stock multiple times. Here are the rules of allocation. Invest $500 in total new capital each month. If the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ or $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ is 20% below its all-time high, this allocation will increase to $1,000 monthly. If the S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite is down 30%, I’ll add $1,500, and so on. The Universe of Asymmetric Stoc

No investor has epitomized 2026 like Leopold Aschenbrenner. Through June, his $48 billion (at the time) hedge fund, Situational Awareness, was up 439% after fees, an incredible run by any measure. This morning, Situational Awareness blew up. What happened and what can we learn about leverage, buying dips, and investing today? That’s what I’m going to dig through today. Blowing Up In 2009, I was in MBA school and interned for a hedge fund in the Minneapolis area that did a little bit of everything. There was market making, high-frequency trading, options positions, and even leveraged bets on commodities. It was a whirlwind of a learning experience, and at the end, I sat down with the owner, who had been in hedge funds for ~30 years. We talked for over an hour, but one thing stuck out to me:

One of the most profitable companies in the world went free cash flow negative in the second quarter, and investors are worried. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ ( ▲ 2.34% ) shares are down 20% from their high in May, and there’s good reason to ask some serious questions. No, the market isn’t worried about where Alphabet is going to get the $200+ billion it’ll spend on capex this year or the (maybe) $300 billion it’ll spend next year. There’s a great cash flow business to fund most of that, and debt can fill the rest of the gap. The market is worried that the return on Alphabet’s spending and the spending of every hyperscaler and neocloud will have low or no return at all. ~$1 trillion in spending this year, and even more next year, needs to generate a return. As

From biotech catalysts and consumer brand momentum to EV valuation debates, these three stocks highlight how investors are focusing on very different opportunities—and risks—across today's market. 1. $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ BPC-157 isn’t a done deal but it’s getting close. This could be another catalyst for $HIMS, the biggest position in the Asymmetric Portfolio. 2. $On Holding AG(ONON)$ I don’t know what these are but I kind of want them. 3. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ What multiple would you put on a company growing revenue at 0.5% annually with declining margins? Does 12x sales and 295x earnings sound fair?

$Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ Google Cloud results are incredible, but the rest of the revenue was pretty ho-hum. Alphabet going negative FCF seems like a turning point in this buildout. I don't know if it's good or bad, but if they're willing to go into debt to win... I wouldn't want to be a competitor. 82% growth for Google Cloud is crazy, but we have crossed the critical FCF going negative. Seems like something. PS: What are your weaknesses as an investor? Create constraints around them. I am terrible at timing the market when I buy and my biggest mistake is selling a great company early. Solution: 1. Buy once per month 2. Default to "never sell" Keep it simple. Sentiment is correlated with a sto

Buybacks are one of the most underappreciated ways companies can generate value for shareholders. A well-executed buyback can rapidly reduce the denominator in earnings per share, but the timing and pace of the buyback are important. Most buybacks are done when stock prices are high and business is good. Effective buybacks are executed when valuations are low and before the market “re-rates” the stock (i.e., increases the multiple). If that’s when the buyback is done, it can be rocket fuel for a stock. Here are 4 stocks I own that need to announce large buybacks today, ahead of potential turnarounds in their businesses. $Lyft, Inc.(LYFT)$ ( ▼ 0.58% ) $Duolingo, Inc.(DUOL)$ ( ▲ 0.03% )

The key question for all three: can earnings growth drive future upside while valuations expand? $GOOG, $DUOL, and $NFLX offer three different answers. 1. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ Analysts are expecting Alphabet's operating cash flow to nearly double over the next 2.5 years. 2. $Duolingo, Inc.(DUOL)$ Everyone has to learn Chinese if Kimi takes over or what? 3. $Netflix(NFLX)$ $NFLX was $86 when I posted this. Getting closer to a buy after this drop. At some point, Netflix will be an amazing buy. But at 38x FCF, I don't think a company growing revenue in the mid-teens is in "no-brainer" territory yet. PS： Investing Over-Simplified If you can explain how the stocks you own

$Uber(UBER)$ is expanding its business again, this time into more markets for delivery with the acquisition of Delivery Hero. From Uber: Uber Technologies, Inc. (NYSE: UBER) has entered into a business combination agreement with Delivery Hero, extending the world’s largest mobility and delivery platform to a total of 99 markets, with combined pro-forma Gross Bookings of $236 billion in 2025. Under the terms of the voluntary takeover offer, Uber will offer Delivery Hero shareholders cash consideration of €41.50 per share (the “Offer Price”), representing an Equity Value1 of $14.8 billion (implied for 100% of the company), or $13.7 billion adjusted for Uber’s prior stake purchases. Delivery Hero has entered into a separate agreement with SSW Partner