If Google $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ Cloud can only grow at 30% per year, it will only be a $600 billion business with maybe $120 billion in operating income a decade from now.Just a garbage business. Please sell this stock...so I can buy more.ImageGOOG is the one hyperscaler increasing capex significantly from Q4 2024 run rate thru 2025. What if GOOG has to increase capex faster than other hyper scalers because it has the best AI applications AND the best distribution (search, Android, YouTube, Chrome, Maps, etc)? A plausible theory.

Investing Over-SimplifiedIf you can explain how the stocks you own will grow earnings AND benefit from multiple expansion you are 5 steps ahead of most investors. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $DJIA(.DJI)$ $GLOBAL X DOW 30® COVERED CALL ETF(DJIA)$ ImageYou won't beat the market if no one thinks you're a little crazy.90% of beating the market is really just:Buy great companiesDoing nothing for YEARSProfitIt's harder than it looks, but the formula is simple.https://twitter.com/Travi

$Walt Disney(DIS)$ hasn’t been the most popular stock over the past year and that’s understandable for a lot of reasons. Films have been disappointing, cable TV is dying, and the streaming business is losing money like crazy.But in the August 2023 spotlight of Disney, I laid out how the company could be a leader in streaming everything from proprietary IP to sports with an experiences business attached.Q1 2024 financial results showed Bob Iger is not only taking Disney in that direction, but he may be burning some bridges along the way.First Things FirstAt a high level, the quarter was about treading water on the top line and cost cuts on the bottom line. The cuts were deeper than expected and that’s why the market reacted positively to the quarter

The stock market is weird.You can do a great analysis. Be correct about your thesis. And sometimes, the stock doesn’t react for months or even years.Eventually, fundamentals win, but short-term emotions and speculation drive the market.I’m seeing this dynamic play out in $ON Semiconductor(ON)$ . The company hasn’t released so much as a press release since earnings came out on August 13, 2024, and yet the stock is up 22.1% in that time. The market’s sentiment changed, but why?The Same StoryNothing about On Holding has changed in the past month.Nothing has changed in the past year.The company just keeps delivering steady growth quarter after quarter.Why is the stock up?I could spin a tale to tell you why shares are moving. Maybe it was

1. $Spotify Technology S.A.(SPOT)$ The premium business (green) gets most of the attention, but the upside for Spotify is advertising (blue).Today's Creative Lab along with “Quick Audio” to create scripts & voiceovers using generative AI is huge.Been talking about this for a year and it's finally here!Image2. $Walt Disney(DIS)$ Took the kids to Inside Out 2 today. I don’t want to say “Disney is back!” But it was a solid movie with some big laughs and just enough emotion. Not as good as Inside Out 1 or Onward, but much better than Luca, Soul, Elemental, and Turning Red.https://x.com/TravisHoium/status/1801663282018697591

Billionaire David Tepper's Portfolio UpdateBack buying $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ but selling most chip and big tech stocks. Also really likes ride-sharing.🤔Buying: $Lyft, Inc.(LYFT)$ $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ $JD.com(JD)$ $Uber(UBER)$ Selling: $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Intel(INTC)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $Qualcomm(QCOM)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ Image PS: Sentiment is correlated with a st

You probably don't follow me for crypto takes and I don't post about crypto often anymore, so I'll keep this short. This is the one asymmetric opportunity I'm in.1. The team has been building the game for years through the bear.2. Economics and gameplay are innovative and only possible on the blockchain.3. Multi-chain and crypto isn't required to play, opening up the market.4. The assets seem extremely undervalued with YAKU at a ~$4 million market cap.Enough said.

Since June 19, 2024, $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ stock is down 13.1%. Coincidence?Sentiment is correlated with a stock's price.If you want to beat the market, buy great companies when the sentiment around them is bad."Do as I say, not as I do." - probably Jensen Huang this morningImageWhat if you already had more money than you could possibly spend and you could easily borrow against your ~$100 billion stake? It’s just something to note. Elon sold $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ in late 2022 as well. Probably a coincidence demand and margins dropped shortly thereafter…https://x.com/TravisHoium/status/1805258288348422245

1. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Robotaxis will generate 8-10 Trillion in revenues in 2030, half of which will go to platforms like Tesla says Cathie WoodCan we stop giving this person air time. In the U.S. people drive ~3.2 trillion miles per year. At $2.50 per mile (about the cost of Uber) you get to “$8-10 trillion”. Every mile in robotaxis that don’t yet exist? You think that’s happening in 6 years? 🤦2. $Roku Inc(ROKU)$ I want to like Roku's TV OS position, but if streaming consolidates to two major players (Netflix and Disney) what power does Roku have?Image3. $Zillow(Z)$ Everything you need to know about Zillow stock and its $1 trillion potential.4.

1. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ 971% of NVIDIA's gains over the past decade has been from multiple expansion. Margin compression alone could cause a ~90% drop in the stock. Something to think about.Image2. $General Motors(GM)$ GM crushing the competition in the auto business right now. EVs and SUVs all growing and buybacks at a 5 P/E fueling EPS growth.ImageThe stock market thinks short-term. Your biggest advantage is thinking long-term.The current stock market hates positive FCF companies that are using cash to back stock at low P/E multiples.You can guess where I'm finding opportunities.Tech Stocks 1999: This time is different.2000: It wasn't different.Housing 2007: This time is different.2008: It wasn't different.3D P

2023 isn’t over yet, so it’s not yet time to review the Asymmetric Portfolio’s performance quite yet.But as I start to look at the index comparisons with a week to go, they’re a little difficult to wrap your head around. The Asymmetric Portfolio started on May 1, 2023, and since then the portfolio is up 9.76% compared to an 18.35% total return for the S&P 500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ . Yikes!Compare it to the $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ (see above) and the comparison is even worse.But are the S&P 500 or Nasadaq 100 the best comparisons?Maybe not given what a weird year 2023 was.2023 has been marked by a massive divergence between the Magnificent 7 and the Modest 493. If you aren’t familiar with the market’s lates