Travis Hoium
Travis Hoium
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$HIMS Eyes Multi-Billion-Dollar Peptide Boom as 19 Key Compounds Gain Traction

Peptides could be a new multi-billion-dollar market for companies like Hims & Hers $HIMS. What are these peptides, and what do they do? Here's what you need to know about all 19 peptides in question today, 14 of which may soon be legal to compound (according to RFK) 👇 1. BPC-157 Note: These infographics are made by Gemini and are for informational purposes only. 2. Thymosin Alpha-1 (Ta1) 3. Thymosin Beta-4 Fragment (TB-500) 4. AOD-9604 5. CJC-1295 6. Ipamorelin Acetate 7. Selank Acetate (TP-7) 8. Semax 9. GHK-Cu (Copper Peptide) 10. GHRP-2 11. GHRP-6 12. Epitalon 13. KPV 14. Kisspeptin-10 15. Melanotan II 16. MOTS-c 17. PEG-MGF (Pegylated Mechano Growth Factor) 18. Emideltide (DSIP - Delta Sleep-Inducing Peptide) 19. Cathelicidin LL-37 For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and
$HIMS Eyes Multi-Billion-Dollar Peptide Boom as 19 Key Compounds Gain Traction
avatarTravis Hoium
03-02 14:04

There's a good reason some stocks are down big in 2026

Why have SaaS and growth stocks taken it on the chin in 2026 while boring businesses like Walmart and Coca-Cola rise? It’s all about math. I’m not going to make you do math today, but I do want to show why the math behind analyst models is driving the market to strange places so far this year. Terminal Value Explained In Re-Rating the Stock Market, I wrote about how changing expectations for future free cash flow can cause investors to value stocks differently. What that article missed was the tangible calculations behind how investors think about valuing companies…at least on an academic level. In theory, stocks are valued based on the present value of all future free cash flows. That’s an easy statement to make, but it’s fraught with assumptions that I generally think are BS because we c
There's a good reason some stocks are down big in 2026
avatarTravis Hoium
03-01 20:02

FIGS, TSLA, NFLX, WBD, DNKGF Diverging Paths In Growth And Profitability

This group reflects a market that is sharply distinguishing between disciplined execution and fragile narratives. FIGS, Inc. has rewarded patience with a 130% gain, while Tesla, Inc. continues to navigate uneven growth momentum. Netflix, Inc. strengthened its strategic flexibility by avoiding a leveraged deal with Warner Bros. Discovery, preserving balance sheet health. Meanwhile, DraftKings Inc. demonstrates that scale and revenue growth alone do not ensure sustainable profitability. 1. $FIGS, Inc.(FIGS)$ Sometimes, a thesis takes a while to play out. Figs is now up 130% in the Asymmetric Portfolio. That's a surprise to me too! 2. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ TSLA growth has been negative 4 of the last 8 quarter
FIGS, TSLA, NFLX, WBD, DNKGF Diverging Paths In Growth And Profitability

What If Nothing Ever Happens $HIMS $DUOL $EOSE $PLUG

As humans, we have a tendency to imagine a world that doesn’t yet exist and simplify how easy it will be to get to this imaginary place. In reality, change happens slowly on a day-to-day basis. Yes, a lot has changed in the last few decades, but in many ways, nothing has changed at all. In 1995, Bill Gates became the richest man in the world, a title he’s within striking distance of holding today. In the 1940s, $Coca-Cola(KO)$ became a consumer staple drink, a place it still holds today. $Nike(NKE)$ was the “IT brand” when I was a kid, and 40 years later, Jordan (a Nike creation and brand) is the “IT brand” for my son. $General Motors(GM)$ and
What If Nothing Ever Happens $HIMS $DUOL $EOSE $PLUG

DUOL 21% Down but Strong Cash Backing and ONON Pre-Report Rally Potential

Duolingo trades near $4.6B market cap with $1.1B cash, giving ~12x adjusted EBITDA, highlighting long-term growth potential despite high SBC spend. On Holding faces currency headwinds ahead of its earnings report but remains a top brand in the portfolio for compounding returns. 1. $Duolingo, Inc.(DUOL)$ Duolingo $DUOL has $1.1 billion in cash and if the ~21% drop holds would trade for about a $4.6 billion market cap. That's an enterprise value of $3.5 billion, or 12x adjusted EBITDA. This is still a growth company sacrificing short-term profitability for long-term growth! My biggest problem right now is spending 15% of revenue on SBC. 2. $On Holding AG(ONON)$ My #2 holding in the Asymmetric Portfolio repo
DUOL 21% Down but Strong Cash Backing and ONON Pre-Report Rally Potential

Tech Doomed, Pharma Boomed? $AAPL$ $NVDA$ $LLY$ $JNJ$ $NVO$

We're selling consumer spending and credit risk but buying big pharma because people with no money are going to buy GLP-3s? Ohh, and YAY Walmart $Wal-Mart(WMT)$ ! And energy and telecom are up because something, something people are going to drive their cars in default to jobs they don't have. BTW, the AI disrupting the economy is BS and semiconductor stocks are all doomed. But seriously, more drugs! Did I make sense of today's market? $Apple(AAPL)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Broadcom(AVGO)$
Tech Doomed, Pharma Boomed? $AAPL$ $NVDA$ $LLY$ $JNJ$ $NVO$

Owning Demand Is the Edge NFLX

I didn't understand $Netflix(NFLX)$ 10 years ago, but I learned lessons from that mistake. 1. Users > Profits: In a digital business, it's critical to reach scale. Profits don't matter on the path to scale. 2. Delay Taking Price: Margins are low? Who cares! See #1. 3. Suppliers eventually have to bend the knee to the one who owns demand. You don't say, "I'm going to watch Sony's K-Pop tonight." You say, "I'm going to watch Netflix." Demand matters above all else. Owning the customer is the ultimate goal. The companies we CHOOSE to interact with are the ultimate winners on the market. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as
Owning Demand Is the Edge NFLX

The Tariff Snip Snap & The K-Shaped Economy

In April 2025, President Trump announced sweeping tariffs that sent the market into a tailspin. Companies from apparel to automotive reconfigured their supply chains in order to adjust to a seemingly constant flow of tariff changes day after day. And on Friday, most of those tariffs were deemed illegal by the Supreme Court. We don’t know if consumers, manufacturers, importers, retailers, or someone else will get the ~$175 billion in tariffs already paid back, but there’s at least some resolution to last year’s biggest wild card. While the Supreme Court ruled the president can’t put specific tariffs on countries willy-nilly, he can legally put a blanket tariff of up to 15% on all imports (Congress gave that power), which is exactly what President Trump has done. For now, that seems to be wh
The Tariff Snip Snap & The K-Shaped Economy

OpenAI's $100 Billion, AI Skepticism, and Why Incentives Matter

OpenAI is reportedly finalizing a $100 billion funding round that includes $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $Softbank Group Corp(SFTBY)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$. The deal will push OpenAI’s valuation to $850 billion, which would make it the 12th most valuable company publicly traded in the U.S., and funding is now over $160 billion. Every time I hear about one of these big funding rounds, it makes me nervous because the foundation on which these valuations are being built is tenuous, at best. And still, the funding and spending on AI is driving everything from semiconductor stocks to HVAC, energy, and materials stocks higher
OpenAI's $100 Billion, AI Skepticism, and Why Incentives Matter

AI Disruption Has Finally Reached Silicon Valley and Wall Street

Is Something Big Really Happening? Why (I think) Silicon Valley and Wall Street are so terrified of disruption this time. Software and growth stocks are getting hammered as investors price in a high likelihood of disruption from artificial intelligence (AI) across the board. What solidified this freak-out in my mind was a viral post called Something Big Is Happening that reads like “my programming job is being replaced by AI, and you’re next.” What’s the fuss all about? What’s signal and what’s noise? I think we need to take a step back and look at who is being impacted by AI today and why they’re so worried. No surprise, the fear of disruption is emanating from Silicon Valley and Wall Street. The market isn’t worried about farming jobs. Or construction jobs. Or manufacturing. Or retail. T
AI Disruption Has Finally Reached Silicon Valley and Wall Street

What Is Disney Worth Today?

Any discussion of $Walt Disney(DIS)$ ’s long-term strategy needs to start with entertainment. If the studios aren’t producing hit content, nothing else really matters for Disney. Unfortunately, Disney no longer breaks out results from studios, cable, and streaming, so we get this conglomerate look at the entertainment business overall. Within these results, we do know that cable is in decline. In fiscal 2025, linear network revenue was down 16% to $2.06 billion, and operating income dropped 21% to $391 million. There’s no indication that the decline has stopped, but it’s being overcome by growth at studios and streaming. I’ll start with studios, which include Disney Animation, Lucasfilm, Marvel, and Pixar. The box office is showing us that Disney i
What Is Disney Worth Today?

Great Companies, Volatile Stocks | AMZN, AAPL, NVDA, NFLX, SOFI, UBER, GOOGL

No matter the company, stock values don’t go up in a straight line. They’re volatile depending on the market’s mood, comments on conference calls, analyst upgrades or downgrades, and even the weather. That volatility can be maddening, but we need to keep in mind that the key is buying great companies that can grow for a long time and just hang on for the ride. For example… 1. $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ Amazon’s growth chart looks like a steady climb up and to the right. And in many ways, it was with growth rates over 20% for most of the last two decades. But the stock performance was very different. There were drawdowns (the stock price decline from its peak) of as much as 65% and it often took years to get back to previous highs. 2.
Great Companies, Volatile Stocks | AMZN, AAPL, NVDA, NFLX, SOFI, UBER, GOOGL

Disruption Meets Risk: $HIMS Takes on $NVO/$LLY, $MGM Cuts Shares

$HIMS is shaking up the pharma space, challenging $NVO’s patents in a high-stakes bet that could disrupt the weight loss market. Both $NVO and $LLY face significant downside risk if litigation goes against them, making this a fascinating clash between nimble disruptors and Big Pharma. Meanwhile, $MGM is quietly reducing its float, repurchasing 5.5% of shares in a single quarter, signaling confidence amid broader market volatility. Investors should watch legal battles and corporate capital moves alike for asymmetric opportunities. 1. $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ My gut feeling is that $HIMS is playing the ultimate disruption card. They’re pushing so hard Novo sues, which ultimately leads to Novo defending — and potentially invalidating — the
Disruption Meets Risk: $HIMS Takes on $NVO/$LLY, $MGM Cuts Shares

Google: The AI King

In 2015, Sam Altman and Elon Musk founded OpenAI in part out of fear that $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ would dominate AI if someone else didn’t get there first. When the ChatGPT moment hit in November 2022, the conventional wisdom was that Google’s moment of disruption had arrived. The company was behind in AI models, didn’t have compelling products, and was slow and unimaginative in releasing products. The criticisms were valid at the time. What Google did have was infrastructure and distribution. If it caught up on models and product, the threat could be snuffed out. The question was: Could ChatGPT become the go-to application for artificial intelligence before Google turned the search bar, Chrom
Google: The AI King

$NFLX, $NVO, $HIMS: Lessons on Demand, Scale, and Market Winners

The market favors companies that own demand and scale. $NFLX shows how dominating customer choice beats short-term profits, while $NVO faces pressure from competition and falling prices—highlighting the advantage of demand aggregators like $HIMS. 1. $Netflix(NFLX)$ I didn't understand Netflix $NFLX 10 years ago, but I learned lessons from that mistake. 1. Users > Profits: In a digital business, it's critical to reach scale. Profits don't matter on the path to scale. 2. Delay Taking Price: Margins are low? Who cares! See #1. 3. Suppliers eventually have to bend the knee to the one who owns demand. You don't say, "I'm going to watch Sony's K-Pop tonight." You say, "I'm going to watch Netflix." Demand matters above all else. Owning the customer is
$NFLX, $NVO, $HIMS: Lessons on Demand, Scale, and Market Winners

Has a Market Meltdown Begun?

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ are within shouting distance of their all-time highs, but it doesn’t feel that way for most investors. The market’s gains have been concentrated in some huge moves in semiconductor and mining-related stocks. On the other side of the market is the decline in stocks like $Salesforce.com(CRM)$ $Shopify(SHOP)$ $Spotify Technology S.A.(SPOT)$ $Robinhood(HOOD)$ that seem like rock-solid growth companies. I think there are discounts forming in certain areas of the market, although the ride will likel
Has a Market Meltdown Begun?

NFLX, TSLA, GOOG & OpenAI - Innovation and Disruption Timelines

In 1997, 20% of U.S. households had access to the internet. A dozen years later, owners of iconic newspapers like the Los Angeles Times, Chicago Tribune, Philadelphia Inquirer, and many more had filed for bankruptcy. Disruption came quickly for newspapers once publishing online became trivial. Contrast that to streaming, which has taken much longer to disrupt traditional TV and film media. $Netflix(NFLX)$ launched streaming in 2007, and 19 years later, one of the companies that should have been disrupted the most, $Warner Bros. Discovery(WBD)$ , is being acquired by Netflix itself for $83 billion. Disruption happens at different speeds in different industries, and there are good reasons why. Different indu
NFLX, TSLA, GOOG & OpenAI - Innovation and Disruption Timelines

$RIVN’s $6.6B Question Could Decide Its Fate

$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$ Two really bad news items recently related to Rivian. 1. The Trump Administration cancelling DOE loans. Rivian was approved for $6.6B to build Georgia just before Biden left office, but still doesn't have the $$$. Will it ever get it? 2. Rivian's autonomy product was well received, but $General Motors(GM)$ just announced a similar sensor and technology product launching in 2028. GM will have scale in autonomy before Rivian does, so Rivian's in-house development will once again be up against a competitor with more scale over which to spread development costs. If #1 gets cancelled, Rivian is doomed. Even if it doesn't, #2 probably means Rivian won't have much upside in autonomy
$RIVN’s $6.6B Question Could Decide Its Fate

HIMS stays solid TSLA faces profit pressure

1. $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ Volatility is the price we pay for market-beating returns. We're seeing the downside of that volatility today, but the long-term fundamental trends in revenue and margins are exactly what we want to see. 2. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ These charts are telling. 1. Tesla's operating profit is collapsing. 2. Analysts (and investors) continue to over-estimate the company's revenue growth...which is now negative. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. 🎉Cash Boost Account Now Supports
HIMS stays solid TSLA faces profit pressure

When EV Credits Vanish, GM Holds,Tesla and Rivian Don’t

$General Motors(GM)$ CEO Mary Barra is the best CEO in the auto business. This shouldn’t be a controversial statement. Strategically, operationally, and politically (important these days) she’s knocking it out of the park. Investors in $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ and $Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$ should pay attention to this detail. The elimination of regulatory credits is going to be a small tailwind for Detroit given their size, but a HUGE headwind for Tesla and Rivian because it’s 100% margin. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs.
When EV Credits Vanish, GM Holds,Tesla and Rivian Don’t

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