Tracy Ernest

    • Tracy ErnestTracy Ernest
      ·01-22 11:51
      $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ Taking TSMC as an example, its valuation of over 70 in the past was not cheap either, and now it has tripled to over 210. Is a valuation of 210 for TSMC high? With a P/E ratio of 30, SMIC's valuation is much higher than TSMC's. Can their positions be the same? Similar cases also include other leading companies like NVIDIA, Tesla, and Apple. I remember during the previous cryptocurrency mining crash, people said GPUs were doomed, but later on, NVIDIA still made a fortune. NVIDIA's market value has soared from tens of billions to the world's number one. Of course, the valuation is high, but it is likely that the increase in performance will offset the valuation. However, I would choo
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    • Tracy ErnestTracy Ernest
      ·01-22 11:50
      $Apple(AAPL)$ The profit margin gap between Xiaomi and Apple lies in two aspects: the profit from selling smartphones and the difference in internet service revenue. Particularly in internet services, which account for 26% of Apple's revenue and have a gross margin as high as 73%. In contrast, Xiaomi's internet services only make up 9% of its total revenue, but the gross margin is also as high as 74%. Xiaomi's competitive advantage is its extremely high cost-performance ratio. This business model is destined to have low profit margins on hardware (selling smartphones) and has to make up for it elsewhere. As for smart cars, I personally believe that, like smartphones, the main profit will come from internet services rather
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    • Tracy ErnestTracy Ernest
      ·01-21 14:04
      $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ Who says TSMC's silicon photonics uses a 3-nanometer process? COUPE is clearly 65 nanometers. The 3-nanometer process mentioned in the news is probably related to the packaging of a 3-nanometer GPU chiplet. Silicon photonics doesn't require such a small manufacturing process, especially when the electronic chip and the photonic chip are separate. Monolithic integration would be beneficial for the electronic chip. Currently, Global Foundry is the only one that supports a 45-nanometer integrated electro-optic silicon photonics process.
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    • Tracy ErnestTracy Ernest
      ·01-21 13:55
      $Apple(AAPL)$ Holiday spending in the U.S. in 2024 was up to $241 BILLION vs $222 BILLION in 2023. Globally holiday spending is up to $1.4 TRILLION which is a moderate increase as well. I don't know what impact this will have on earnings on January 30 but it's at positive indicator going into it.
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    • Tracy ErnestTracy Ernest
      ·01-20
      $Apple(AAPL)$ iPhone 17 series will start a 3 year IPhone upgrade super cycle. Look at an AppleStock Yearly revenue chart, you can see what happens to revenue after a major redesign is released. Appleintelligence will help the super cycle, but the hardware redesign will be the main catalyst.
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    • Tracy ErnestTracy Ernest
      ·01-20
      $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ As the only U.S. company that designs and manufactures leading-edge semiconductor technology, Intel plays a critical role in strengthening the country’s long-term economic competitiveness and national security. By working together on RAMP-C, Intel Foundry and DoD’s T&AM program accelerate the growth of advanced semiconductor manufacturing in the U.S. Moreover, Intel Foundry’s expansion of 18A fabrication is rebalancing the global supply chain with a trusted, resilient and sustainable source of the most advanced technologies for microelectronics devices.
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    • Tracy ErnestTracy Ernest
      ·01-16
      $Apple(AAPL)$ i cannot believe how tilted to negative the media is vs apple. Never seen anything like it...Are they starving for ratings ? Getting paid from those who need it, dont know why , but what I do know is they are a great company with great products and services, with a Golden User base !! An the stores are always packed
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    • Tracy ErnestTracy Ernest
      ·01-16
      $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ My conservative prediction for tomorrow is 220s however depending on what they say about the rest of 2025 I wouldn’t be shocked if this reaches 250. I’m glad we got over inflation fears before earnings, at least for now.
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    • Tracy ErnestTracy Ernest
      ·01-15
      $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ The United States has gone through great efforts, and finally, 4nm production has begun domestically. "TSMC previously estimated that its first wafer factory in Arizona would begin mass production in the first half of 2025, and the second wafer factory would produce the most advanced 2nm chips in 2028." Once domestic EUV technology emerges, China can quickly advance to 2nm, essentially on par with the United States. In terms of manufacturing, the United States should not expect to create a significant gap anytime soon.
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    • Tracy ErnestTracy Ernest
      ·01-15
      $Apple(AAPL)$ The most crucial aspect of a good business is uniqueness, even within a niche industry. Apple was undoubtedly unique many years ago. Now, it might only be unique to its long-time users due to the familiarity with the system and ecosystem. However, when it comes to simply being a good phone, Apple is by no means unique. In fact, in many aspects, it doesn't necessarily offer superior features compared to others, and in some areas, it may even be considered inferior.
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