To The Moon

The Polycrisis: How Today’s Problems Connect The risks we share in late 2026 — and why no single cause explains them. In brief What’s happening. Past downturns had one main cause. In late 2026, energy, food, household finances, lending and stocks are under pressure together. Problems in one area make the others worse. Why it matters. These systems depend on each other and have little spare capacity or reserves. They are less able to absorb setbacks, so problems spread quickly. What to check. Review your cash reserves, debt repayments, investments and insurance. Keep a financial cushion, and consider how several problems could affect you at once. Past financial crises usually had a main cause: speculation and borrowing to buy shares in 1929, overpriced internet stocks in the dot-com crash,

How Much Profit Do the World’s Biggest Companies Keep? Key Takeaways Nvidia generates $55.60 in profit for every $100 in revenue, the highest margin among the 30 largest companies in the Fortune Global 500. Big Tech dominates the top of the ranking, with Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta each keeping more than $30 of every $100 in revenue as profit. At the other end, several of the world’s largest retailers, health care companies, and energy firms keep less than $5 per $100. The world’s biggest companies generate enormous revenues, but the share that ultimately becomes profit varies widely. This graphic ranks the world’s 30 largest companies by how much profit they generate for every $100 in revenue, based on Fortune Global 500 data. Profits are after taxes, extraordinary credits or ch

My Investing Muse (26Oct2026) Waiting for the AI bank run An “AI bank run” is a possible risk, not a reported event [scenario]. In a bank run, withdrawals outpace repayment. Here, lenders and investors could withdraw funding faster than AI projects can replace it or renew debt. The risk is in credit markets, not bank queues. Rising lower-rated data-centre financing makes this scenario relevant. Cybersecurity and AI oversight. [fact] Last week brought an urgent CISA patch alert, a PyTorch supply-chain flaw and a critical GitLab bug. Claims that OpenAI lacks resources to address concerns are unverified. Can oversight keep pace with more autonomous AI? Sam Altman ruled out a 2026 IPO in September [fact]; a listing remains a future possibility. Listings require disclosure, while regulators sep

News and my thoughts from the past week (26Oct2026) 1. Major-company job cuts — American Express: 5%, about 3,500 employees; Barclays: 5,000 as AI improves efficiency; eBay: about 9%; Netflix: 6% globally, about 1,000 (WSJ via X user Zerohedge). Comcast plans significant cuts before its NBCUniversal spinoff (Bloomberg, 21 Oct). Perspective: cost savings are visible; extra AI revenue remains uncertain. 2. Morgan Stanley cuts its AMD chip forecast — Its 2026–2030 graphics-chip (GPU) forecast fell 43%, from 14.1 million to 8.0 million units: 5.9 million fewer (Morgan Stanley chart, 14 October). Perspective: weaker demand echoes the revenue and spending concerns in items 3 and 5. 3. AI revenue: expectations versus results — Rand Group Research compares combined OpenAI and Anthropic annual recu

Market Outlook of S&P500 (26Oct2026) Technicals as of Friday 23 October close (Yahoo Finance data): · Close 7,623.68 — down ~0.5% on the week, ~2.5% below the record 7,818.9 set earlier this month, still +11.4% year to date. · Below the 50-day average (7,700) and 20-day exponential average (7,713), but above the 200-day average (7,291). Short-term strength has faded; the longer-term uptrend holds. The index is roughly 330 points above its 200-day average. · MACD: −3.1, below its +12.6 signal line. This price-trend indicator suggests weakening momentum. · Chaikin Money Flow: −0.02. This price-and-volume indicator suggests modest, not heavy, selling. · Relative Strength Index (RSI): 42. Momentum is weak, but not yet “oversold”—a level suggesting unusually heavy selling. · The long-term t

Earnings Calendar (26Oct2026) Major earnings this week (Kimi compiled public calendars; Benson must confirm dates against his earnings calendar): · Wednesday: Microsoft and Alphabet after the close · Thursday: Amazon (AMZN) after the close — this week’s deep dive; Shell before the open · The shared question: is heavy AI spending generating sufficient returns? Amazon reports Thursday 29 October after the close; its call is at 5:00 pm ET. Figures come from the Yahoo Finance plugin and public sources. Profits are strong, but data-centre spending has sharply reduced free cash flow—cash left after capital investment. Valuation and sentiment. Amazon closed Friday at US$248.00, up about 10.6% over twelve months, with a market value near US$2.7 trillion. Barchart reports roughly 20% over its 52-we

Week ahead: 26 October 2026 — Central banks, the Fed and Amazon’s AI spending Economic Calendar (26Oct2026) Five major central banks announce rates this week, alongside the UK Budget. The Fed decides before key US inflation reports. Europe has ended summer time; the US changes on 1 November. For Asian readers, US events arrive one hour earlier than usual. 1. Fed decision — Wednesday 28 October, 2:00 pm ET (Chair Warsh’s press conference: 2:30 pm). Rates are 3.75–4.00%, following September’s first increase in three years. A hold is expected: 94 of 100 Reuters-polled economists predict no change; CME futures suggest a 10% chance of an increase. No updated rate forecasts (“dot plot”) are due. Watch the response to September’s 3.7% consumer inflation and signals of a December increase, as Pimc

Week ahead: 26 October 2026 — Central banks, the Fed and Amazon’s AI spending Economic Calendar (26Oct2026) Five major central banks announce rates this week, alongside the UK Budget. The Fed decides before key US inflation reports. Europe has ended summer time; the US changes on 1 November. For Asian readers, US events arrive one hour earlier than usual. 1. Fed decision — Wednesday 28 October, 2:00 pm ET (Chair Warsh’s press conference: 2:30 pm). Rates are 3.75–4.00%, following September’s first increase in three years. A hold is expected: 94 of 100 Reuters-polled economists predict no change; CME futures suggest a 10% chance of an increase. No updated rate forecasts (“dot plot”) are due. Watch the response to September’s 3.7% consumer inflation and signals of a December increase, as Pimc

NEWS FLASH: The Protest Wave Goes Global — 23Oct26 What began in 2025 as a youth revolt across Asia, Africa and Latin America has, through October 2026, reached Europe. More than 20 countries across four continents have now seen Gen Z-led protests. Europe is the latest chapter — not the source. Executive Summary Observation. A youth-led protest wave that started in 2025 — Indonesia, Nepal, Madagascar, Morocco, Peru — has spread into Europe through October 2026: France, Italy, Portugal, Greece, Spain, Albania and Belgium, with Germany next in line. The triggers vary by country; the pattern does not. Finding. The root is shared: a generation priced out of housing, short on secure work, and worn down by weak services and corruption. The movement is largely leaderless, organised on Discord and

5 · My Investing Muse Our thoughts on the week ahead. We use this section to explore questions, not to offer firm conclusions. The AI money-go-round The way money moves around the AI industry continues to concern us. Some attention is now on companies such as CoreWeave. Its co-founders have reportedly sold about $3.3 billion of shares since the 2025 IPO, while the value of their remaining holdings has fallen sharply. Insiders can sell shares for many reasonable reasons. Even so, it is fair to ask whether some are selling now because they expect prices to fall further. AI/ML as a share of US VC deal value, rising toward ~83% in 2026 YTD — Social Capital / PitchBook-NVCA. The real bottleneck is physical AI growth depends on more than computer chips, storage and internet connections. It also