To The Moon

Last week’s AI selloff wasn’t a crash — it was a rotation. But two bills landed at once: the AI capex bill and the first real AI credit bill. Our read on the week ahead — Apple, midterms, chip earnings, jobs — and the three ways it could break. Through My Asian Lens · Market Snapshot The AI Capex Reckoning As of Monday, 2 November 2026 (pre-US open). Figures through the Friday 31 Oct close, plus Monday's Asian tone. One-page visual summary — the full snapshot at a glance. Assumptions: "The week" means Mon 2 – Fri 6 Nov 2026. US data releases run on schedule. The Iran-oil and AI-credit backdrops persist but do not escalate into a system-wide event. Probabilities below are our judgement, not a forecast — treat them as medium-low confidence. Executive summary Observation Big Tech's Q3 earning

4 · News & My Investing Muse The news that moves prices ● The Fed pauses, December loads. Two officials wanted a hike now; every economist polled expects one on 9 December. Treat the pause as a comma, not a full stop. ● Midterms Tuesday. All 435 House seats, a third of the Senate. The market question is narrow: who writes tax and tariff law for two years. History says divided government suits stocks and the fuss fades within days. Both sides call it existential. Figure 12 — The midterm stakes as one side frames them (Elon Musk, X, 30 Oct 2026). ● Oil above US$100 is the common thread. Iran’s supply disruption sits behind the expected RBA and BoE hikes and behind the Fed’s two dissenters. Follow the chain to its human end — dearer oil means dearer diesel, fertiliser, freight and food. A

2 · Earnings Calendar Monday is heaviest by value — about US$6.3 trillion of market cap reports after the close, US$5 trillion of it Apple (US$1.98 expected; call 06:00 Tuesday SGT). Palantir reports in the same slot — see the Muse. Check Point, Estée Lauder and Marriott go before the open. Tuesday brings Shopify, Pfizer and Marathon Petroleum in the morning; after the close, AMD (US$1.68 versus US$0.97 a year ago — the cleanest read on AI-chip demand), plus Super Micro, Arista, Booking and Amgen. Wednesday is busiest by count (240 names): Uber, McDonald’s, Novo Nordisk, CVS and Datadog before the open; Arm, Qualcomm, AppLovin, CAVA and Dutch Bros after. Thursday brings Cigna and Molson Coors in the morning; Airbnb, Cloudflare and Atlassian at night. Friday brings Moderna, Humana, Oklo, Ch

BK Trading — Weekly Market Preview Week of Monday 2 – Friday 6 November 2026 The week in short. Rates are still going up — the Fed held at 3.75–4.00% but December is near-certain; keep rate-sensitive bets small. America votes Tuesday — don’t trade the night; the calmer days after the count are the better moment. Palantir reports Monday evening — our teaching case in a stock priced for perfection. Confidence: high on the schedule (confirmed dates); medium on the Australia/UK rate rises (~90% priced, not promised); low on anything marked as an estimate — flagged at the end. 1 · Economic Calendar The Fed held and called it a decision, not a pause. Warsh kept the rate at 3.75–4.00% in a 10–2 vote; Cook and Hammack wanted a rise now. When officials dissent that way, the next move is more likely

BK Trading — Weekly Market Preview Week of Monday 2 – Friday 6 November 2026 The week in short. Rates are still going up — the Fed held at 3.75–4.00% but December is near-certain; keep rate-sensitive bets small. America votes Tuesday — don’t trade the night; the calmer days after the count are the better moment. Palantir reports Monday evening — our teaching case in a stock priced for perfection. Confidence: high on the schedule (confirmed dates); medium on the Australia/UK rate rises (~90% priced, not promised); low on anything marked as an estimate — flagged at the end. 1 · Economic Calendar The Fed held and called it a decision, not a pause. Warsh kept the rate at 3.75–4.00% in a 10–2 vote; Cook and Hammack wanted a rise now. When officials dissent that way, the next move is more likely

The Polycrisis: How Today’s Problems Connect The risks we share in late 2026 — and why no single cause explains them. In brief What’s happening. Past downturns had one main cause. In late 2026, energy, food, household finances, lending and stocks are under pressure together. Problems in one area make the others worse. Why it matters. These systems depend on each other and have little spare capacity or reserves. They are less able to absorb setbacks, so problems spread quickly. What to check. Review your cash reserves, debt repayments, investments and insurance. Keep a financial cushion, and consider how several problems could affect you at once. Past financial crises usually had a main cause: speculation and borrowing to buy shares in 1929, overpriced internet stocks in the dot-com crash,

How Much Profit Do the World’s Biggest Companies Keep? Key Takeaways Nvidia generates $55.60 in profit for every $100 in revenue, the highest margin among the 30 largest companies in the Fortune Global 500. Big Tech dominates the top of the ranking, with Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta each keeping more than $30 of every $100 in revenue as profit. At the other end, several of the world’s largest retailers, health care companies, and energy firms keep less than $5 per $100. The world’s biggest companies generate enormous revenues, but the share that ultimately becomes profit varies widely. This graphic ranks the world’s 30 largest companies by how much profit they generate for every $100 in revenue, based on Fortune Global 500 data. Profits are after taxes, extraordinary credits or ch

My Investing Muse (26Oct2026) Waiting for the AI bank run An “AI bank run” is a possible risk, not a reported event [scenario]. In a bank run, withdrawals outpace repayment. Here, lenders and investors could withdraw funding faster than AI projects can replace it or renew debt. The risk is in credit markets, not bank queues. Rising lower-rated data-centre financing makes this scenario relevant. Cybersecurity and AI oversight. [fact] Last week brought an urgent CISA patch alert, a PyTorch supply-chain flaw and a critical GitLab bug. Claims that OpenAI lacks resources to address concerns are unverified. Can oversight keep pace with more autonomous AI? Sam Altman ruled out a 2026 IPO in September [fact]; a listing remains a future possibility. Listings require disclosure, while regulators sep

News and my thoughts from the past week (26Oct2026) 1. Major-company job cuts — American Express: 5%, about 3,500 employees; Barclays: 5,000 as AI improves efficiency; eBay: about 9%; Netflix: 6% globally, about 1,000 (WSJ via X user Zerohedge). Comcast plans significant cuts before its NBCUniversal spinoff (Bloomberg, 21 Oct). Perspective: cost savings are visible; extra AI revenue remains uncertain. 2. Morgan Stanley cuts its AMD chip forecast — Its 2026–2030 graphics-chip (GPU) forecast fell 43%, from 14.1 million to 8.0 million units: 5.9 million fewer (Morgan Stanley chart, 14 October). Perspective: weaker demand echoes the revenue and spending concerns in items 3 and 5. 3. AI revenue: expectations versus results — Rand Group Research compares combined OpenAI and Anthropic annual recu

Market Outlook of S&P500 (26Oct2026) Technicals as of Friday 23 October close (Yahoo Finance data): · Close 7,623.68 — down ~0.5% on the week, ~2.5% below the record 7,818.9 set earlier this month, still +11.4% year to date. · Below the 50-day average (7,700) and 20-day exponential average (7,713), but above the 200-day average (7,291). Short-term strength has faded; the longer-term uptrend holds. The index is roughly 330 points above its 200-day average. · MACD: −3.1, below its +12.6 signal line. This price-trend indicator suggests weakening momentum. · Chaikin Money Flow: −0.02. This price-and-volume indicator suggests modest, not heavy, selling. · Relative Strength Index (RSI): 42. Momentum is weak, but not yet “oversold”—a level suggesting unusually heavy selling. · The long-term t