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- grantergranter
  ·03:45
  Caution: This is a false boom made from massive corporate DEBT. An illusion from the AI Race that is ‘Robbing Peter to pay Paul’ the ‘US Oligarchs Sting’
  Bull or Bear Market? AI Spurs Rethink of Traditional Market Measures
  AI spurs rethink of traditional market measuresSept 2 -Everyone knows Wall Street calls a 20% drop in a major index a bear market. But what do you call it when the index posts big gains and losses practically every day and is still way up for the year?
  Bull or Bear Market? AI Spurs Rethink of Traditional Market Measures
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- grantergranter
  ·2023-12-04
  Multiple watchlist entries
  Is there any way to add multiple watchlists to a group like tradingview 'abcd', 'xyz', 'efgh' ?
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  Multiple watchlist entries
- grantergranter
  ·2021-04-04
  SO! The 35% stock market crash due to Covid was just my imagination? or was that that the Bulls didn't even stop for a toilet break that it was not considered a correction?
  How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?
  You may not like the answer. For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-b
  How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?
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This is a false boom made from massive corporate DEBT. An illusion from the AI Race that is ‘Robbing Peter to pay Paul’ the ‘US Oligarchs Sting’","listText":"Caution: This is a false boom made from massive corporate DEBT. An illusion from the AI Race that is ‘Robbing Peter to pay Paul’ the ‘US Oligarchs Sting’","text":"Caution: This is a false boom made from massive corporate DEBT. An illusion from the AI Race that is ‘Robbing Peter to pay Paul’ the ‘US Oligarchs Sting’","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/603510117323568","repostId":"2664781592","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2664781592","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1032215980","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4567337cbdf294b657b1fa87c5488b48"},"pubTimestamp":1788348305,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2664781592?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-09-02 19:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bull or Bear Market? AI Spurs Rethink of Traditional Market Measures","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2664781592","media":"Reuters","summary":"AI spurs rethink of traditional market measuresSept 2 -Everyone knows Wall Street calls a 20% drop in a major index a bear market. But what do you call it when the index posts big gains and losses practically every day and is still way up for the year?","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Everyone knows Wall Street calls a 20% drop in a major index a bear market. But what do you call it when the index posts big gains and losses practically every day and is still way up for the year?</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">That question is testing the limits of the market&#39;s most familiar vocabulary and prompting some to question whether a term like bear market really applies when tech indexes are red hot and constantly gyrating.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">&#34;It&#39;s kind of lazy nomenclature to be using on things that are that volatile,&#34; said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The Philadelphia SE Semiconductor Index .SOX, a benchmark for chip stocks, and South Korea&#39;s tech-heavy KOSPI both entered bear markets in July, based on the traditional measure. But even at their troughs, the indexes were still up 46% and 25%, respectively, for the year, thanks to triple-digit percentage gains over the past year.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">If that&#39;s a bear, it&#39;s not a particularly unfriendly one at the very least.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">&#34;These labels that people use probably make some sense for broad markets, but not for indexes such as SOX and KOSPI, which have had crazy parabolic runs,&#34; said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">While the debate may seem academic to some, the labels shape how investors perceive the severity of selloffs, and in the past have served as important markers to distinguish between routine pullbacks and a long-term shift in fundamentals.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">A bear market can last for months. Since 1928, bear markets in the S&amp;P 500 have on average lasted 289 days, or about 9.6 months, according to data from Hartford Funds.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">WHAT&#39;S A BETTER MEASURE?</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The debate on what constitutes a bear market is hardly new. In a 2008 blog post, Barry Ritholtz, co-founder and chief investment officer of Ritholtz Wealth Management, urged investors to ignore the &#34;squishy terminology.&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">But what seems like a semantic distinction can carry real investment consequences.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Given the potential boost from the AI boom, investors risk missing out on gains if traditional labels give them a false signal to sell. Indeed, the SOX and KOSPI have rebounded since their trip into old-fashioned bear territory, meaning investors who sold at the bottom would have missed out on recent gains.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Earnings for the S&amp;P 500 semiconductors and equipment industry group are estimated to grow at least 114.7% this year, LSEG-compiled data showed.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">There is no consensus on what should replace the traditional definition of bear markets. But among more than a dozen analysts Reuters interviewed, some argue that any new measure should account for the length of the decline, the underlying volatility, the broader direction of the economy and other factors.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">&#34;A bear market needs to be sustained over multiple weeks or months for confirmation. Deeper structural forces in the market need to be negative for a bear market to be real, such as high interest rates and peaking of the economy,&#34; said David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Moving averages, which track the average price movement over a period, and Fibonacci retracement, used to identify potential levels where a stock&#39;s decline may slow or reverse, could also be used to guide positioning, other investors said.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Interactive Brokers&#39; Sosnick said that a decline must at least exceed the index&#39;s one-year historical volatility on an annualized basis to be considered a bear market. By those measures, the SOX would need to fall more than 44% to qualify as a bear market, he said.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">While a new definition could possibly better reflect the volatile nature of the SOX, KOSPI and Wall Street&#39;s tech-elite Nasdaq 100 .NDX indexes, it is likely to be less tidy than the current measure.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">That may leave investors relying more on experience than any fixed threshold.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">&#34;For us guys that have been around a long time, it&#39;s more of a &#39;feel&#39; type situation,&#34; said Joe Saluzzi, co-head of equity trading at Themis Trading.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bull or Bear Market? 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AI Spurs Rethink of Traditional Market Measures\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1032215980\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4567337cbdf294b657b1fa87c5488b48);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-09-02 19:25</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Everyone knows Wall Street calls a 20% drop in a major index a bear market. But what do you call it when the index posts big gains and losses practically every day and is still way up for the year?</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">That question is testing the limits of the market&#39;s most familiar vocabulary and prompting some to question whether a term like bear market really applies when tech indexes are red hot and constantly gyrating.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">&#34;It&#39;s kind of lazy nomenclature to be using on things that are that volatile,&#34; said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The Philadelphia SE Semiconductor Index .SOX, a benchmark for chip stocks, and South Korea&#39;s tech-heavy KOSPI both entered bear markets in July, based on the traditional measure. But even at their troughs, the indexes were still up 46% and 25%, respectively, for the year, thanks to triple-digit percentage gains over the past year.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">If that&#39;s a bear, it&#39;s not a particularly unfriendly one at the very least.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">&#34;These labels that people use probably make some sense for broad markets, but not for indexes such as SOX and KOSPI, which have had crazy parabolic runs,&#34; said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">While the debate may seem academic to some, the labels shape how investors perceive the severity of selloffs, and in the past have served as important markers to distinguish between routine pullbacks and a long-term shift in fundamentals.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">A bear market can last for months. Since 1928, bear markets in the S&amp;P 500 have on average lasted 289 days, or about 9.6 months, according to data from Hartford Funds.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">WHAT&#39;S A BETTER MEASURE?</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The debate on what constitutes a bear market is hardly new. In a 2008 blog post, Barry Ritholtz, co-founder and chief investment officer of Ritholtz Wealth Management, urged investors to ignore the &#34;squishy terminology.&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">But what seems like a semantic distinction can carry real investment consequences.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Given the potential boost from the AI boom, investors risk missing out on gains if traditional labels give them a false signal to sell. Indeed, the SOX and KOSPI have rebounded since their trip into old-fashioned bear territory, meaning investors who sold at the bottom would have missed out on recent gains.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Earnings for the S&amp;P 500 semiconductors and equipment industry group are estimated to grow at least 114.7% this year, LSEG-compiled data showed.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">There is no consensus on what should replace the traditional definition of bear markets. But among more than a dozen analysts Reuters interviewed, some argue that any new measure should account for the length of the decline, the underlying volatility, the broader direction of the economy and other factors.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">&#34;A bear market needs to be sustained over multiple weeks or months for confirmation. Deeper structural forces in the market need to be negative for a bear market to be real, such as high interest rates and peaking of the economy,&#34; said David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Moving averages, which track the average price movement over a period, and Fibonacci retracement, used to identify potential levels where a stock&#39;s decline may slow or reverse, could also be used to guide positioning, other investors said.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Interactive Brokers&#39; Sosnick said that a decline must at least exceed the index&#39;s one-year historical volatility on an annualized basis to be considered a bear market. By those measures, the SOX would need to fall more than 44% to qualify as a bear market, he said.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">While a new definition could possibly better reflect the volatile nature of the SOX, KOSPI and Wall Street&#39;s tech-elite Nasdaq 100 .NDX indexes, it is likely to be less tidy than the current measure.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">That may leave investors relying more on experience than any fixed threshold.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">&#34;For us guys that have been around a long time, it&#39;s more of a &#39;feel&#39; type situation,&#34; said Joe Saluzzi, co-head of equity trading at Themis Trading.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://api.refinitiv.com/data/news/v1/stories/urn:newsml:reuters.com:20260902:nL4N44T10T:1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2664781592","content_text":"Everyone knows Wall Street calls a 20% drop in a major index a bear market. But what do you call it when the index posts big gains and losses practically every day and is still way up for the year?That question is testing the limits of the market's most familiar vocabulary and prompting some to question whether a term like bear market really applies when tech indexes are red hot and constantly gyrating.\"It's kind of lazy nomenclature to be using on things that are that volatile,\" said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth.The Philadelphia SE Semiconductor Index .SOX, a benchmark for chip stocks, and South Korea's tech-heavy KOSPI both entered bear markets in July, based on the traditional measure. But even at their troughs, the indexes were still up 46% and 25%, respectively, for the year, thanks to triple-digit percentage gains over the past year.If that's a bear, it's not a particularly unfriendly one at the very least.\"These labels that people use probably make some sense for broad markets, but not for indexes such as SOX and KOSPI, which have had crazy parabolic runs,\" said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers.While the debate may seem academic to some, the labels shape how investors perceive the severity of selloffs, and in the past have served as important markers to distinguish between routine pullbacks and a long-term shift in fundamentals.A bear market can last for months. Since 1928, bear markets in the S&P 500 have on average lasted 289 days, or about 9.6 months, according to data from Hartford Funds.WHAT'S A BETTER MEASURE?The debate on what constitutes a bear market is hardly new. In a 2008 blog post, Barry Ritholtz, co-founder and chief investment officer of Ritholtz Wealth Management, urged investors to ignore the \"squishy terminology.\"But what seems like a semantic distinction can carry real investment consequences.Given the potential boost from the AI boom, investors risk missing out on gains if traditional labels give them a false signal to sell. Indeed, the SOX and KOSPI have rebounded since their trip into old-fashioned bear territory, meaning investors who sold at the bottom would have missed out on recent gains.Earnings for the S&P 500 semiconductors and equipment industry group are estimated to grow at least 114.7% this year, LSEG-compiled data showed.There is no consensus on what should replace the traditional definition of bear markets. But among more than a dozen analysts Reuters interviewed, some argue that any new measure should account for the length of the decline, the underlying volatility, the broader direction of the economy and other factors.\"A bear market needs to be sustained over multiple weeks or months for confirmation. Deeper structural forces in the market need to be negative for a bear market to be real, such as high interest rates and peaking of the economy,\" said David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation.Moving averages, which track the average price movement over a period, and Fibonacci retracement, used to identify potential levels where a stock's decline may slow or reverse, could also be used to guide positioning, other investors said.Interactive Brokers' Sosnick said that a decline must at least exceed the index's one-year historical volatility on an annualized basis to be considered a bear market. By those measures, the SOX would need to fall more than 44% to qualify as a bear market, he said.While a new definition could possibly better reflect the volatile nature of the SOX, KOSPI and Wall Street's tech-elite Nasdaq 100 .NDX indexes, it is likely to be less tidy than the current measure.That may leave investors relying more on experience than any fixed threshold.\"For us guys that have been around a long time, it's more of a 'feel' type situation,\" said Joe Saluzzi, co-head of equity trading at Themis Trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DIA":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SPY":0.6,"SPYQ":0.6,"VOO":0.6,"SMAX":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SPXS":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SPYM":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"YSPY":0.6,"SPXL":0.6,"SPYH":0.6,"SPYU":0.6,".DJI":2,"HIBL":0.6,"SPDN":0.6,"SPUU":0.6,"MMAX":0.6,"SH":0.6,"DMAX":0.6,"DOG":0.6,".IXIC":2,".SPX":2,"UDOW":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":248224228155608,"gmtCreate":1701639542726,"gmtModify":1701653374196,"author":{"id":"3577833090482726","authorId":"3577833090482726","name":"granter","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577833090482726","idStr":"3577833090482726"},"themes":[],"title":"Multiple watchlist entries","htmlText":"Is there any way to add multiple watchlists to a group like tradingview 'abcd', 'xyz', 'efgh' ?","listText":"Is there any way to add multiple watchlists to a group like tradingview 'abcd', 'xyz', 'efgh' ?","text":"Is there any way to add multiple watchlists to a group like tradingview 'abcd', 'xyz', 'efgh' ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/248224228155608","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":9,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349087169,"gmtCreate":1617506384251,"gmtModify":1704700077708,"author":{"id":"3577833090482726","authorId":"3577833090482726","name":"granter","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577833090482726","idStr":"3577833090482726"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"SO! The 35% stock market crash due to Covid was just my imagination? or was that that the Bulls didn't even stop for a toilet break that it was not considered a correction?","listText":"SO! The 35% stock market crash due to Covid was just my imagination? or was that that the Bulls didn't even stop for a toilet break that it was not considered a correction?","text":"SO! The 35% stock market crash due to Covid was just my imagination? or was that that the Bulls didn't even stop for a toilet break that it was not considered a correction?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/349087169","repostId":"1191998262","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191998262","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617366158,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191998262?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-02 20:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191998262","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-b","content":"<blockquote>\n You may not like the answer.\n</blockquote>\n<p>For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p>\n<p>But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p>\n<p>It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p>\n<p><b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p>\n<p>To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p>\n<p>However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p>\n<p>We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p>\n<p><b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p>\n<p>Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p>\n<p>Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p>\n<p>Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p>\n<p><b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p>\n<p>But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p>\n<p>As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p>\n<p>To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p>\n<p>However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p>\n<p><b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p>\n<p>To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p>\n<p>While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p>\n<p>The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p>\n<p>If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-02 20:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmarkS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191998262","content_text":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmarkS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.\nBut there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.\nIt begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.\nDouble-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average\nTo begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.\nHowever, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.\nWe could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.\nCorrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom\nAnother interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.\nSince the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).\nPut another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.\nCrashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit\nBut the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.\nAs of the close of business on March 30, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.\nTo some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.\nHowever, previous instances of the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.\nKeep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks\nTo circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.\nWhile this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.\nThe reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&P 500 been negative.\nIf you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":10,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3579095603725368","authorId":"3579095603725368","name":"ElaineFaye","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8bc5404f3536aaf1bcf4b1d5a5f81b3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3579095603725368","idStr":"3579095603725368"},"content":"Same Thoughs on this. sOmetimes I was thinking what if i get a stock at this low rates and see some gaining, should i sell immedicately to get ready anytime for market crash in?","text":"Same Thoughs on this. sOmetimes I was thinking what if i get a stock at this low rates and see some gaining, should i sell immedicately to get ready anytime for market crash in?","html":"Same Thoughs on this. sOmetimes I was thinking what if i get a stock at this low rates and see some gaining, should i sell immedicately to get ready anytime for market crash in?"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}