To The Moon

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ The reason is simple: Tesla's year-to-date return is still negative, down 9%. Can Musk tolerate that? So it's very simple to stay bullish on Tesla — enough to sell at-the-money puts like $TSLA 20261106 400.0 PUT$ . Yes, there was a big sell call order at 440: $TSLA 20270115 440.0 CALL$ . But I don't think it's a big problem. For a more conservative put sale, you can pick the 380 or 390 strike: $TSLA 20261106 380.0 PUT$  . Also, watch heavyweight stocks that still haven't turned positive for the year. They're probably the

If SOXX doesn't break below its 200-day moving average this week, this pullback is over for now. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Last Friday, a big SPY bearish order rolled: it closed this week's 760 put $SPY 20261030 760.0 PUT$  and rolled into this week's 755–745 bear put spread $SPY 20261030 755.0 PUT$ . That's a classic tail-trade strategy. For example, if you bought calls or puts for a trend trade and hit your target but aren't sure if the trend is pausing or continuing, you can roll to a deeper out-of-the-money strike with the same expiry. Tail moves often hit hardest but don't last long, so you don't need

$Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$ Thursday's crash sent SOXL options opening data through the roof. Bears went all-in bearish — both call and put opens were bearish orders, including big same-day-expiry trades. For example: Sell $SOXL 20261120 120.0 CALL$  — 29K contracts opened Sell $SOXL 20261023 85.0 CALL$  — 20K contracts opened Buy $SOXL 20261023 80.0 PUT$ — 30K contracts opened Buy$SOXL 20290119 55.0 PUT$  — 8,428 contracts opened Big SOXL orders aren't

These past few days I kept waiting for big buy orders to come in. They did show up, for example: $SPCX 20270416 215.0 CALL$  — 12K contracts bought, over $10M traded; $DRAM 20270319 60.0 CALL$  — 30K contracts bought, over $10M traded; $CRWV 20270319 85.0 CALL$  — 14K contracts traded, close to $10M+. Today, during the big selloff, DRAM $DRAM 20270416 60.0 CALL$ opened another 27K contracts, over $9M traded. But these big orders have one problem: they were bought too openly. You can find them by searching Tiger's desk

It's been tough, but we finally got a big call order. A bounce needs big call orders underneath it. But then again, just because there are big call orders doesn't mean it's time to be bullish. The January-expiry DRAM 60 call, $DRAM 20270115 60.0 CALL$ , opened 87K contracts on Monday, with about $16M+ traded. This order is the real deal: out-of-the-money strike, nearly 100K contracts opened, over $10M traded. That's a serious bet on a bounce. The strike is out of the money, at the level where the early-October drop started. That means the bounce target isn't very high. But if a real bounce starts, it could be enough to take SPY to 800. Of course, Monday's weak bounce wasn't just bulls. SOXX opened the Oct 30 expiry 360 pu

Semiconductors have fallen to a fairly meaningful support level. For more downside from here, they need to break below it with conviction. For upside, they need to hold the support. So the big orders opened Friday were very extreme: buying short-term deep out-of-the-money puts, the kind that cost a dime or two. The upside is that if the market crashes at Monday's open, they double right away. The other upside is that if the market opens higher, you only lose a little. It's a bet with almost no downside. But from other players' point of view, when big buy orders are very cheap, it usually means the direction they're betting on is seen as low probability. Another less cheap bearish play is buying out-of-the-money puts, say expiring next year. That works better for positioning before a crash,

The value of Trump accounts auto-investing in the S&P 500 keeps looking better. Semiconductors crashed, dragging Korea's KOSPI down 17% for the month. SOXX fell 9.5% for the month. But as of Friday premarket, the S&P 500 is up 1.2% this month. The chain selling that usually hits U.S. stocks after a sector crash didn't happen this time. To keep the index balanced, consumer and healthcare sectors are being pushed to the limit. The market makers are really working overtime to herd money where they want it. The popular story that Democrats sweeping the House would crack down on AI sounds reasonable. But guess which party Nancy Pelosi — Congress's stock-trading star — belongs to. She bought NVDA and BE stock and calls. $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bon

Some people may have noticed that the index spikes hard for two days every month, usually at the start of the month. Then the trend slides down like a paper airplane losing speed. Then a new month starts, and it spikes again. This makes the daily chart look like a dog chewed on it, but the monthly chart keeps climbing steadily along the 5-month moving average. This pattern started after July 4th this year. That's also when Trump's baby account policy was announced — a plan to get kids to auto-invest in the S&P 500. From some big bearish orders, you can see the S&P 500 really wanted a proper pullback after July. July was painful for a lot of people, but the S&P 500 held firmly above its 5-month moving average. In other words, sectors can take turns falling, but the S&P 500's

Back from the holiday, everything had changed. Sector rotation has reached semiconductors, which are now bleeding to feed tech giants and bank stocks. The bearish turn was very sudden. From a pure chart-reading view, it means the part that jumped the gun in September gives back its gains, and then the stocks that didn't rise in September should rise. Of course, as some fall and others rise, the overall market keeps chopping higher near its highs. With that idea, this week's two big earnings reports could look very different: financial stocks may bounce after earnings, while TSMC is more likely to keep drifting near lows after its report. I won't pretend anymore: I peeked at the answer key. Before earnings, big sell put orders showed up in financial stocks, like

The title is my attitude toward the Q4 market — more precisely, through Anthropic's IPO. Q4 has three major tailwinds. First, Anthropic has tentatively finalized its IPO date. It's reportedly planning a large-scale IPO before the Thanksgiving holiday (around November 26), and could begin IPO marketing as early as the week of November 9. It plans to target a valuation between $1.8 trillion and $2 trillion. As everyone knows, a blockbuster company going public means the market atmosphere has to be heated up — the market must rise. Second, historical data: since 1930, the S&P 500 has averaged a 5.6% gain in Q4 of midterm election years — twice the average gain of other years. Third, tonight's nonfarm payrolls. Only 29,000 jobs added — it made me laugh. Rate-hike odds immediately dropped.