To The Moon

SPY has hit the first pullback target at 670. Whether it continues down to 650 next is anyone's guess. The Israel-Iran conflict could still escalate — or de-escalate. De-escalation leads to a bounce. Escalation leads to more downside. Trying to predict the trajectory of a chaotic event like this is a fool's game. But one thing's clear: downside feels easier than upside right now. Tail risk is getting priced in big time. Volatility is spiking. Puts are expensive. Look at SPY flows — traders are leaning into 0DTE and weekly puts to hedge crash risk. Short-dated, sharp, directional. This environment? Not ideal for the usual sell-put routine. Probably stays that way through mid-April — about 4–5 weeks, per Trump's own estimate. Options price risk. When risk stops behaving within a normal range

First, let's look at this week's large orders from the "Put Buyer." Sell Puts: $ORCL 20260306 116.0 PUT$ : 85,000 contracts sold to open $SMH 20260306 350.0 PUT$ : 26,000 contracts sold to open However, the play on AMD was different — Buy Puts: $AMD 20260306 160.0 PUT$ : 42,000 contracts bought to open Implied volatility (IV) on out-of-the-money semiconductor puts remains extremely elevated. This isn't due to bearish AI commentary, but rather the macroeconomic risk-off sentiment stemming from the Israel-Iran war, fueling expectations of a broad market pullback. It's crucial to note that t

$NVDA$ First glance at the flows and one thing's clear — 170 is the line. The 170 put for March 6 expiry just printed 238k contracts. At this size, whether buy or sell, it's gonna act as a magnet. But it also means breaking below 170 is gonna be tough. So back to the usual: 170–195 chop. Next week's institutional call spread? Sell 192.5 $NVDA 20260306 192.5 CALL$ , hedge with 200 $NVDA 20260306 200.0 CALL$ . And the put sales keep stacking: $ORCL 20260306 130.0 PUT$  — 48k opened$SMH 20260306 355.0 PUT$  — 62k opened<

NVDA's earnings event was priced like a macro print — and it traded like one too. FOMC-style: sell the headline, maybe bounce the next day. NVDA? We'll see. Early flow doesn’t look great. A bearish position opened: 10k April 2nd 160 puts $NVDA 20260402 160.0 PUT$ . Notional: ~$2M. April 2nd rings a bell. Last year’s tariff shock. This trade might not just be about earnings — macro’s in the driver’s seat. Iran, tariffs, China. Any of these could move markets. Even with macro hanging overhead, I still think NVDA is a sell-the-dip name. Could be a chop year. Range still looks 170–195. Unless Trump does something stupid — then all bets are off. This year is setup for a brutal bull-bear fight. Core question: where does the mon

Checking today's option flows — another wave of massive weekly put sales across chips: $AMD 20260227 192.5 PUT$  — 70k opened$AVGO 20260227 285.0 PUT$  — 20k opened$ORCL 20260227 131.0 PUT$  — 15k opened$SMH 20260227 390.0 PUT$  — 13k opened$TSM 20260227 360.0 PUT$  — 13k opened This has the same vibe as pre-holiday put sales back in Jan. But here's the twist: this time delta is below 0.08 — way lower than the 0.13–0.18 range from before. Dig deeper and

$NVDA$ The bull-bear battle this year has never been more intense. Just when I thought this week's NVDA earnings were a foregone conclusion, this order hit the tape: Buy Call $NVDA 20260320 205.0 CALL$  Block print: 29k contracts opened. Estimated notional: $13M+. Meanwhile, the weekly call spread camp is running: Sell Call 195 $NVDA 20260227 195.0 CALL$  / Buy Call 202.5 $NVDA 20260227 202.5 CALL$ . Translation: this week, 195 likely caps. And looking at put flow, downside could stretch below 180. But here’s the twist — call strikes below 200 are thinning out. Totally different from

Checking the option flow today, I ran into a familiar sight — a wave of deep OUTM put sales across major chip names. Last seen on Jan 26. Flashback to Jan 22: $NVDA 20260220 175.0 PUT$  — 109.8k opened$AMD 20260220 187.5 PUT$  — 74.9k opened$ORCL 20260220 137.0 PUT$  — 56.8k opened$SMH 20260220 380.0 PUT$  — 43.4k opened$AVGO 20260220 305.0 PUT$  — 41.0k opened$MU 20260220 362.5 PUT$  —

$NVDA$ Barring any surprises, NVIDIA looks set to continue grinding between 170 and 200 through the first half of the year—a sweet spot for option sellers. I came across 10k contracts opened on the $NVDA 20260618 220.0 CALL$ . Nothing flagged as a block trade, but digging into the fills shows the orders were chopped up into tiny pieces. The screenshot says it all. Most of the flow? Sell-side. Not a coincidence—Broadcom showed the exact same footprint. $AVGO 20260618 400.0 CALL$  also saw around 10k contracts, finely sliced, same direction: sells. Why the cloak-and-dagger? Likely to avoid getting front-run. Both are ~0.35 delta. If the stock runs the wr

$NVDA$ Looking at the option flows, NVDA's upcoming earnings next week don't seem to have any substantial impact on the stock's trend. Seeing that large sell call order at the 205 strike for March 13th $NVDA 20260313 205.0 CALL$  tells me the market still expects the top to hold. The main issue is that the AI sector trend is too transparent—there are no major off-exchange catalysts to add fuel. What the market really needs is a groundbreaking use case or a significant leap forward. Anything beyond that is already priced in, just burning through valuation. That said, with earnings approaching, implied volatility is picking up, which means more premium for sellers to harvest. For now, the range holds through early March: 1

Positive news from OpenAI, with monthly growth rate recovering by 10%, directly ignited a short squeeze on Monday, crushing the bears. However, subsequent market action will likely continue with sector rotation. $NVDA$ Both large bullish and bearish single-leg orders appeared (not a spread): $NVDA 20260220 175.0 PUT$ , 64,000 contracts opened. $NVDA 20260220 207.5 CALL$ , 78,000 contracts opened. Based on the overall opening activity, the price is highly likely to continue oscillating within the large 170-190 range from this week into next. Therefore, the 207.5 call is quite intriguing; currently, it seems difficult for the price to break above 200 even