To The Moon

One of the things you develop after a few decades of investing is battle scars and a historical view of where we are today. History never repeats, but it often rhymes. As we’ve watched some of the absolutely crazy stock performance in 2026, I think it’s important to give some of that historical context to some parts of the market. I don’t know how this all ends, but I know how it’s ended before. I’ve seen these growth numbers. I’ve felt the investor confidence. And I’ve learned lessons along the way. The Market’s Rocket Ships Today, the market is bidding up all stocks related to AI, semiconductors, rockets, and dreams. Some of the stocks rising rapidly are seeing outstanding earnings, and we could debate if those are sustainable or not, but others are spending money at a growing clip to fu

The idea that we’ll use chatbots for everything we use apps and software for a decade from now is frankly absurd. Maybe chatbots will be more useful than they’ve ever been, but replacing all software with something like ChatGPT seems far-fetched to me. And in that sense, the SaaSpacolypse has been overblown. What will change is the business model behind the software we use. I think that’s undeniable, at this point. We’ve seen business model shifts in software, and they aren’t often smooth, but they can be moments of opportunity for investors. My childhood was spent putting floppy disks and then CDs into computers to install everything from games to antivirus software. Sometime in the late 2000s, that was replaced by downloadable software that ultimately led to the SaaS revolution. Instead

For those of us looking for signs of an AI bubble popping, there are no signs. Earnings coming out of chip, energy, and infrastructure stocks are incredible right now. As trillions of dollars are poured into the AI buildout, there seems to be no end to the exponential growth for the companies involved. It’s not just $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ that’s seeing growth and guiding for 🚀 demand. It’s $Intel(INTC)$ $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ $Bloom Energy Corp(BE)$ $Cerebras Systems(CBRS)$ to name a few. Anyone who can make a chip or build some energy is going to the moon. And that exponential grow

In early 2021, inflation was something written about in history books. Unless you remembered the late 1970s, you had never really experienced inflation. At the end of 2021, inflation was a very real problem for real people, but the market thought it was a short-term event. Stocks rose nearly 30% during the year, and there was reason to be optimistic as jobs opened up and the pandemic subsided. But that euphoria only lasted so long. Inflation caused very real changes in how people spent money and prompted a major response from the Federal Reserve. When the market finally woke up, it wiped out all of 2021’s gains and, in the case of the Nasdaq, then some. Are we in the same place today? It may be worse. But more on that in a moment. What’s Up With Inflation? April inflation data — known as t

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ profits are soaring, there’s no doubt about that. And the market has gone higher with those profits. My question is around what’s sustainable and what isn’t in today’s economy. For example, can you guess what company this quote is about? [Company X] today posted robust earnings that roughly tripled expectations, a surge primarily caused by sales in its memory division. Yep, it’s Micron $Micron Technology(MU)$ ( ▼ 6.62% ). Now, guess what year this was written? I’ll give you a hint, it wasn’t 2026. It was 2000. September 26, 2000, to be exact. Micron is by its nature a cyclical stock. When times are good, profits surge and the money is reinvested in growing capacity, which inevitably lead

This is really interesting and worth explaining in simple terms. - AI "theme" stocks ( $Micron Technology(MU)$ $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ $Intel(INTC)$ etc) are so hot right now traders/hedge funds "have to" own them. - If you're a long/short/leveraged fund you need to go long Stock A/short Stock B. That's the "game." - What do you short if you're going long parabolic AI stocks? Something that isn't going to burn you. A stock that's solid but stodgy or could be disrupted would be perfect. - So you buy NBIS and go short $Uber(UBER)$ - Maybe you buy MU and short

I didn't understand $Netflix(NFLX)$ 10 years ago, but I learned lessons from that mistake. 1. Users > Profits: In a digital business, it's critical to reach scale. Profits don't matter on the path to scale. 2. Delay Taking Price: Margins are low? Who cares! See #1. 3. Suppliers eventually have to bend the knee to the one who owns demand. You don't say, "I'm going to watch Sony's K-Pop tonight." You say, "I'm going to watch Netflix." Demand matters above all else. Owning the customer is the ultimate goal. The companies we CHOOSE to interact with are the ultimate winners on the market. 😍 Been eyeing Tiger merch but short on Tiger Coins? Now's your chance. 🎁 We’ve selected 4 high-demand items across practial, lifestyle, and learning, now with a lo

1. $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ Earnings after close today. I'm looking at 2 things. 1. Market share (vs Ro), which has been falling. Is that trend starting to shift? 2. Revenue guidance. Info below, but Q1 may be bad and guidance may be 📈. Hims Guidance: $2.7-$2.9 billion Analyst Est.: $2.72 billion Guidance up $100 million on the revenue side, but Adj. EBITDA margins at the low end. IMO, growth is more important now, not margin. Shares choppy after hours. More soon. 2. $GoPro(GPRO)$ Sad to see $GPRO slowly meeting an end. For me, a lot of lessons were learned with this company about differentiation, bundling, and moats in technology. The biggest lesson: A cool product doesn't = a great business.

My wife called this week at an unusual time for her. What could it be? Was she in an accident? Did something happen at work? Are the kids OK? None of the above… It cost $80 to fill the gas tank! That was the emergency. This is a very real problem for the economy and the market. Food and gasoline are the two items we buy that we feel almost vividly. And prices seem to be going up and up. On the jobs front, it isn’t much better. If you’ve known anyone who has had to look for a job recently, you know the job market isn’t great. No wonder consumer confidence is low. But more on that in a moment. The Confusing State of the Market I watch earnings and economic data on a daily basis, and at times, the data and the market seem to move in opposite directions. This is one of those times. Consumer Co

The stock market has always had a problem with the known versus the unknown. We know what’s happened in the past, and that can create a narrative that’s either positive or negative. And it’s easy to extrapolate the recent past to infinity. But the future is inherently unknown. In 2022, $Netflix(NFLX)$ saw revenue fall sequentially in the fourth quarter, and the company’s growth was clearly decelerating. The slowdown was a shock following solid numbers during the pandemic, and shares lost 75% of their value in early 2022. But late 2022/early 2023 was also an inflection point for the business. Revenue growth picked up in the back half of 2023, and the company has posted solid revenue growth from then until today. No surprise, the stock also did well