To The Moon

$Anthropic(ANT)$ ’s S-1 Is Here! It’s all hands on deck. I had something else prepared for this morning, but when the biggest IPO filing we’ve ever seen hit, it’s time to call an audible. We got official numbers from Anthropic, the fastest-growing company at scale that I’ve ever seen, and a potential $2 trillion IPO within the next month. It’s impressive. It’s scary. And it’s holding up the market. I’ll get to the Anthropic S-1 and what I took from it in a moment. Anthropic’s S-1 If you’ve never seen an S-1, the financial filing a company makes before going public, this is an interesting one. Find the S-1 here. Anthropic is not only a well-known company, but it’s also arguably the most important in the AI buildout. The company has ~$500 billion in

$Anthropic(ANT)$ ’s S-1 appears to confirm roughly 45% Q/Q revenue growth in Q3. The filing also says that from Sep. 2025 to Sep. 2026, TTM revenue grew ~1,200%, while headcount rose ~170%. Revenue per employee jumped from $1.4M to over $6.6M. But the bigger concern may be the obligations section. $ANT has at least $390B in non-cancellable spending commitments over the next decade tied to $MSFT, $GOOG, and $AMZN. The $SPCX deal is also massive, though it reportedly includes exit options. That puts enormous pressure on revenue to keep scaling rapidly. Growth is impressive, but the commitments make execution critical. The market will be watching whether $ANT can grow into those obligations. $Microsoft(MSFT)$

The stock market threw something of a fit on Thursday, and a lot of investors were confused. No big company failed. Demand for AI still looks like it’s off the charts. Why would the AI trade be down so badly if the numbers keep going up? I’ve been laying out my thesis for months (here, here, here, and here, for example) and explained why I’m not getting in front of what may be a steamroller. And that’s worked well of late. The Asymmetric Portfolio is up 1.7% this week thru Thursday, while the $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ ( ▼ 0.01% ) is down 0.75% and the $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ ( ▼ 0.52% ) is only up 0.1%. Yes, my positioning with a non-AI portfolio has paid off this week. But let’s be honest, it hasn’t pai

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Broadcom(AVGO)$ $Micron Technology(MU)$ $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ $Intel(INTC)$ $Marvell Technology(MRVL)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ It’s easy to have conviction when everything in the AI trade is going up. The real test comes when

When I was growing up in the 1980s, we had a set of Britannica encyclopedias on the bookshelf in the living room. If I had a question about an animal, country, disease, or anything else, that’s where I could go to try to find an answer. Despite being thousands of pages, the explanations weren’t in-depth, weren’t updated, and often what I was looking for wasn’t there. The next step was going to the public library a few blocks away. And I never quite got the hang of searching their catalog system. If you weren’t alive then, it’s hard to explain just how hard it was to find information. Sometime in the late 1980s, we got a computer with MS-DOS. In the early 1990s, that computer could access the internet through a service called Prodigy. Suddenly, you could get the weather 24/7, not just at 5:

Only about $0.05 of every dollar spent on $Uber(UBER)$ ends up as profit or free cash flow for the company. Now imagine an ad-supported version of Uber. What if advertising revenue could subsidize fares, making rides significantly cheaper — or even free in some cases? 👀 Uber already has a massive consumer network and valuable insights into shopping and travel behavior. Advertising could create a higher-margin revenue stream without requiring a proportional increase in rides. The big question is how much of that potential can translate into sustainable free cash flow. A trillion-dollar valuation by 2035 is an ambitious target, but new monetization opportunities could change the math. 🚗 Meanwhile, $General Motor

Hi Tigers! 🐯 If you didn't invest through the dot-com crash, remember two things: 1️⃣ It can get worse. 2️⃣ It can last a LOT longer than you think. I'm buying the dip, but I'm not buying stocks just because they've fallen 20%. A big drop doesn't automatically make a stock cheap. If earnings expectations are still too optimistic and valuations remain stretched, there could be plenty of downside left. If this really is a bubble bursting, some companies won't survive. Weak balance sheets, cash burn, and dependence on cheap capital can turn a market correction into an existential crisis. The dot-com crash taught us that even promising technologies can produce terrible investments when you pay too much for them. The goal isn't to catch the bottom. It's to own businesses that can survive the do

The last few days have felt different on the stock market. Questions are being asked about former rocket ships (including Rocket Lab), Anthropic’s revenue growth is slowing, neocloud yields are rising, companies are cutting back on AI spending, inflation is stubbornly high, and it’s possible the semiconductor and AI stocks that have held up the entire market in 2026 could come crashing down. At least, that’s the narrative. A few days doesn’t make a trend, but if you’ve felt uneasy the last few days, it’s time to remind ourselves how to survive — and thrive — in a bear market. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ Do Your Research Ahead of Time! It’s almost impossible to think clearly in a fal

The problem with neoclouds is simple: they require enormous amounts of capital to sell what is increasingly becoming a commodity. The model works until capital gets expensive, margins compress, or investors stop funding the next round. Then the whole thing can unravel quickly. And that’s the risk facing $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ . The stock is approaching the conversion prices on its 2031 and 2033 convertible debt. Those maturities may be years away, but if the stock falls below $180.31, the risk changes: instead of potential equity dilution, the company could face a need to repay roughly $4.3 BILLION in cash. Could it refinance? Possibly. But potentially at a much higher interest rate, adding even more pressure to the business. That’s the downward spiral. <

$Bumble Inc.(BMBL)$ ( ▲ 0.34% ) hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire since entering the portfolio a year ago, but it’s going to have a successful exit. The company has accepted a buyout offer from Ithaca Holdings for $6.05 per share, a 138% premium to the stock’s closing price on Friday. As of now, the stock trades for $5.94 per share, and I’m going to use that as an opportunity to take a 26% gain on the stock and move on. Why I’m Selling Bumble To be honest, Bumble was on my short list to sell over the last few months. I didn’t sell because I over-index to not selling stocks, and in this case, that worked out to my benefit. But the business wasn’t exactly lighting the world on fire, and the turnaround I hoped for hasn’t really taken sha