To The Moon

We're selling consumer spending and credit risk but buying big pharma because people with no money are going to buy GLP-3s? Ohh, and YAY Walmart $Wal-Mart(WMT)$ ! And energy and telecom are up because something, something people are going to drive their cars in default to jobs they don't have. BTW, the AI disrupting the economy is BS and semiconductor stocks are all doomed. But seriously, more drugs! Did I make sense of today's market? $Apple(AAPL)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Broadcom(AVGO)$

I didn't understand $Netflix(NFLX)$ 10 years ago, but I learned lessons from that mistake. 1. Users > Profits: In a digital business, it's critical to reach scale. Profits don't matter on the path to scale. 2. Delay Taking Price: Margins are low? Who cares! See #1. 3. Suppliers eventually have to bend the knee to the one who owns demand. You don't say, "I'm going to watch Sony's K-Pop tonight." You say, "I'm going to watch Netflix." Demand matters above all else. Owning the customer is the ultimate goal. The companies we CHOOSE to interact with are the ultimate winners on the market. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as

In April 2025, President Trump announced sweeping tariffs that sent the market into a tailspin. Companies from apparel to automotive reconfigured their supply chains in order to adjust to a seemingly constant flow of tariff changes day after day. And on Friday, most of those tariffs were deemed illegal by the Supreme Court. We don’t know if consumers, manufacturers, importers, retailers, or someone else will get the ~$175 billion in tariffs already paid back, but there’s at least some resolution to last year’s biggest wild card. While the Supreme Court ruled the president can’t put specific tariffs on countries willy-nilly, he can legally put a blanket tariff of up to 15% on all imports (Congress gave that power), which is exactly what President Trump has done. For now, that seems to be wh

OpenAI is reportedly finalizing a $100 billion funding round that includes $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $Softbank Group Corp(SFTBY)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$. The deal will push OpenAI’s valuation to $850 billion, which would make it the 12th most valuable company publicly traded in the U.S., and funding is now over $160 billion. Every time I hear about one of these big funding rounds, it makes me nervous because the foundation on which these valuations are being built is tenuous, at best. And still, the funding and spending on AI is driving everything from semiconductor stocks to HVAC, energy, and materials stocks higher

Is Something Big Really Happening? Why (I think) Silicon Valley and Wall Street are so terrified of disruption this time. Software and growth stocks are getting hammered as investors price in a high likelihood of disruption from artificial intelligence (AI) across the board. What solidified this freak-out in my mind was a viral post called Something Big Is Happening that reads like “my programming job is being replaced by AI, and you’re next.” What’s the fuss all about? What’s signal and what’s noise? I think we need to take a step back and look at who is being impacted by AI today and why they’re so worried. No surprise, the fear of disruption is emanating from Silicon Valley and Wall Street. The market isn’t worried about farming jobs. Or construction jobs. Or manufacturing. Or retail. T

Any discussion of $Walt Disney(DIS)$ ’s long-term strategy needs to start with entertainment. If the studios aren’t producing hit content, nothing else really matters for Disney. Unfortunately, Disney no longer breaks out results from studios, cable, and streaming, so we get this conglomerate look at the entertainment business overall. Within these results, we do know that cable is in decline. In fiscal 2025, linear network revenue was down 16% to $2.06 billion, and operating income dropped 21% to $391 million. There’s no indication that the decline has stopped, but it’s being overcome by growth at studios and streaming. I’ll start with studios, which include Disney Animation, Lucasfilm, Marvel, and Pixar. The box office is showing us that Disney i

No matter the company, stock values don’t go up in a straight line. They’re volatile depending on the market’s mood, comments on conference calls, analyst upgrades or downgrades, and even the weather. That volatility can be maddening, but we need to keep in mind that the key is buying great companies that can grow for a long time and just hang on for the ride. For example… 1. $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ Amazon’s growth chart looks like a steady climb up and to the right. And in many ways, it was with growth rates over 20% for most of the last two decades. But the stock performance was very different. There were drawdowns (the stock price decline from its peak) of as much as 65% and it often took years to get back to previous highs. 2.

$HIMS is shaking up the pharma space, challenging $NVO’s patents in a high-stakes bet that could disrupt the weight loss market. Both $NVO and $LLY face significant downside risk if litigation goes against them, making this a fascinating clash between nimble disruptors and Big Pharma. Meanwhile, $MGM is quietly reducing its float, repurchasing 5.5% of shares in a single quarter, signaling confidence amid broader market volatility. Investors should watch legal battles and corporate capital moves alike for asymmetric opportunities. 1. $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ My gut feeling is that $HIMS is playing the ultimate disruption card. They’re pushing so hard Novo sues, which ultimately leads to Novo defending — and potentially invalidating — the

In 2015, Sam Altman and Elon Musk founded OpenAI in part out of fear that $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ would dominate AI if someone else didn’t get there first. When the ChatGPT moment hit in November 2022, the conventional wisdom was that Google’s moment of disruption had arrived. The company was behind in AI models, didn’t have compelling products, and was slow and unimaginative in releasing products. The criticisms were valid at the time. What Google did have was infrastructure and distribution. If it caught up on models and product, the threat could be snuffed out. The question was: Could ChatGPT become the go-to application for artificial intelligence before Google turned the search bar, Chrom

The market favors companies that own demand and scale. $NFLX shows how dominating customer choice beats short-term profits, while $NVO faces pressure from competition and falling prices—highlighting the advantage of demand aggregators like $HIMS. 1. $Netflix(NFLX)$ I didn't understand Netflix $NFLX 10 years ago, but I learned lessons from that mistake. 1. Users > Profits: In a digital business, it's critical to reach scale. Profits don't matter on the path to scale. 2. Delay Taking Price: Margins are low? Who cares! See #1. 3. Suppliers eventually have to bend the knee to the one who owns demand. You don't say, "I'm going to watch Sony's K-Pop tonight." You say, "I'm going to watch Netflix." Demand matters above all else. Owning the customer is