2026 Outlook: The Great ResetKey Takeaways• Equities enter a late-cycle correction phase • Bonds and the dollar strengthen as risk comes off • Crypto faces a deeper deleveraging cycle • Gold consolidates after a multi-year advanceThe table below outlines 2026 downside risk zones and expected year-end closing levels across major assets. 1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ The S&P500 has marginally exceeded the upper boundary of its multi-year trend channel — a common signature of terminal 5th waves.The Trigger: A reversal back below ~6,650 would confirm a false breakout.The Trade: We are positioning for a higher-degree Wave 4 correction toward 5,500–5,100 (-20–25%), which aligns perfectly with the 200-week MA. 2. $iShar
$NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ has failed to confirm new highs, forming bearish divergences versus both $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ (Dec 10) and $S&P 500(.SPX)$ (Dec 26).The index is now printing higher lows but lower highs, compressing into a bearish triangle.This setup suggests tech is coiling for a sharp downside resolution, with a measured move to 23,500–22,900, aligning with equality of the initial leg down and the 200-DMA.A daily close below 25,165 would confirm the sell signal.If that zone is reached, the probability strongly increases that NDX has already peaked. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlim
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed below the prior ATH, inverting the Daily FVG after a bearish SMT vs. $DJI & $NDX — a clear downside warning.That said, it’s a low-volume holiday week with bullish seasonality.Weekly Bias: Neutral/Bearish — expecting chop while price sets the stage for a larger move ahead.Key Levels:• Below 6832 → firmly bearish• Confirm: Daily Close below 6816 Triangle Breakdown ➡️ Target Hit. 📉We identified the triangle completion called for the drop to 6935 - $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2603(ESmain)$ flushed to the lows ticking 6935 🎯We then expected a reversal back to the upper trendline from the lows✅ For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit o
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ made new all-time highs, perfectly tagging the W5:W1 Fib ratio — exactly as the alternate bullish path anticipated.However, double SMT divergences are now present, suggesting this rally is marginal with index momentum fading. Key Levels:• First bearish Indication: A close below 6910 signals the immediate trend is weakening. • Confirmation: Bears need a Daily close below 6816.Until 6910 is lost, we may see a drift higher or choppy action due to the shortened holiday week. Once 6816 gives way, we look for a Wave 1 decline. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$$E-mini S&P 500 - main 2603(ESmain)$$NASDA
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ | Primary CountWhile SPX respected Daily FVG support, $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2603(ESmain)$ closed below it—triggering a sell signal following the bearish SMT with $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ at all time highs.Despite the 50-DMA reclaim, price is capping at the 61.8% retracement and CISD resistance at 6833.This sets up a 3rd of a 3rd wave flush targeting 6400Confirmation: A close < 50-DMA is the warning. A cross of last week's low confirms the decline. SPX | Alternate SPX reclaimed the 50-DMA and printed a bullish CISD.Combined with bullish seasonality, the door is open for a push to 6950–7000.The Pivot: Bulls MUST hold the 50-DMA. A close bel
$SPX Rally Corrective, Bias Down Despite 50-DMA Reclaim
Although the bounce following the $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2603(ESmain)$ sell signal was anticlimactic, the setup remains the same. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rally appears corrective, and despite the 50-DMA reclaim, the bearish SMT w/ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ keeps my bias down.I'm watching for a grind up to today's high and/or the 61.8% retrace to act as resistance before lower.A close below 6770 triggers a swing short, while a cross of 6720 confirms a flash crash to 6400. Bulls need a daily close above 6803 for a potential bullish shift. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on
SPX Trendline Break Sets Up High-Velocity Downside
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ just lost the 50-DMA.The $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2603(ESmain)$ sell signal triggered.CPI acts as the catalyst to escalate this wave. Expect a high-velocity collapse to 6400–6350.That move shatters the multi-year trendline (6550)—officially confirming the Bear Market. ES_F just lost critical support.The Daily FVG has officially inverted (iFVG).Combined with the bearish SMT, a high-conviction SELL SIGNAL has been triggered.The next wave down has begun -> targeting the Nov & Aug lows. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs.
$Rigetti Computing(RGTI)$ Short: Over 35% PROFIT and counting.We alerted this short at $35.60. Price is now crashing through $22.50.This wasn't a guess. It was a precise execution based on market structure and a confirmed Daily iFVG trigger. The setup is playing out flawlessly.Next stop: With a bearish 5-wave decline already in placeand now a 3-wave corrective bounce, the structure favors another leg down targeting the 50-61.8% extensions of the impulse at18-16.The Daily iFvG triggers that also coincides right at the break of the corrective parallel channel.The 30 swing high is unlikely to be crossed now to decline to those targets. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimite