Energy : A US Bear Market's Shield ?
@JC888:
For US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and pundits who uniformly said that “Moody’s downgrade of US debt rating” does not matter — Mon, 19 May 2025 kicked off with stocks and bonds, lower. According to Cumberland Advisor, Chief Investment officer, David Kotok: US’s deteriorating finances plays a role, but not a starring one. The estimation focuses on how much tariffs will erode corporate earnings. They may not be 100% spot-on but should be within a reasonable guessing range for starters. Kotok’s Estimations: Over next 12 months, the S&P 500 earnings per share will be reduced by -$30 from tariffs, taking current estimates of $260 down to $230. This estimate is under the assumption that there are no other protectionist policy changes. This number comes from data-modelling that convert a
