AfraSimon

    • AfraSimonAfraSimon
      ·03-01 12:21

      War Risk Rising: 7 Stocks That Could Benefit — LMT, RTX, NOC, GD, BA, XOM, ESLT

      Trump just started the war with Iran! 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 vs 🇮🇷 Here are 7️⃣ stocks most likely to benefit! 1/ $Lockheed Martin(LMT)$ Major US defense contractor producing fighter jets, missiles, and defense systems. The company will benefit because major conflicts drive higher US and allied defense spending, accelerating orders, replenishment of munitions, and long-term modernization contracts. It supplies the US. military with systems such as: - F-35 Lightning II fighter - Patriot PAC-3 missile interceptors - HIMARS rocket systems, - Aegis missile defense components, Additionally, Israel operates the F-35I “Adir,” F-16 variants, and uses Lockheed-produced components and interceptors. Crucially, $LMT supplies the Iron Dome’s Tamir and David’s Sling systems in i
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      War Risk Rising: 7 Stocks That Could Benefit — LMT, RTX, NOC, GD, BA, XOM, ESLT
    • AfraSimonAfraSimon
      ·02-28 13:59

      Zeta is an AI winner, not a SaaS loser!

      Some of you already know that 2026 has been brutal for Software-as-a-Service companies, as investors fear AI-driven disruption will lead to a slowdown in growth. $Zeta Global Holdings Corp.(ZETA)$ ’s stock was pulled down in this panic, being down 38% before earnings, from its January high. However, that didn’t make much sense, as the company doesn’t offer simple commoditized software on a per-seat subscription basis. Zeta is a clear AI winner, and the market is starting to accept this reality, as the stock has jumped over 20% since the Q4 2025 earnings release. Revenue $395M +25.4% vs $379M estimate. ADJ EBITDA $95M +35.7% vs $91M. ADJ EBIT $75M +40.7% vs $72M. ADJ EPS $0.28 +43% vs $0.23. GAAP Net income of $6.5M. FCF $61M +90% vs $49M. These we
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      Zeta is an AI winner, not a SaaS loser!
    • AfraSimonAfraSimon
      ·02-27

      Nu Q4 2025 Earnings Review - Excellent execution once again!

      Yesterday, $Nu Holdings Ltd.(NU)$ bank reported earnings, and they were again excellent, with the Brazilian fintech executing across all verticals. Total revenues +56.8% to $4.7B, beating the $4.5B estimate by 3.6%. Net income +62.6% to $898.5M. EPS +60.2%, meeting the estimate of $0.18. ARPU +40.2% to $15. Cost per ARPU remained stable at 80 cents. The number of customers increased by 4M, +14.7%, to 131M. Yet, the stock is down 6% in after-hours, so there was clearly something that the market didn’t like. After going through the results and listening to the earnings call, I believe I have identified 4 key reasons the stock is falling: 1. Regulatory headwind with secured loans in Brazil. 2. One-off cost in Mexico. 3. “Investment Year” guidance. 4. N
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      Nu Q4 2025 Earnings Review - Excellent execution once again!
    • AfraSimonAfraSimon
      ·02-27

      CRM is not cheap!

      $Salesforce.com(CRM)$ is not cheap! Just because it trades for the lowest P/FCF multiple ever at 12, doesn't mean it's a buy! 1) Historical multiples are backward-looking. There is a reason that CRM traded for 38x P/FCF in 2018. They were growing top-line at 25%, and EBIT margin was at 4%. There was a lot of potential for growth and margin expansion. 2) P/FCF is not actually 12, because SBC is 8.5% of revenues, about the same as in 2018. It was one thing to have SBC when you are growing at 25% and completely another when you can't crack 10%. 3) Adjusting for SBC, P/FCF is actually 16. SBC eats away 23% of FCF. 4) Acquisitions are stinkers, $58B of Goodwill - $8B for Informatica - $15.7B for Tableau - $27.7B for Slack The company doesn't have a reco
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      CRM is not cheap!
    • AfraSimonAfraSimon
      ·02-27

      APP Down 20% Overreaction or Rare AI Ad Compounder Opportunity?

      $AppLovin Corporation(APP)$ is down 20%+ 🔴 Yet, Growth is INCREDIBLE, Margins are out of this world, and Global TAM is $1T+. Here is my $APP Investment Thesis: 1/ What does $APP do? Listen to the CEO explain it. It is simple: “Half the money I spend on advertising is wasted, the trouble is, I don’t know which half.” $APP sells an answer to this old advertising dilemma. AppLovin is an AI-based advertising platform that's focused on mobile apps but is expanding to WEB and Streaming. 2/ AppDiscovery $APP AXON AI engine uses sophisticated AI models trained on billions of anonymized device interactions to find the best place for ads to maximise ROI. This service carefully analyses the advertised app and then uses AXON's predictive algorithms to help adv
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      APP Down 20% Overreaction or Rare AI Ad Compounder Opportunity?
    • AfraSimonAfraSimon
      ·02-26

      Iren Investment Thesis!

      By now, everyone and their grandmother knows that the world is experiencing a once-in-a-century AI-driven technological revolution. However, if we want AI to be able to do more than just create silly cat videos, it needs to be properly trained on lots of high-quality data. Furthermore, for this data to be processed, the world needs to build more data centers than it has ever built before! Researchers at McKinsey forecast that by 2030, data center capex will reach $7T and data center capacity will almost triple to 219 GW! To meet this insatiable demand for computing power, capacity will come from clever and previously overlooked places. And increasingly, a trend has emerged of bitcoin mining companies turning into AI data center businesses. For years, aspiring crypto entrepreneurs built eve
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      Iren Investment Thesis!
    • AfraSimonAfraSimon
      ·02-24

      My Moat Rankings

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      My Moat Rankings
    • AfraSimonAfraSimon
      ·02-24

      5️⃣ Undervalued Companies Under $5B Market Cap

      5️⃣ Undervalued Companies Under $5B Market Cap 1/ $DLocal Limited(DLO)$ $DLO provides payment solutions in 40+ emerging markets, enabling large enterprises to accept hundreds of local payment methods. - $4B Market Cap - $35.4B Payment Volumes - 149% Payment Volumes Retention - $222M EBITDA - $171M Net Income - FWD P/E 17 - Growing Volumes by 50%+, Revenues by 40%+, EPS by 60% 2/ $Zeta Global Holdings Corp.(ZETA)$ $ZETA is a marketing technology company that uses data and AI to help businesses acquire, retain, and grow customers through sophisticated digital campaigns. - $4B Market Cap - 180 $1M+ ARR Customers - 392 $100K-$1M ARR Customers - $64M EBITDA - $160M FCF - FWD P/FCF 18 - Growing Revenues with 20%
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      5️⃣ Undervalued Companies Under $5B Market Cap
    • AfraSimonAfraSimon
      ·02-24

      5 KPIs to Watch as $ZETA Reports Earnings

      $Zeta Global Holdings Corp.(ZETA)$ is releasing the earnings tomorrow! Here are 5️⃣ KPIs to watch! 1/ Scaled Customer Count In Q3 $ZETA grew total large customers by 20%. $1M+ ARR Customers by 25%. Any acceleration is welcome. 2/ Revenue Growth Analysts expect: - $379M - +20.5% Y/Y - +12.5% Q/Q 3/ GAAP Profitability Analysts expect: - $62M - +305% Y/Y - +16,000% Q/Q 4/ 2026 Guidance Analysts expect: - Revenue $1.73B +34.2% - EBITDA $383M +39.3% - Net Income $89M +324% - FCF $224M +42% A beat is a must! 5/ 2028 Guidance - Revenue $2.1B - ADJ EBITDA $525M - FCF $340M Investors would like to see $ZETA significantly increase the guidance to incorporate the Marigold acquisition and synergies. A 2029 Guidance would also be welcome. For SG users only, We
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      5 KPIs to Watch as $ZETA Reports Earnings
    • AfraSimonAfraSimon
      ·02-23

      My Stop-Loss Framework Explained Using SPY

      Plenty of different opinions on stop losses. Should you use a hard stop? mental stop? where do I place it? All good questions. I'll add *my opinion* to the mix. I'm primarily a swing trader. Most of my stops are mental nowadays. And If I do plan to stop out...it's in the last 10 minutes of the trading day or week. Here's why: Because I'm waiting for larger timeframe candle closes (fancy way of saying: how do the daily + weekly candles close?). So I typically won't stop out until I see a daily or weekly candle close below my level right at EOD. With the trickery, choppiness, and liquidity grabs of the current market, I often see my level broken, and then recovered (+ more, by EOD). Look at $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ below for example. Daily c
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      My Stop-Loss Framework Explained Using SPY
     
     
     
     

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