To The Moon

$MARA Holdings(MARA)$ is scheduled to release the four-quarter 2024 earnings result on 26 Feb 2024 after market close.

MARA is expected to post revenue of USD 187.11M for the four-quarter 2024, which is up 19.35% year-on-year (YOY).

The earnings per share is estimated to be $-0.13 down more than 90% YoY.

Mara Holdings (MARA) Last Positive Earnings Call Saw -44.95% Change Since

MARA last positive earnings call on 12 Nov 2024 gave investors a negative 44.95% change in the share price.

The earnings call highlighted significant achievements in terms of acquisitions, cost reductions, and revenue growth. The strategic expansion in Ohio and effective bitcoin holdings strategy underscore MARA's strong position.

However, challenges related to the global hash rate increase were noted. Overall, the positive aspects significantly outweigh the challenges.

Mara Holdings (MARA) Guidance On Cost Efficiency Maintenance

During MARA's Q3 2024 earnings call, the company provided detailed guidance on several key metrics and strategic initiatives. They announced the acquisition of 372 megawatts across three sites in Ohio, which includes two data centers with a combined capacity of 222 megawatts and a greenfield data center expected to add 150 megawatts. This expansion is set to increase MARA's total compute capacity by over 70% and will be fully energized by the end of 2025. The acquisitions were made at a cost of approximately $270,000 per megawatt, one of the lowest among peers.

MARA's total nameplate capacity has reached just under 1.5 gigawatts, with about 65% owned and operated by the company. Additionally, the company highlighted a significant increase in their bitcoin holdings, totaling over 27,000 BTC, and discussed their strategic approach to utilizing this asset for financial flexibility and potential yield generation.

MARA also emphasized their focus on reducing energy costs to near zero, leveraging on-site generation at a cost of approximately $0.01 per kilowatt-hour. The company remains committed to expanding its portfolio while maintaining cost efficiency and is poised to achieve a target hash rate of 50 exahash per second.

Key Metrics To Watch For MARA Q4 2024 Earnings

MARA potential Q4 2024 earnings results would cover critical metrics, industry dynamics, and strategic factors to watch.

Here are some of the key metrics I feel that investors might want to watch closely

Bitcoin Production & Operational Efficiency

MARA energized hash rate increased to 53.2 EH/s, a 15% improvement over November, while BTC production declined 2% to 890 BTC, primarily due to a slight decrease in luck.

MARAPool achieved an impressive annual hash rate growth of 168% in 2024, exceeding bitcoin's network growth rate of 49%.

In 2024, MARA acquired 22,065 BTC at an average price of $87,205 and mined an additional 9,457 BTC. MARA year-end BTC yield per diluted share was 62.7%. Overall, MARA now own a total of 44,893 BTC, valued at $4.2 billion based on a spot price of $93,354 per BTC.

As of December 31, 2024, MARA had 7,377 BTC loaned to third parties generating additional return for our stakeholders.

Hash Rate: MARA energized hash rate increased to 53.2 EH/s, a 15% improvement over November, while BTC production declined 2% to 890 BTC, primarily due to a slight decrease in luck.

Energy Cost per Bitcoin: We might need to watch this number and see if it is greater than $14,000. This is because post-halving economics (reduced block rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC) will pressure miners to maximize efficiency. Marathon’s ability to grow hash rate while lowering energy costs will determine its competitive edge.

Financial Performance

Revenue: it is directly tied to Bitcoin’s price and production volume, as we have seen MARA reported that they have produced 907 and 890 BTC respectively for Nov and Dec 2024.

With the Bitcoin prices seen rising to over $100,000 at one point, this could give us an idea of what the consensus estimate would look like as the consensus estimates will depend on BTC price projections. The cost of revenue per petahash has dropped by 18% from $45.2 to $37.1 per petahash per day, driven by strategic acquisitions and organic growth.

Gross Margin: Post-halving, margins could compress unless energy costs drop proportionally.

Net Income/Loss: this could be impacted by Bitcoin price volatility (impairment charges if BTC falls below book value) and operational leverage.

Operating Expenses: R&D and SG&A costs. Marathon has cut costs in 2023 (e.g., layoffs); further reductions would boost profitability.

In Q3, the global hash rate has increased significantly, leading to higher difficulty levels, which pose challenges despite MARA's revenue growth.

Marathon must prove it can maintain profitability even if Bitcoin’s price stagnates. Margins will depend on energy efficiency and operational discipline.

Bitcoin Holdings & Liquidity

BTC on Balance Sheet: In Q3 2024, MARA holds approximately 27,000 bitcoins, with an average cost of under $50,000 per bitcoin, reflecting a significant appreciation in value and providing financial flexibility. MARA held 44,893 bitcoin as of 31 December 2024, of which MARA acquired 22,065 BTC at an average price of $87,205.

Debt Management: MARA Holdings has a total shareholder equity of $2.9B and total debt of $618.7M, which brings its debt-to-equity ratio to 21.7%. Marathon’s $650M convertible notes (due 2026) could pressure liquidity if refinanced at higher rates.

A prolonged BTC bear market could force Marathon to liquidate holdings, eroding long-term upside. Strong liquidity and disciplined BTC sales (if any) are critical.

Strategic Initiatives & Industry Positioning

Renewable Energy Transition: Marathon’s shift to renewables (e.g., 270 MW Texas wind farm) reduces regulatory and ESG risks. MARA announced the addition of approximately 372 megawatts of owned and operated capacity across three sites in Ohio. This includes the acquisition of two data centers with a combined 222 megawatts of capacity and the development of a third greenfield data center, expected to add another 150 megawatts. Updates on green energy partnerships will matter.

Geographic Diversification: Expansion into energy-rich regions (e.g., Paraguay, UAE) to hedge against U.S. regulatory risks.

M&A Activity: MARA acquired assets at a multiple of approximately $270,000 per megawatt, one of the lowest disclosed multiples among larger publicly traded peers, demonstrating their ability to deliver accretive acquisitions. Potential acquisitions of distressed miners post-halving to boost hash rate cheaply.

Technology Upgrades: Adoption of next-gen mining rigs (e.g., Bitmain S21 Hydro) to improve efficiency. Marathon’s pivot to renewables and global expansion could lower costs and align with ESG trends, attracting institutional investors.

Macro & Competitive Risks

Bitcoin Price Volatility: A 20% drop in BTC price could wipe out ~$40M from Q4 revenue (assuming 4,000 BTC mined).

Regulatory Headwinds: U.S. energy policies (e.g., proposed 30% tax on crypto mining) or crackdowns on fossil-fuel-powered mining.

Competition: Rivals like $Riot Platforms(RIOT)$ and $CleanSpark, Inc.(CLSK)$ are aggressively expanding hash rate.

Marathon’s hash rate ranking (currently #2 in the U.S.) could slip without continued investment.

Guidance & Market Sentiment

What to Watch in the Earnings Call:

2025 Hash Rate Target: Will Marathon reaffirm its 35–40 EH/s goal? Delays could signal financing or operational issues.

Cost Reduction Roadmap: Management’s plan to achieve sub-$10,000/BTC energy costs post-halving.

Capital Allocation: Will Marathon prioritize debt reduction, share buybacks, or further hash rate growth?

Valuation & Stock Reaction Scenarios

Bull Case (Beat Expectations):

• BTC price >$60,000, production >4,500 BTC, and margin expansion.

• Stock could rally 20–30% on upgraded guidance.

Bear Case (Miss Expectations):

• BTC price <$40,000, production delays, and rising costs.

• Liquidity concerns could trigger a 15–25% sell-off.

Technical Analysis - Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

We are seeing MARA experiencing a sell-off before its earnings, which is indicating volatility when we get the earnings result on 26 Feb after market close.

The bears are now in control as MARA is trading way below the 12-EMA period and this is worrying as there might be further downside if Bitcoin cannot hold the $90,000 level.

Summary

What MARA Q4 2024 earnings call would need to demonstrate is the following factors:

1. Scalability: Progress toward 35+ EH/s hash rate.

2. Efficiency: Lower energy costs per BTC mined.

3. Financial Discipline: Reduced cash burn and prudent BTC sales.

4. Strategic Agility: Success in renewables and global expansion.

I would think MARA remain a high-risk, high-reward play, which could give long-term investors rewards, there might be volatility after the earnings call.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think MARA would be able to post a better EPS despite higher Bitcoin acquisition cost.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.