To The Moon

$ChargePoint Holdings Inc.(CHPT)$ would be reporting its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings result on 04 March 2024 after market close.

Market participants will be closely following the financial results of ChargePoint in the upcoming earnings, as we saw consensus estimate for the revenue is expected to be $101.65 million, that is a drop of 12.25% compared to same period one year ago.

The earnings per share is anticipated to come in at -$0.13 which mark an increase of around 30% compared to same period one year ago.

ChargePoint Holdings (CHPT) Last Positive Earnings Call Give A Negative Change Of 45.42% Instead

We saw though CHPT have a positive earnings call on 04 Dec 2024 but we saw a negative 45.42% change in the share price.

ChargePoint demonstrated strong revenue performance exceeding guidance, significant reductions in cash consumption, and expansion in strategic partnerships. However, challenges remain with a decline in network charging systems revenue and persistent issues in Europe. Overall, the company is optimistic about future growth driven by EV market trends and operational efficiencies.

We need to understand that CHPT faced a risk of delisting.

ChargePoint Holdings (CHPT) Guidance On Improved Strategic Initiatives

During the ChargePoint Q3 2025 earnings call, the company highlighted several key financial metrics and strategic progress. ChargePoint reported a revenue of $100 million, surpassing their guidance range of $85 million to $95 million, with non-GAAP gross margins steady at 26%. Operating expenses decreased to $59 million from $66 million in the prior quarter, contributing to a reduction in cash consumption to $24 million, a 64% decrease from Q1 2025. Subscription revenue increased by 19% year-over-year, totaling $36 million, while network charging systems revenue was $53 million. The company ended the quarter with $220 million in cash, maintaining a focus on cash management and operational excellence.

For Q4 2025, ChargePoint anticipates revenue between $95 million and $105 million, reflecting confidence in their strategic initiatives and market trends, including an expanding EV market and increased charger utilization. Looking ahead, ChargePoint aims for positive non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA in fiscal year 2026, driven by revenue growth and improvements in gross margins.

Factors That Would Affect ChargePoint (CHPT) Upcoming Earnings

One important factor we need to understand when looking at ChargePoint (CHPT) fiscal Q4 2025 earnings would be CHPT position in the competitive EV charging market.

CHPT has received the notice of a delisting risk so in the earnings I feel that we need to look at their execution on growth strategies, and macroeconomic trends.

Revenue Drivers

Hardware Sales (EV Chargers)

Growth Potential: Increased adoption of EVs in North America and Europe, supported by government incentives (e.g., U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, EU Green Deal), could drive demand for charging infrastructure. Commercial fleet electrification and partnerships with automakers (e.g., Mercedes-Benz, Volvo) may boost orders.

Risks: Supply chain bottlenecks (e.g., semiconductor shortages) or rising raw material costs (e.g., copper, lithium) could delay deployments and pressure margins.

Subscription/Software Revenue

Growth Potential: Recurring revenue from software subscriptions (network management, payment processing) could stabilize cash flow as ChargePoint expands its installed base. Higher-margin software growth is critical for long-term profitability.

In Q3, we saw ChargePoint reported Q3 revenue of $100 million, surpassing its guidance range of $85 million to $95 million.

Risks: Competition from Tesla’s Supercharger network and third-party platforms (e.g., Electrify America) may limit pricing power.

Network Utilization

Key Metric: Utilization rates of existing chargers will impact profitability. Urban expansion and workplace installations could drive consistent usage, while underutilized rural stations may drag returns.

Margins and Profitability

Gross Margins: Hardware sales typically have lower margins (~20-25%) compared to software (~60-70%). A shift toward software/services could improve overall margins, but the business remains hardware-heavy.

In Q3, we saw network charging systems revenue declined by 18% sequentially and 29% year-on-year, this could have an impact on CHPT revenue as well in Q4. Similarly, revenue from Europe remained challenging due to policy and incentive uncertainties, accounting for only 17% of total revenue.

Operating Costs: R&D spending (for next-gen chargers) and sales/marketing (to secure partnerships) may remain elevated, delaying breakeven. In Q3, the non-GAAP operating expenses down to $59 million in Q3, a 28% decrease year-on-year.

Cash Burn: ChargePoint’s liquidity position (~$400M as of late 2023) must sustain operations until profitability. Dilution risk exists if further capital raises are needed. In Q3, ChargePoint have show that cash consumption reduced to $24 million in Q3, a 64% decrease from Q1 of the same year, but question whether this reduction could continue remain important.

Strategic and Macro Factors

Regulatory Tailwinds: Government funding for EV infrastructure (e.g., NEVI program in the U.S.) could accelerate deployments. Delays in subsidy disbursement or policy shifts pose risks. Ongoing delays in fleet segment due to permitting and construction issues, although future capture is expected.

Competition: Tesla’s NACS standard dominance and aggressive pricing by rivals (e.g., EVgo, Blink) could pressure ChargePoint’s market share.

EV Adoption Trends: Slower-than-expected EV sales growth (e.g., due to high interest rates or consumer range anxiety) would reduce charging demand. In Q3, record EV sales in the U.S., up 11% year-over-year, indicating growing market demand and infrastructure utilization.

But with the tariffs on chinese EVs, would this potential reduction in EV sales mean that demand for CHPT services will reduce as well?

Global Expansion: Execution in Europe (a key growth market) faces challenges from entrenched players like Ionity and Allego. In Q3, there was notable expansions with partners like General Motors and IKEA, along with new installations at U.S. ports and collaborations with Energy Efficiency Pros.

ChargePoint Holdings (CHPT) Price Target

Based on 7 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for ChargePoint Holdings in the last 3 months. The average price target is $1.61 with a high forecast of $2.00 and a low forecast of $0.75. The average price target represents a 141.78% change from the last price of $0.67.

There might be a challenge for CHPT to show a stronger price target as investors would be watching this earnings closely, CHPT need a strong quarter catalyst to propel its share price to avoid the delisting.

Technical Analysis - Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

If we looked at the technical, CHPT is trading below the 12-EMA and showing a very bearish movement, but if we looked at how RSI is moving, there is a potential crossover of RSI over RSI MA, which could signal a bullish reversal.

This could help CHPT to make a gap up, so we might want to watch the share price movement today (03 Mar) to see how the investor sentiment might help to push the momentum higher.

Summary

ChargePoint remains a high-risk, high-reward play on the EV infrastructure buildout. While long-term growth drivers are intact, near-term profitability challenges and competitive pressures make the stock sensitive to quarterly execution.

CHPT stock has been volatile, reflecting skepticism about unprofitable EV infrastructure plays. Positive earnings surprises (e.g., margin improvement, strong guidance) could trigger short-term rallies. A miss on revenue or cash burn could trigger sell-offs, while margin expansion or partnership wins may revive optimism.

These are some of the key points I will be watching in the upcoming quarter earnings.

1. Execution in Commercial & Fleet Segments: High-margin deals with logistics firms or retailers.

2. Software Monetization: Scaling subscriptions to offset hardware volatility.

3. Macro Resilience: EV adoption momentum despite economic uncertainty.

Here are two scenarios which I think the share price might move. I will be watching and do a very quick trade because this stock might be delist anytime.

• Bull Case:

  Accelerating commercial deployments (fleets, retailers) and software adoption.

  Margin improvement from cost controls and higher software mix.

  Stronger-than-expected EV sales and subsidy tailwinds.

• Bear Case:

  Persistent hardware margin compression due to competition/pricing wars.

  Slower network utilization growth and cash burn concerns.

  Macro headwinds (recession, reduced EV incentives) dampen demand.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think CHPT could show a very strong earnings beat and avoid the fate of delisting?

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.