To The Moon

$Kanzhun Limited(BZ)$ is expected to report its quarterly earnings for Q4 2024 on 11 Mar 2025 before the market open.

Kanzhun is expected to report a 14.7% increase in revenue to CNY1.813 billion from CNY1.58 billion same period one year ago.

The consensus estimate for Kanzhun earnings per share is expected to come in at CNY1.54 per share or 22 cents per share.

Kanzhun (BZ) Positive Last Earnings Call Saw A 26.58% Change in Its Share Price Since

Since Kanzhun reported its positive earnings call on 11 Dec 2024, its share price have seen a 26.58% change since.

The earnings call reflected strong growth in revenue and user base, with strategic expansion in the blue-collar segment contributing positively. However, increased expenses and macroeconomic uncertainties present challenges. Despite these, the company's strategic investments and share repurchase program demonstrate confidence in long-term growth.

Kanzhun (BZ) Guidance On Its Reinvestment And Share Repurchase

During Kanzhun Limited's Q3 2024 earnings call, the company reported a revenue of RMB 1.91 billion, marking a 19% year-on-year increase, with a net income of RMB 460 million and an adjusted operating income of RMB 610 million, reflecting a 10% growth. The average monthly active users on the BOSS Zhipin app reached 58 million, a 30% year-on-year rise, while newly added verified users surpassed 40 million from January to September 2024. The number of newly posted job positions increased by 18% year-on-year, driven by user growth and market expansion. The total number of paid enterprise customers reached around 6 million, up 22% year-on-year, with a stable average revenue per user (ARPU).

The company continued to invest in technology, facilitating nearly 200 million monthly mutual achievements on its platform. Additionally, Kanzhun repurchased approximately USD 220 million worth of shares, representing 3.4% of its total shares, underscoring confidence in its long-term growth. For Q4 2024, the company expects revenues between RMB 1.795 billion and RMB 1.81 billion, translating to a year-on-year increase of 13.6% to 14.6%.

Key Drivers That Could Drive Kanzhun (BZ) Q4 2024 Earnings

Economic Conditions in China

Growth/Recovery: A rebound in China’s economy, particularly in sectors like tech, manufacturing, and services, could drive hiring demand, boosting Kanzhun’s platform usage.

In the blue-collar sector, the project Hailuo Conch saw a 45% quarter-on-quarter increase in enterprise participation and a 40% increase in signed contract value, with blue-collar business revenue contributing more than 38% of total revenue.

Youth Unemployment: High youth unemployment might increase job-seeker activity, but corporate hiring budgets could shrink, creating mixed effects on monetization.

Regulatory Environment

Stability in China’s tech regulations would favor operational continuity. Past crackdowns have targeted data security and monopolistic practices, so compliance is critical.

Company-Specific Initiatives

User Growth & Monetization: Expansion of premium services (e.g., advanced recruitment tools, AI-driven job matching) could enhance ARPU. Historical trends (e.g., Q3 2023) showing steady user growth would signal momentum.

In Q3, revenue for Q3 2024 reached RMB 1.91 billion, marking a 19% increase year-on-year. The net income was RMB 460 million. Average monthly active users reached 58 million, a 30% year-on-year increase. Newly added verified users from January to September 2024 exceeded 40 million.

The growth of the short-term paying ratio slowed down despite solid retention of enterprise users.

Cost Management: Efficiency in marketing and R&D spending (e.g., leveraging AI for scalability) may protect margins amid competitive pressures.

Operating costs and expenses increased by 23% year-on-year to RMB 1.3 billion. Marketing expenses during the Olympic Games and Euro Cup contributed to this rise.

The company repurchased USD 130 million worth of shares since the last earnings call, totaling USD 220 million for the year, representing 3.4% of total shares.

Competitive Landscape

Kanzhun’s ability to differentiate from rivals like Liepin or 51job through superior technology (e.g., AI algorithms for job matching) or user experience will be pivotal.

Technological Innovation

Investments in AI/ML for personalized job recommendations or employer analytics could improve engagement and retention, driving recurring revenue.

Market Sentiment & External Factors

US-China tensions or delisting concerns might impact stock performance but are less likely to directly affect operational earnings unless capital access is constrained.

The macroeconomic environment remains uncertain, affecting recruitment markets and potentially impacting revenue growth in 2025.

Kanzhun (BZ) Price Target

Based on 2 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for Kanzhun Ltd Sponsored in the last 3 months. The average price target is $17.25 with a high forecast of $18.50 and a low forecast of $16.00. The average price target represents a -3.42% change from the last price of $17.86.

Technical Analysis - Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

If we looked at how BZ have been trading last week, it demonstrated a strong momentum despite market selloff and correction.

RSI is showing strong momentum and reaching overbought region, the bulls have also managed to create a daily uptrend expansions since last Tuesday (04 Mar).

With China economy in recovery, we might see concentration in chinese based commerce company, I believe Kanzhun might be able to benefit from this stimulus recovery.

Summary

If Kanzhun sustains user growth, executes on monetization strategies (e.g., upselling premium features), and benefits from a stabilizing Chinese economy, Q4 2024 earnings could meet or exceed expectations. However, macroeconomic headwinds or regulatory shifts pose downside risks.

But we need to be aware of the risks that Kanzhun might faced. Here are some of the potential risks that could derail its earnings.

• Economic Slowdown: A contraction in hiring budgets could pressure revenue.

• Regulatory Surprises: New data or labor laws might increase compliance costs.

• Competition: Aggressive pricing by rivals could erode market share.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think Kanzhun earnings could get a boost from China economic stimulus and recovery.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.