Nasdaq 100 Erases YTD Declines: Bull Market Returns or a Beautiful Illusion?
US stocks are surging once again. $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ has returned to a technical bull market! The “Magnificent 7” added $830 billion in market cap in just one day. It seems the market has fully shaken off the pain caused by Trump’s early-April policy moves.
Don’t the past six weeks feel like a bad dream?
Following this weekend’s talks, most tariffs have been suspended.
Roberto Scholtes, Head of Strategy at Singular Bank, said U.S. equities are unlikely to revisit record highs in the short term. Even if a final deal is reached, companies will still suffer from the chaos and uncertainty of U.S. economic policy. “We bought the dip earlier,” he said. “Now we’re on pause—but also considering whether to trim positions on the rebound.”
Other investors believe the shift in market sentiment could be enough to spark a global rally.
Today, the first CPI report after the tariff decision landed smoothly—headline CPI came in below expectations, while core CPI matched forecasts. Traders have increased their expectations for Fed rate cuts, now betting on a first cut in September and a second one in October.
Now, Mag 7 are breaking out one by one, with $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ nearing $130.
Do you believe the bull market is truly back?
Or is this just a flash in the pan?
Has CPI acted as a shot of adrenaline for the bulls?
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Still, the momentum is strong. With traders expecting Fed rate cuts, liquidity could keep pushing stocks higher. NVIDIA’s run towards $130 shows AI optimism remains. This rally feels like a shot of adrenaline, but sharp rebounds often bring sharp pullbacks, so I’m staying careful.
I’m holding my positions but being disciplined. I bought the dip earlier, so this rally is a chance to review my portfolio and trim profits on overstretched names. Timing tops is hard, but a balanced approach—taking profits while holding core positions—feels safest now.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @TigerClub
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US stocks are surging once again. $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ has returned to a technical bull market! The “Magnificent 7” added $830 billion in market cap in just one day. It seems the market has fully shaken off the pain caused by Trump’s early-April policy moves.
Other investors believe the shift in market sentiment could be enough to spark a global rally.
Do you believe the bull market is truly back?
Or is this just a flash in the pan?
Has CPI acted as a shot of adrenaline for the bulls?
leave your comments to win tiger coins~
However caution needs to be exercised to determine if it is a short term rally as the macroeconomic conditions are still prevailing.
Either way, I will still take the long term perspective as I believe that the market will reward those who have patience to buy and hold great stocks like the Magnificent 7 over the long term.
As the late great Charlie Munger likes to say, The Big Money is not in the Buying and Selling but in the Waiting.
@Tiger_comments @Tiger_SG @TigerStars @CaptainTiger @TigerClub
First of all, this round of rebound is mainly concentrated on a few super heavyweight stocks. The three major sectors of AI, semiconductors, and cloud services have strongly driven the overall index. However, the performance of small and medium-sized market capitalization growth stocks is still sluggish, and the market breadth has not really recovered. What is even more alarming is that although the Federal Reserve hinted that it may cut interest rates within the year, inflation stickiness and employment resilience still make monetary policy uncertain, and the possibility of interest rates remaining high for a long time cannot be ignored.
From the perspective of corporate profitability, although the financial reports handed over by technology giants are eye-catching, they often rely on spending cuts, layoffs and AI bubble valuations. Whether the real performance growth is sustainable still needs time to verify.
In my opinion, the rebound of the Nasdaq has certainly boosted market confidence, but it is more like a technical repair under high valuations than the starting point of a comprehensive bull market. At this time, it is even more necessary to remain calm, use fundamentals as the anchor, and make cautious layout to avoid being carried away by the "illusion" of a short-term market rebound.
这轮行情的“催化剂”之一，确实是CPI数据。通胀放缓的迹象给了市场喘息的空间，投资者立即把它解读为美联储更接近降息的信号，尤其是高估值科技股，立刻得到“肾上腺素”加持。但也要冷静看清，通胀下降不代表风险全消，美联储态度依然偏谨慎，而地缘、政治与消费信心等变量仍在。
至于NVDA这波冲刺，它固然有基本面支撑，AI热潮也还没退烧，但估值已经越来越“贵”。现在进场的风险，和机会几乎是五五开。所以我现在更倾向于高位减仓、留些子弹，而不是追着热点跑。牛市要确认，得看后续是否能放量续涨，而不是一两只龙头拉动就盖章定论。
The two big boys will continue to fight and quarrel.. Today they sit together to eat duck and potato chips, next month will throw bones and chips at each other again.
And for the CPI, don't investors feel tired? Every month the same old theory.
Bull started