To The Moon

Greg Boland is the chief strategy officer for Tiger Brokers New Zealand.

People out and about enjoying the first day on Fieldays yesterday, during good times in the sector.CHRISTEL YARDLEY / WAIKATO TIMES

ANALYSIS: Fieldays this week is putting the agri sector at the forefront of conversation – dairy is booming, red meat exports are up, and farmers will benefit from the Investment Boost recently announced in the Budget. With this success in mind, let’s look at the performance of some of the major agricultural stocks in the US this year to date.

Of those with a market capitalisation above US$500 million, the world’s largest agricultural equipment maker, $Deere(DE)$ , is up 22% in the year to date (YTD). $Titan(TWI)$ , the maker of tyres and wheels for ag/off-road machines, is the leader YTD, up 37%. Vegetation and roadside equipment maker $Alamos(AGI)$ and irrigation systems and related infrastructure manufacturer $Lindsay(LNN)$ are both up more than 14%. $Toro Corp(TORO)$ , the irrigation, landscaping, turf mower maker, is the only one down YTD, having fallen 10%.

Data as of June 13th 2025

Several factors are likely contributing to strong performance in US agricultural stocks.

• Commodity price recovery and input cost stabilisation have improved profit margins for equipment manufacturers and service providers. Improved farm income has led to a new capital investment cycle, with farmers replacing aging equipment after a tough 2022-2024 period.

• Technology adoption and precision agriculture are driving demand for advanced machinery, particularly smart farming solutions from companies like $Deere(DE)$ .

• Weather-driven replacement demand has also boosted sales, with extreme events increasing investment in irrigation systems and specialist equipment.

• Additionally, export market recovery and infrastructure investments in climate resilience are creating tailwinds for the sector.

Markets

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ has bounced 24.9% since it hit an intra-day low of 4835 on 7 April. Large banks’ analysts are optimistic about the index, with 6200 to 6500 projected as their target by year-end.

BATMMAAN ( $Broadcom(AVGO)$ , $Apple(AAPL)$ , $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ , $Microsoft(MSFT)$ , $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ , $Amazon.com(AMZN)$, $Alphabet(GOOG)$, $NVIDIA(NVDA)$

The BATMMAAN stocks have seen a mixed performance year to date, as there is an increasing trend that they are not all rising and falling in unison as they did last year. Indeed, Meta is up 13% YTD and Microsoft up 13% YTD, while the laggards are Tesla and Apple, which are down 14% and 19% YTD.

Data as of June 13th 2025

• $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ ’s rally has been fuelled by robust earnings and ad recovery, transformative AI investments, particularly in Llama 4 and Meta AI, favourable analyst upgrades, and bullish technicals. Of the 72 analysts that research Meta, 89% have a Buy rating, 8% a Hold rating, and only 3% rate it a Sell.

• $Microsoft(MSFT)$ ’s Azure growth remained strong in early 2025, expanding 35% year-on-year, largely driven by adoption of AI, which is now embedded in Office, Windows, and GitHub, making Azure the platform of choice for enterprise AI deployments. Microsoft’s partnership with OpenAI also continues to be a differentiator. Of the 62 analysts that research Microsoft, 89% have a Buy rating, and 11% a Hold rating, while none see it as a Sell. Microsoft is also held by more US fund managers than any other stock.

• $Apple(AAPL)$ ’s decline in 2025 is due to lagging behind its competitors. At the WWDC 2025 this week, Apple delayed the launch of its revamped Siri until 2026, disappointing investors and triggering a sell-off on the news. Apple is the only individual company in Trump’s tariff crosshairs, with a 25% proposed tariff on iPhones assembled outside the US (which is all of them). Apple continues to face scrutiny from EU regulators over App Store practices, along with ongoing US antitrust lawsuits. Fifty-one analysts research the stock and 66% give it Buy, 25% Hold, and 8% Sell ratings.

• $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ CEO Elon Musk's leadership distractions (such as his departure from DOGE, involvement with X/SpaceX, and public break-up with Trump) continue to raise governance concerns among institutional investors about the future direction of the company. Global electric vehicle demand growth has slowed significantly, especially in China and Europe, where reduced subsidies have made EVs less attractive, pressuring sales volumes and margins. Its aggressive price-cutting across key markets to maintain volume has eroded profit margins, while Chinese EV makers like BYD, Nio, and Xiaomi are gaining market share with cheaper high-tech models. Forty-six percent out of fifty-five analysts rate Tesla with a Buy, 35% Hold, and 20% Sell.

Greg Boland, chief strategy officer for Tiger Brokers, kees an eye on the US markets.

In terms of what the options are telling us, at-the-money 30-day options on Meta are trading at an implied volatility of 27%, Microsoft at 16%, Apple at 26%, and Tesla at 61%. The key driver of individual stock options pricing is volatility.

Implied volatility is a forward-looking measure of how much the market expects an asset (like a stock, ETF, or index) to move over a given period. So, if you are considering buying a particular stock, look at its implied volatility to ascertain the market’s perceived risk of the stock’s price movement – clearly the expectation is many more ups and downs to come for Musk’s automotive and clean energy company, at least.

Disclaimer:

Investing or trading in financial instruments carries risks, including the risk of losing an amount in excess of your initial investment. This information is not financial advice and has been prepared without taking into consideration an individual investor's own objectives, financial situation or needs. Tiger Fintech (NZ) Limited and any of its directors, employees and associates may, from time to time, deal in any financial products mentioned (or derivatives of them), as principal or as agent for clients and may earn brokerage, fees, salary, bonus or other benefits for those dealings.