MP Materials ($MP) : Reclaiming its Peak !
$MP Materials Corp.(MP)$ has returned to the spotlight in 2025.
Its stock price surging back near historic highs as the US-China trade standoff on rare earth supply bottlenecks intensify.
The geopolitical landscape have directly fueled this recovery, making $MP a prime beneficiary in the current environment.
Quarterly Earnings.
For Q1 2025, MP Materials reported total revenue of $60.8 million, a +25% YoY increase. (see below)
Growth was driven by:
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Record production of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide, that rose +36% sequentially to 563 metric tons.
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Company’s magnetics division making its first metal deliveries, generating $5.2 million in revenue.
Despite these operational milestones, MP posted a net loss of -$22.6 million (or -$0.14 per share), mainly due to higher production costs and ongoing investments in ramping up midstream and downstream capabilities. (see below)
Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was -$2.7 million, reflecting the costs of scaling up advanced processing and magnet manufacturing.
Near Its Peak ?
After a prolonged period of volatility, MP’s share price has rebounded sharply in 2025. (see below)
MP's past 3 months movement
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As of 20 Jun 2025, MP closed at $37.74, marking a near doubling from its lows earlier in 2025.
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It is putting the stock within striking distance of its peak of $56.54 set in 01 Apr 2022.
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The recovery reflects renewed market confidence in MP’s strategic importance, especially as supply chain security becomes a national priority.
Geopolitical Tailwinds
Surge in MP is inseparable from the evolving US-China trade landscape.
Despite a tentative framework agreement reached in Switzerland and the UK in June 2025, the deal remains unsigned, and tariffs on both sides persist.
Trump’s administration has maintained a composite 55% tariff on most Chinese imports, while China has kept a 10% tariff on US goods, with both countries signaling that strategic materials and technology remain sticking points.
Most critically for MP, China’s December 2024 decision to ban exports of gallium, germanium, antimony, tungsten, and to tighten graphite controls has underscored the vulnerability of US supply chains.
These materials are essential for semiconductors, electronics, and defense systems, and the US remains heavily reliant on Chinese sources for refined rare earths and key inputs.
The US Geological Survey estimates a total Chinese ban on gallium and germanium could cost the US economy $3.4 billion, with the chip sector absorbing over 40% of the impact.
As A Beneficiary
As the only fully integrated rare earth producer in North America, MP Materials is uniquely positioned to benefit from the geopolitical shifts.
MP’s ability to ramp up NdPr oxide and magnet production has drawn intensifying engagement from both industry and government, with policy momentum now firmly behind reshoring critical mineral supply chains.
The spike in prices for metals like antimony—up 40% in the days following China’s export ban (see above), has further highlighted the value of MP’s domestic production capacity.
Looking Ahead
MP’s stock performance in 2025 reflects renewed confidence in its strategic importance, despite remaining challenges like (a) need to scale refining operations and (b) achieve consistent profitability.
The company’s quarterly earnings underscore both the opportunities and the costs of building a resilient US rare earths industry.
As trade talks continue and supply chain bottlenecks persist, MP Materials stands at the intersection of geopolitics, technology, and national security.
Its near-peak stock price is a testament to its pivotal role in the new era of resource competition.
Are you enticed by the possible +33.25% upside ride / potential profits back to the top ?
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