To The Moon

Fears of a counterstrike by Iran against US military bases came and went quickly.

It was reported that Iran even gave advanced warning of missiles it aimed at US’s largest base in Middle East.

Was this just a slap on the wrist as a sign to the world that Iran has delivered what it promised to do and that’s that ?

When it comes to politics, its always a guessing game - unlike the stock market, where reaction is immediate.

On Mon, 23 Jun 2025, when news broke that US’s Qatar military base was attacked but missiles were intercepted with no damages reported, Nasdaq soared.

Coupled with Trump announcing on Truth Social that a ceasefire would go into effect in 12 hours, after which the war would be considered "ended", further fuel market’s rally.

What was interesting though - there was neither confirm nor deny from the 2 countries involved. Ha ha ha.

By the time market called it a day:

• DJIA: +0.59% (+374.96 to 42,581.78).

• S&P 500:+0.96% (+57.33 to 6,025.17). Index snapped a 3-day losing streak.

• Nasdaq: +0.94% (+183.57 to 19.630.98)

With what looked like a de-escalation of Middle East tension, oil fell as quickly as they have risen.

WTI and Brent settle down -7.2% at $68.51 & $71.48 a barrel, respectively.

It’s a sharp reversal from Sunday night, when oil initially rose as much as -6.0% in response to US bombing of Iran’s nuclear sites.

Similarly, oil stocks traded lower on Monday too: (see above)

• $Exxon Mobil(XOM)$ fell by -2.59% (-$2.97) to $111.74 per share.

• $Chevron(CVX)$ fell by -1.77% (-2.65) to $146.86 per share.

• Both stocks are set to further correct when trading resumes on Tue, 24 Jun 2025.

What’s Next ?

On Tue, 24 Jun 2025, traders will be watching Fed chair - Jerome Powell as he speaks before the House Financial Services Committee and presents US central bank’s monetary policy report.

On Wed, 25 Jun 2025, he will go before the Senate Banking Committee on the same subject matter presentation.

HIs appearance on Capitol Hill comes at a pivotal time as he faces an aggressive push and verbal abuse, from White House to cut interest rates.

Interest Rate Cut !

In recent days, two Fed officials (Michelle Bowman & Christopher Waller) have said they could see a case for dialing back policy as early as July 2025.

Just for the record, both of them were appointed by Trump.

Their comments highlight a growing divide among Fed policymakers about the timing of potential rate cuts.

Fed Official - Bowman.

What is even more interesting is Bowman used to be known to be conservative in her approach.

Just last December, she dissented against a jumbo -0.50% interest cut in September 2024 due to her concerns that inflation was not yet under control.

What changed ?

Well, she was promoted to Vice Chair for Supervision of the Federal Reserve Board on 9 Jun 2025, under Trump’s 24 Mar 2025 recommendation.

Well, well, well, I guessed, there’s no free lunch in this world, is there ?

Latest Dot Plot.

Latest dot plot released on 19 Jun 2025

Actually, US central bank has made provisions for interest cuts in 2025, based on the latest dot plot. (see above)

• Policymakers still anticipate cutting rates by half a percentage point (-0.5%) in 2025.

• Just that, they have slowed the pace from there to just one quarter-percentage-point cut (-0.25%) in 2026 and 2027 respectively — in a protracted fight to return inflation to 2% target.

As an investor, I have no issues with interest cut because they will only serve to rally US market to new highs.

That is good for retail investors like you and me, no ? Ha, ha.

S&P Global US PMI - June 2025 (Prelim).

Coming back to this week’s US economic reports, Monday saw the release of S&P Global US PMI - preliminary readings for June 2025.

The latest manufacturing PMI showed manufacturing activity holding steady at “52”, unchanged from May 2025 final reading.

However, the report also highlighted a sharp acceleration in input and selling prices, reaching levels not seen since July 2022.

This as manufacturers passed higher costs from tariffs and other factors onto customers.

Report also suggests US economy continues to expand, but intensifying price pressures signal a renewed risk of higher inflation in the months ahead.

Could Jerome Powell be right about a creeping inflation, shared during last week’s FOMC post meeting conference where he sketched a modestly stagflationary vision of US economy, with growth in 2025 slowing to 1.4%, unemployment rising to 4.5%, and 2025’s inflation ending at 3%, well above the current level.

Other Economic Reports.

Below are other economic reports due this week (Jun 23 - 27):

• Tue, 24 Jun 2025 - US consumer confidence for June 2025.

• Wed, 25 Jun 2025 - New home sales.

• Thu, 26 Jun 2025 - US weekly jobless claims.

• Thu, 26 Jun 2025 - US GDP for Q1 2025 (2nd reading).

• Fri, 27 Jun 2025 - US consumer sentiments (final reading).

• Fri, 27 Jun 2025 - Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) for June 2025.

Quarterly Earnings.

There will be a handful of companies reporting their earnings as well.

• Tue, 24 Jun 2025 - $FedEx(FDX)$.

• Wed, 25 Jun 2025 - $Micron Technology(MU)$

• Wed, 25 Jun 2025 - Jefferies Financial Group (JEF)

• Thu, 26 Jun 2025 - Nike Inc(NKE).

Tesla Robotaxi Launched.

Despite a call by regulator to halt its robotaxi launch due to new set of rules coming out in September 2025, Tesla did right by investors and launch its long overdue robotaxi with little fanfare.

Ringfenced Launch.

Interesting facts surrounding the launch:

• The Austin, Texas robotaxis are Model Y SUVs equipped with Tesla’s latest FSD Unsupervised software and hardware.

• Robotaxi service (for now) is limited to invited users that have agreed to the terms & conditions of Tesla’s early access program.

• Curated invitees are mostly promoters of Tesla’s products, stock and CEO.

• For now, there fewer than 24 robotaxis on trial.

• It operates (i) during daylight hours and (ii) in good weather - only.

• Lastly, there is a human safety supervisor in the front passenger seat to assume control in case of emergency.

Lost Visions.

The launch is a far cry from Elon’s painted vision of robotaxi:

• In 2015, Musk swore that Tesla EVs would achieve “full autonomy” within 3 years.

• In 2016, Musk said his Tesla EV would make a cross-country drive without human intervention before end of 2017.

• In 2019, on a call with institutional investors that helped raise more than $2 billion, Musk said Tesla would have 1 million robotaxi-ready vehicles on the road in 2020, able to complete 100 hours of driving work per week each, making money for their EV owners.

None of the above happened.

In spite of the glaring shortchanges:

• Investors were relief that the launch took place and the stock rallied. (see above)

• TSLA rose by +8.32% (+$25.52) to close the day at $348.68 per share.

• Technically, TSLA is above its 20-day moving average (ma) marginally and below its 50-day and 200-day ma respectively.

• With a RSI reading of “51.31”, TSLA is in a neutral zone - neither overbought nor oversold.

Bad News !

In less than one day of operations, issues about TSLA robotaxi have surfaced: (see below)

• In the videos shared widely online, one robotaxi was spotted traveling the wrong way down a road.

• In a separate online video, Tesla Model Y did a hard brake, in the middle of traffic. This was in response to “stationary police vehicles outside its driving path”, this and among several other examples.

Tesla, (a) VP, Vehicle Engineering, Lars Moravy and (b) Regulatory counsel Casey Blaine did not respond to a request for comment.

But a spokesperson for US regulator NHTSA confirmed in an e-mail reply that the agency is aware of the referenced incidents and is in contact with TSLA to gather additional information.

Will Tesla robotaxi be able to catch up to Waymo’s standards of autonomous driving? Place your bets !

Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks.

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• MP Materials ($MP) : Reclaiming its Peak ! Tue, 24 June. Picked post.

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• Do you think Fed chair Jerome Powell will succumb to Capitol HIll pressure to cut interest rates ?

• Do you think Tesla will hit the $400 target again ?

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