TSLA Q3 Delivery Sparks a Rally to $500 ?

JC888
10-03

Falling Sales.

September is the last month of Q3 2025 before corporate earnings season returns.

For the past week, there have news articles on $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ falling sales in Europe : (see below)

(1) EU / UK.

  • In France (#3), sales was down by -47.3% while overall car market grew by +2.2%.

  • In Sweden (#6), registration fell by more than -84% where EV sales were flat and overall market was up +6%.

  • In Denmark (#9), Tesla sales fell by -42%.

  • UK - Tesla’s #2 (market by sales in 2023 & 2024) have seen sales plummeted by -60% YoY in July 2025.

(2) China.

It is a similar tune in China — TSLA’s 2nd biggest market. (see below)

Tesla’s sales in China are down -6.3% YTD based on insurance registration data compared to 2024.

Above chart clearly documents, the green line (2025 monthly sales) is perpetually trailing (below) the orange line (2024 monthly sales).

(3) Turkey August’s Freak Sales.

On 02 Sep 2025, it was reported that Tesla’s EV sales for August 2025 have surged to unprecedented levels in Turkey.

The US car maker delivered nearly as many EVs as it did across the entire European market.

This one-off achievement was a result of software-locking the base Model Y RWD to just 160 kW of power to qualify for the lower consumption tax rate (ÖTV) of 10%.

For that, the devious car maker sold 8,730 Model Y EVs.

In July 2025, the Turkish government has the loophole by raising the base tax rate to 25% by the end of the July, while honouring the preferential rate if EV buyers have an invoice before new rates took effect.

Is this sufficient to offset the YTD -40% fall in EU sales ? What about Q4 ? For current Q3 quarter, if falling sales hold true, what is going to happen to Tesla ?

2025 Recap - Deliveries & Earnings.

To be able to accurately second guess Tesla’s fate in Q3 2025, a recap of what have transpired in 2025 (so far) is in order.

This allows an apple-to-apple comparison quickly, when Q3 results are out.

Q1 2025.

  • Delivery: 336,681 EVs were delivered vs Q1 2024’s 386,810; that was a -12.96% YoY decline.

  • Earnings per share (adjusted): was $0.27 vs $0.39 expected vs Q1 2024’s $0.45.

  • Revenue: was $19.34 billion vs $21.11 billion expected vs Q1 2024’s $21.30 billion; that’s a -9.20% YoY decline.

Q2 2025

  • Delivery: 384,122 EVs were delivered vs Q2 2024’s 443,956; that was a -13.48% YoY slide.

  • Earnings per share (adjusted): came in at $0.40 vs $0.43 expected vs Q2 2024’s $0.52; that’s a -23.07% YoY decline.

  • Revenue : was $22.50 billion vs $22.74 billion expected vs Q2 2024’s $25.50 billion; that’s a -11.76% YoY decrease.

Q3 2025 - so far.

Tesla will likely announce its Q3 2025 delivery figures within the first few days of October 2025.

It has been their practice before official earnings call, that is usually in late October. 

US sales data is unavailable.

Therefore, looking at China deliveries for July & August 2025, is the nearest indication of how Tesla is faring so far for Q3 2025. (see below)

  • For July 2025, Tesla sold 67,886 vehicles (inclusive of export) vs July 2024’s 74,117; that’s a -8.41% YoY decline.

  • For August 2025, Tesla sold 83,192 vehicles (inclusive of exports) vs August 2024’s 86,697 units; that’s a -4.04% YoY decrease.

  • For September 2025, Tesla domestic China sales averages 60,300 vehicles sold so far; while export numbers are unavailable. (see below)

With China being the 2nd largest market for Tesla after US, it is not too far-fetch to expect overall Tesla’s Q3 deliveries to continue to slump between -5% to -10% conservatively.

Having said that, some analysts have argued that Q3 “might” be a turning point for Tesla deliveries.

This is because:

  • There might be a last-minute rush to make use of US federal tax incentive of $7,500 before it expires on 30 Sep 2025.

  • Historically, Q3 has always been a boom quarter for Tesla.

Taking all above factors into considerations, analysts are fairly certain that Tesla EV sales in Q3:

  • Will beat Q1 deliveries is high

  • Whether it will exceed Q2 deliveries is less certain.

Other Revenue Sources.

  • Apart from EV sales, TSLA’s has 2 other revenue sources, (a) services + other and (b) energy generation + storage.

  • Revenue growth from these two sources’ have plateau in past few quarters. (see above)

  • Therefore, there should not be any upside surprise to TSLA’s total revenue

Stock Price Resilience.

Many economies have adopted the definition of “recession” as 2 consecutive quarters of falling real Gross domestic product (GDP)

Yet, when it comes to Tesla, despite missing delivery forecasts in 2025, both Q1 and Q2, its stock price has on a run recently and YTD, it has gained +17.25%. (see below)

Many have attributed it likely due to its (a) strong brand, (b) market share, and (c) investor belief in long-term growth.

Hypothetically.

(1) Misses forecasts for 3rd consecutive quarter:

  • Repeated underperformance will erode investor confidence, when coupled with market share losses and persistent negative news from key markets like Europe.

  • Investor sentiment could sour, triggering a sharp stock correction.

(2) Meets / Exceeds forecasts:

Conversely, should Tesla manage a quarter-end surge and meet / beat expectations, it could:

  • Maintain or restore its market dominance, (at least temporarily).

  • Stock price may surge to 52-week high level again.

The next few weeks will be pivotal for both sales performance and market sentiment.

Up To Old Tricks Again.

Even before the dust has settled that TSLA’s robotaxi is a success story and will contribute towards TSLA’s revenue, the snake-oil salesman is on to his next marketing poly.

This is because he understands the concept of “there is no bad publicity”. (see below)

In his Mon, 01 Sep 2025 post on “X” (former Twitter):

  • He hypothesized that his humanoid robot - Optimus, will eventually accounts for 80% of TSLA’s value.

  • Insisted that TSLA will be building between 500,000 - 1 million Optimus by end of 2027.

  • Projected that by 2040, there will be more humanoid robots on Earth than human beings.

Latest update from Teslarati dated 27 Sep 2025:

  • Tesla has plans for an annual production run-rate of 1 million Optimus by 2030

  • In early 2025, the plan was to build 5,000 in 2025 alone. No updates on this now..

  • Mr CEO has said Optimus should make up roughly 80% of Tesla’s value.

Did you notice the stealth shifting of 1 million Optimus from 2027 to 2030 ? Ha, Ha, Ha. Then again its Musk who has never been punctual with timeline & targets.

Just for the record.

In mid-2024, Musk predicted that Optimus robots would someday turn TSLA into a $25 trillion company, that was equal to more than half of the entire value of the S&P 500 at the time of his comment.

Isn’t this uncannily similar to what Cathie Woods says about Tesla’s valuation ? Ha, ha, ha.

During recent July 2025 Q2 earnings conference, Mr CEO self-declared that “Tesla is by far the best in the world at real-world AI”.

The issue for Tesla is that it is trailing behind in those “key concepts” markets.

Robotaxi.

  • Tesla has only recently started tests in Austin, Texas, and San Francisco under strict conditions of (a) still with a seated “driver” ready to intervene, (b) still opened to selected people, (c) still operating at certain hours and (d) still under certain weather only.

  • $Alphabet(GOOG)$ Waymo is live in numerous markets and reached 10 million paid trips in May 2025.

  • In China, Baidu’s Apollo Go is live.

Humanoid Robots

  • Competition in humanoid robots is coming from Chinese companies eg. Unitree, that have won multiple medals at the World Humanoid Robot Games.

  • Others in the space include (a) Boston Dynamics, (b) Agility Robotics, (c) Apptronik, (d) 1X and (e) Figure.

  • In Tesla Diners, the Optimus Musk has deployed to help out at the pop corn station, broke down on the first day of operations.

  • What Musk also failed to tell the public is TSLA recently lost the person running the humanoid division.

  • Milan Kovac, VP of Optimus robotics, announced his departure in June 2025, after 9 years at TSLA.

Will a “failure to launch” product like Optimus, combined with “not autonomous” Robotaxi, be what finally breaks investor confidence in Tesla?

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  • Do you think Tesla will be able to break through and hit the $500 per share mark ’?

  • Do you think Tesla’s robotaxi is a success vs Waymo, what about its Optimus robot?

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