To The Moon

It’s coming to 2 weeks since US government shutdown ended.

On Wed, 12 Nov 2025, Trump signed the bipartisan funding bill that reopened the government and extended funding thru 30 Jan 2026.

Effectively kicking the budget-bucket further down the road instead of addressing it heads on.

With that, US economic reporting resumed, showing actual state of the US economy.

Many believe these negative reports all played a role to further dampen US market sentiments, kickstarted by (a) Softbank, (b) Michael Burry and (c) Peter Thiel.

Jobless Claims.

(a) Weekly claims.

For the week ended 15 Nov 2025, weekly initial claims fell by -8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 220,000 claims. (see above)

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 230,000 claims for the latest week.

Note that latest claims data covered the period during which US government would have surveyed business establishments for November 2025 nonfarm payrolls.

(b) Continuing claims.

For week ended 08 Nov 2025, US continuing claims increased by +28,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.974 million. (see above)

This is the highest level seen in about 4 years.

Rise in continuing claims more than offset fall in weekly claims, effectively adding to US unemployment pool, with a growing number of workers struggling to find new jobs and remain on benefits longer.

It highlights softness in US labour market, amid high-profile layoff announcements from a host of blue-chip companies (ie. AMZN, MSFT, META).

US Non-Farm Payroll.

On 20 Nov 2025, US non-farm payroll for September 2025 was finally released.

After falling jobs number in the prior 2 months, US employment growth accelerated in September to 119,000.

Statistically, there is no reason to rejoice because US labour market “actuals” is still weak.

One only need to look at past 2 years jobs reports to know. (see below)

US non-farm payroll Jan 2024 - Nov 2025

At the same time, US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) confirmed that they will skip /cancel US October 2025 jobs report due to recent US government shutdown prevented data collection for the household survey.

On 16 Dec 2025, the November non-farm payroll report will include October's data.

US Unemployment Rate.

Like the US jobs report, US unemployment report for September 2025 was also released on 20 Nov 2025.

US unemployment rate rose to 4.4% for the month, up from August 2025’s 4.3%.

Officially marking the highest level of unemployment since October 2021.

With BLS confirmed skipping the October jobs report, we will never know what is US unemployment rate for October 2025.

The hanging question is will there be bombastic-surprise to US unemployment come 16 Dec 2025 when the latest data is released ?

US Consumer Sentiment.

On Fri, 21 Nov 2025, the final November 2025 report for US Consumer Sentiments was released.

The University of Michigan's headline index dropping -2.6 points to 51, a near-record low, just marginally above the lowest reading of 50, in June 2022.

It is a notable plunge from 71.8 a year ago during ex-President Biden term of government.

US Flash S&P Services PMI.

• On 21 Nov 2025, preliminary S&P Global flash US Services PMI (for November 2025) was released.

• It rose by +0.2 to 55.0, from October 2025’s 54.8.

• The service sector continued to lead the upturn, reporting its (a) strongest output gain since July 2025 and (b) largest rise in new business so far in 2025.

• The uptick reflects robust demand & business confidence, supported by expectations of interest rate cut in coming month.

US Flash S&P Manufacturing PMI.

• S&P US Flash Manufacturing PMI “preliminary’ report for November 2025, was also released on the same day.

• It fell to 51.9, the lowest level in 4 months, down from October 2024’s 52.5.

• It is clearly indicating a slowdown in factory activity despite remaining in expansion territory.

• New order book growth weakened from October’s strong reading and therefore weighed on the PMI.

• The slowdown in factory activity has been fueled by higher prices due to tariffs imposed under Trump's onshoring policy.

• Although Trump’s aim to revive domestic manufacturing by discouraging imports, (a) persistent inventories buildup and (b) softening demand suggest Trump policy’s success has been limited.

US Market Cont’d To Consolidate ?

Looking at all the reports above, the data portrays a US economy struggling with "stagflationary" symptoms, where :

• Growth is slowing in the labour market.

• Consumer confidence is collapsing.

• Business activity and Input prices remain elevated.

For the coming week, US market is entering a shortened Thanksgiving holiday week:

• Market to close on Thu, 27 Nov 2025.

• Market to close (half day) on Fri, 28 Nov 2025 afternoon.

Therefore, expect the following behavior:

(1) Volatility on Low Volume.

• Trading Tone: Expect choppy, directionless trading as traders away for the holiday, liquidity will be thin, where small pieces of news could cause outsized moves.

• US market will struggle to pick a lane.

(2) Sector-Specific Rotations.

As of 21 Nov 2025

Consumer Discretionary (Weakness):

• Retailers and consumer goods stocks will likely underperform.

• Recent released Consumer Sentiment report casts a shadow over upcoming Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales projections.

• Investors may sell retail stocks ahead of the holiday shopping data. (see above)

• This could include $Amazon.com(AMZN)$, $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ & $Alibaba(BABA)$.

As of 21 Nov 2025

Tech & Services :

• The strong Services PMI supports tech and software companies.

• Suggesting enterprise demand remains healthy even if the consumer is tapping out.

• Latest XLK shows slight ‘rise’ in the closing week of 17 Nov 2025. (see above)

• Market will be watching over $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ hoping for it to stablize and recover.

Like me, will you avoid making large new bets until after Thanksgiving holiday, when focus will shift to the December’s Fed decision and subsequent inflation reports ?

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