Can MU Sustain the Rally? Too Late To Bet on Memory Stocks?
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ opened higher on Micron’s explosive earnings report, but quickly gave back some gains, as investors remain cautious ahead of the Bank of Japan’s rate decision on Friday. $Micron Technology(MU)$ itself jumped as much as 16% at the open before settling around +13%. Regardless, Micron was clearly the standout performer of the session.
Micron delivered a clean beat: revenue, profits, cash flow, and profitability all exceeded expectations.
EPS: $4.78; Revenue: $13.64B, up 57% year-over-year.
Q2 outlook: EPS: $8.42; Revenue: $18.7B — record highs
Growth driven by AI-led demand for memory and storage
Net income came in at $5.48B, up 58% quarter-over-quarter and 135% year-over-year.
Gross margin surged to 56%, a 12 percentage point jump QoQ, far above the market’s 51% expectation.
Looking ahead, Micron guided next-quarter revenue to $18.3B–$19.1B, versus consensus of just $14.4B. Adjusted EPS guidance was raised to $8.22–$8.62, nearly 80% above the market’s $4.71 estimate.
Even more striking, Micron expects forward 12-month EPS to reach $23.63, compared with $7.73 over the past 12 months — a near 3x increase.
Most importantly, cash flow is now running well above net income, a critical signal of earnings quality. Taken together, these hard numbers strongly suggest that Micron may be one of the least “bubble-like” AI earnings stories in the market.
Is this breaking the AI bubble narrative and ushering in Micron’s “Nvidia moment”?
On the earnings call, management repeatedly emphasized that the memory industry is facing a severe and persistent supply–demand imbalance, with no near-term solution. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra stated plainly:
“We believe that, for the foreseeable future, total industry supply will remain well below demand.”
He expects the tight supply environment to persist through 2026 and beyond. During the Q&A, he added a quantitative detail:
“Over the medium term, we can only meet about 50% to two-thirds of demand for certain key customers.”
Just days ago, Micron formally notified partners that starting January 1, 2026, order modification lead times will be extended from 30 days to 90 days. More importantly, any orders scheduled for delivery in 2026 will be treated as non-cancelable, non-price-adjustable, and non-reschedulable by default.
In simple terms: from next year onward, changing orders will be nearly impossible. So the big questions remain:
Is this the “Nvidia moment” for Micron — or for the memory sector as a whole? $NVIDIA(NVDA)$
How long can this supply–demand imbalance really last?
And is it already too late to get on board memory stocks now?
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EPS：$4.78;收入：$13.64 B，上漲同比57%.
第二季度展望：每股收益：$8.42;收入：$18.7 B-歷史新高
人工智能主導的內存和存儲需求推動增長
淨利潤爲$54.8億，向上環比增長58%和同比135%.
毛利率激增至56%，一個環比躍升12個百分點，遠高於市場51%的預期。
Micron did not just beat expectations, it shattered them. With Q1 26 revenue at USD 13.64 billion vs USD 12.83 billion expected & EPS of USD 4.78 vs USD 3.95 forecasted, Micron proved that it is not just riding the AI wave. It is steering it. Its Q2 guidance of USD 18.7 billion far exceeded expectations, and sent shockwaves through Wall Street, igniting fresh optimism.
Micron did not just deliver earnings, it delivered momentum, meaning and market magic. In a week where doubt lingered, Micron became the standout performer!
The bears had their moments but Micron reminded us that Bulls run faster when fueled by innovation.
The Santa Rally is truly back on track for a stunning finish to 2025!
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @TigerClub @CaptainTiger
2.current forecasts for memory demand indicate tight supply for first half of 2026. While it is possible that this could continue throughout 2026 and into 2027.
3 this supply demand imbalance is due to orders for memory for new data centres which are planned for deployment over 2026 and 2027. Further data centre demand is critical to future performance of $Micron Technology(MU)$
Is this Micron’s “Nvidia moment”? Not a perfect parallel, but the comparison is increasingly valid. Nvidia re-rated when AI demand proved structural, and Micron may be nearing a similar point. Management’s comments about meeting only 50–66% of demand and locking in non-cancelable 2026 orders signal real scarcity and pricing power.
That said, it’s not risk-free or clearly “too late.” Valuations have moved, but earnings expectations may still be conservative if supply remains tight. For me, the key is whether the market stops viewing memory as cyclical and starts valuing it as core AI infrastructure — if so, Micron’s upside could extend beyond a single quarter.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars