Nvidia Earnings: Valuation at 5-Year Low! Can Nvidia Break "Earnings Curse"?
Tomorrow after the close, $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ will report earnings.
On one side, Wall Street’s ever-rising expectations; on the other, macro geopolitical tensions, renewed tariff noise tied to Trump, and growing market anxiety over whether AI spending can stay this hot into 2027.
1. Earnings Expectations: Good News May No Longer Be Enough
Current consensus puts Q4 revenue around $57 billion, with data center expectations the most aggressive — analysts have lifted forecasts from about $52.7B six months ago to roughly $60.1B now.
Recently, even when Nvidia beats expectations, the stock hasn’t reacted strongly. Once “surprise” becomes standard, marginal impact declines. Options pricing currently implies about a ~6% move this week — in either direction.
2. Valuation Debate: Bargain or Value Trap?
Nvidia’s forward P/E is now below 24x — not only below its 5-year average (~38x) but close to the lowest level in five years.
For a stock once widely labeled “expensive,” it now arguably looks relatively cheap among mega-cap tech. If tomorrow’s guidance is solid, this valuation compression could become the trigger for fresh buying.
3. The “2027 Anxiety”: Is the Moat Still Intact?
Market concerns are focused on two main questions:
1. Can Big Tech Keep Spending? Microsoft, Google, and other hyperscalers are investing aggressively in 2026, but their cash flow outlook for 2027 looks less certain.
2. Beyond $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$, major tech players are developing in-house inference chips to reduce reliance on Nvidia. Current stock weakness partly reflects pricing in this potential competition risk.
But the good news is Nvidia has been trading in low range.
More than revenue numbers, we should watch how Jensen Huang frames the post-Blackwell roadmap. He needs hard data showing that even with in-house chips, Nvidia maintains dominance in AI inference.
If Jensen successfully reinforces the “inference leadership” narrative — combined with today’s compressed valuation — Nvidia could have room to restart its uptrend.
Is Tomorrow Nvidia’s Breakthrough Moment or a Trial by Fire?
With NVDA trading around $190, where do you think the stock goes?
A. Bullish Breakout — Toward $200
Blackwell shipments exceed expectations, Jensen silences doubters with strong dominance data, and the second leg of the AI bull market begins.
B. Sell-the-News Pullback — Toward $180
Solid earnings, but enthusiasm fades amid macro risks and profit-taking; institutions lock in gains and the stock searches for near-term support.
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“2027年焦虑”是真实的，尤其是面对超大规模资本支出问题和来自AMD的竞争。尽管如此，英伟达的生态系统和推理领导地位并不容易被取代。如果布莱克威尔出货量和指引强劲，情绪可能会迅速转变。詹森对后布莱克威尔路线图的基调将和数字一样重要。
我选择看涨突破。随着估值的压缩，稳健的执行可能会重新点燃向180-200美元区间的势头。在我看来，风险回报现在更倾向于惊喜而不是失望。
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerClub
While the long-term outlook remains overwhelmingly bullish with a path to $200+ driven by Blackwell, the short-term risk of a Sell-the-News pullback to $180 is high if the earnings report doesn't provide a massive "beat and raise" that overcomes the current mechanical market pressures.
NVDA’s record-breaking results show that even good news may no longer be enough to satisfy lofty earnings expectations; this price action intensifies the valuation debate of bargain or value trap, especially as “2027 Anxiety” persists over whether the moat is intact amid rising competition and shifting market conditions
If Blackwell shipments exceed expectations, Jensen silences doubters with strong AI dominance data, and the second leg of the AI bull market begins, likely leading to a bullish breakout toward $200
Even with solid earnings, but enthusiasm fades amid broader macro risks and profit-taking, with institutions locking in gains and the stock searches for near-term support, likely resulting in a Sell-the-News pullback toward $180
Ultimately, NVDA’s next move hinges on growth momentum versus macro risks, with potential for upside or a near-term pullback。。。
Why? The "Invisible" demand: While the bears talk about the Capex fatigue, Meta, Microsoft & Google are currently in an AI race where the cost of NOT buying Blackwell chips, is far higher than the price of the chips themselves.
Since beating expectations is now the baseline, the direction will be determined by guidance, not just results.
If Jensen Huang confirms that Blackwell Ultra shipments are exceeding the already massive demand, the 2nd leg of AI bull market begins.
Wall Street expects USD 71.1 billion in revenue for next quarter. If NVIDIA guides towards USD 74 billion+, the stock may shatter the USD 195 resistance & aim for all time high.
I expect Fireworks from NVIDIA today.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerClub
A.看涨突破