⚡ Oil's Wild Ride: Surge Then Slump on Supply Hopes
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Weekly Five Key Areas: Macro, Singapore Stocks, Options, Futures, Earnings
Covering five major market segments this week to help you stay ahead of market trends and plan your trades effectively!
✨Tuesday — Singapore Stocks
Singapore stocks opened sharply higher on Tuesday, with the STI surging 1.52%. ProNex, SATS, Keppel, CityDev and DBS rose around 2%, while OCBC, Genting Singapore and SIA gained over 1%.
Great Eastern appointed OCBC director Andrew Khoo as its new chairman. Suntec Reit's manager received regulatory approval for acquisition by Gordon Tang's firm. Intraco's subsidiary faced force majeure from a major supplier due to Middle East conflict.
Singapore's Q2 hiring sentiment improved to 24% net outlook, with 45% of firms planning to increase headcount. The escalating Middle East conflict threatens Singapore's petrochemical sector, with two companies declaring force majeure and oil prices exceeding US$100/barrel.
📌【Today’s Question】
Oil prices are like a rollercoaster. Share your thoughts on oil and precious metal prices in the comments section.
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1. Oil: The "Trump Discount" vs. Supply Reality
Recent Slump: Crude prices (Brent) plunged over 6% on March 10, 2026, hitting ~$92 after Trump’s remarks that Middle East conflicts could end "very soon."
Volatility Drivers: Just days prior, oil flirted with $120 due to fears of the Strait of Hormuz closing. The market is now pricing in a potential de-escalation led by U.S. intervention.
Outlook: If Trump successfully brokers a deal or eases sanctions on Russia/Venezuela, oil could stabilize in the $80–$90 range. However, any actual strike on oil infrastructure would likely trigger an immediate spike back above $110.
Gold:
Prices hit a peak near $5,400/oz in early March due to war fears but retraced to ~$5,000 as the dollar strengthened.
Major banks like J.P. Morgan and UBS remain bullish, with year-end targets ranging from $6,300 to $7,200, citing central bank buying and long-term inflation hedging.
Silver:
Silver remains more volatile, oscillating between $80 and $100.
Beyond "safe-haven" status, silver is supported by a 5-year supply deficit driven by massive demand in solar panels and AI data center hardware.
3. Strategy: How to Play the Swing?
Gold as a "Stabilizer": Analysts suggest keeping 5-15% of a portfolio in gold/silver to buffer against "black swan" geopolitical events.
Avoid "Chasing": Given the TACO effect (prices crashing on a single tweet), avoid buying into massive daily spikes; wait for the "Trump-induced" dips to enter long-term positions.
Watch the USD: If Trump’s policies lead to higher interest rates(to fight inflation).
However, I am convinced that defence, aerospace, etc., will still have some room to grow, with the need to replenish stockpiles, sell to allies to update their defenses, and pivot harder into cheap attack drones as the next chapter of military strategy.
Singapore stocks broadly performed well, with the STI up 1.52%, but SIA stands out. Its operational resilience and improving Q2 hiring sentiment suggest confidence could return quickly. While high oil prices pressure some sectors, SIA’s overcorrection creates a selective entry opportunity.
For me, this means building positions gradually while monitoring geopolitical developments and oil prices. If tensions ease, SIA could rebound sharply, rewarding those who positioned early, and I’ll adjust exposure based on daily moves and macro signals.
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