TACO or HALO, Which Trade Do You Trust?
The recent oil price moves have been more thrilling than a rollercoaster! Brent crude surged to $120/bbl before plunging back to around $90. Today’s market has two competing narratives: Trump’s “tweet-style” diplomacy (TACO) versus Wall Street’s newly exalted hard-core paradigm (HALO).
1️⃣ TACO Trades: Is Trump “Chickening Out” Again?
The recently popular TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) has become a short-seller’s mantra.
Just like the back-and-forth tariff battles of 2025, Trump recently threatened Iran but then quickly announced the war was “basically over.” Markets are now pricing in a cooling of the conflict. If the Strait of Hormuz isn’t blocked long-term, the midpoint of oil prices could shift lower.
2️⃣ HALO Trades: Scarce Assets in the AI Era
Wall Street (Goldman Sachs / Josh Brown) proposed HALO (Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence). The core idea: when algorithms can replicate all software, physical assets that cannot be algorithmically copied become the rarest and most valuable.
No matter how strong AI becomes, it cannot replace hard physical assets:
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Heavy Assets: Power grids, deep-sea pipelines, rail networks—not only require hundreds of billions of dollars in investment, but also decades of regulatory approval and construction. Hot AI models like OpenClaw are essentially bottomless power sinks. AI can write code, but it cannot build transmission towers.
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Low Obsolescence: Software companies can collapse overnight due to a single new algorithm, but in 2026, logistics still needs trucks, refineries still need towers. HALO assets last 30–50 years, and in an inflationary environment, the replacement cost of these “old assets” is extremely high—they generate rents just by existing.
HALO Trade: what stocks to picl?
Power:
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$Vistra Energy Corp.(VST)$ / $Constellation Energy Corp(CEG)$: Nuclear power leaders. The heart of AI compute—classic heavy, irreplaceable assets.
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$NextEra(NEE)$ : The largest green energy and grid operator in the U.S.
Heavy Industry:
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$Caterpillar(CAT)$: Heavy machinery giant. Regardless of who’s president, mining, road construction, and data center builds rely on it.
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$United Rentals(URI)$ : Classic HALO asset management model, servicing major infrastructure projects. Its rental network is extremely hard to replicate.
Discussion
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ALL IN TACO: Bet on geopolitical easing and a rebound in A-shares and global risk assets?
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Support HALO: Stick with hard assets like power, metals, and semiconductor equipment, ignoring short-term volatility?
Do you see the next doubling opportunity in AI applications, or in the HALO basket?
Drop your thoughts in the comments to win tiger coins~
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But HALO is where my core conviction lies. AI can replicate software endlessly, but heavy, irreplaceable assets—like $Vistra Energy Corp.(VST)$ $NextEra(NEE)$ $Caterpillar(CAT)$ — remain scarce and crucial. Their longevity, low obsolescence, and strategic role make them natural hedges against inflation and volatility.
For me, it’s a balance: watch for
TACO-driven short-term moves, but anchor in HALO assets that matter regardless of headlines. Over time, these heavy assets could outperform even when markets swing wildly.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerClub