To The Moon

The recent oil price moves have been more thrilling than a rollercoaster! Brent crude surged to $120/bbl before plunging back to around $90. Today’s market has two competing narratives: Trump’s “tweet-style” diplomacy (TACO) versus Wall Street’s newly exalted hard-core paradigm (HALO). 1️⃣ TACO Trades: Is Trump “Chickening Out” Again? The recently popular TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) has become a short-seller’s mantra. Just like the back-and-forth tariff battles of 2025, Trump recently threatened Iran but then quickly announced the war was “basically over.” Markets are now pricing in a cooling of the conflict. If the Strait of Hormuz isn’t blocked long-term, the midpoint of oil prices could shift lower. 2️⃣ HALO Trades: Scarce Assets in the AI Era Wall Street (Goldman Sachs / Josh Brow

The oil market is currently caught between two very different trading frameworks. 1. TACO Trade (Trump Always Chickens Out) This view assumes geopolitical escalation is temporary theatre. The idea is that aggressive rhetoric or military signalling pushes oil up, but negotiations or political pressure eventually cool tensions. Typical market behaviour under this thesis: Oil spikes quickly on headlines Diplomacy follows within days or weeks Prices retrace sharply In this framework, $120 was a panic premium, and the return to ~$90 Brent reflects traders removing that geopolitical risk. Under TACO, oil likely oscillates between $80–100 unless real supply is disrupted. 2. HALO Trade (Hard-Asset Lockout) Wall Street’s “HALO” narrative argues something deeper is happening: Global spare capacity i

Wall Street (Goldman Sachs / Josh Brown) proposed HALO (Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence). The core idea: when algorithms can replicate all software, physical assets that cannot be algorithmically copied become the rarest and most valuable.

Just like the back-and-forth tariff battles of 2025, Trump recently threatened Iran but then quickly announced the war was “basically over.” Markets are now pricing in a cooling of the conflict. If the Strait of Hormuz isn’t blocked long-term, the midpoint of oil prices could shift lower.

Hi Tigers 👋 Recently, an interesting debate has been circulating in the market: Is the current rally trading TACO, or HALO? On one side, we have oil price volatility driven by geopolitics. On the other, the long-term boom in AI infrastructure investment. Put simply: TACO is the short-term story, HALO is the long-term one. But the real question is: Which narrative will the market believe more? 1. What Is the TACO Trade? The Logic Behind Oil’s Spike and Pullback Let’s start with the hottest buzzword recently: TACO. TACO stands for “Trump Always Chickens Out.” In simple terms, it suggests that Trump ultimately avoids pushing conflicts to the extreme. The phrase carries a bit of humor, but the market has genuinely been trading geopolitical risks using this logic. And the recent oil price movem

HALO seems like a better bet. TACO may not work this time round. Trump could start the fire but he might not be able to put it out.

great work

Oil swings lately have been wild! TACO trades are tempting—Trump’s threats and quick backtracks on Iran make me wonder if the market is overpricing geopolitical risk. If the Strait of Hormuz stays open, oil could settle near $90–$95, giving short-term upside for A-shares and global risk assets. But HALO is where my core conviction lies. AI can replicate software endlessly, but heavy, irreplaceable assets—like $Vistra Energy Corp.(VST)$ $NextEra(NEE)$

Hi Tigers 👋 Recently, an interesting debate has been circulating in the market: Is the current rally trading TACO, or HALO? On one side, we have oil price volatility driven by geopolitics. On the other, the long-term boom in AI infrastructure investment. Put simply: TACO is the short-term story, HALO is the long-term one. But the real question is: Which narrative will the market believe more? 1. What Is the TACO Trade? The Logic Behind Oil’s Spike and Pullback Let’s start with the hottest buzzword recently: TACO. TACO stands for “Trump Always Chickens Out.” In simple terms, it suggests that Trump ultimately avoids pushing conflicts to the extreme. The phrase carries a bit of humor, but the market has genuinely been trading geopolitical risks using this logic. And the recent oil price movem

The recent oil price moves have been more thrilling than a rollercoaster! Brent crude surged to $120/bbl before plunging back to around $90. Today’s market has two competing narratives: Trump’s “tweet-style” diplomacy (TACO) versus Wall Street’s newly exalted hard-core paradigm (HALO). 1️⃣ TACO Trades: Is Trump “Chickening Out” Again? The recently popular TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) has become a short-seller’s mantra. Just like the back-and-forth tariff battles of 2025, Trump recently threatened Iran but then quickly announced the war was “basically over.” Markets are now pricing in a cooling of the conflict. If the Strait of Hormuz isn’t blocked long-term, the midpoint of oil prices could shift lower. 2️⃣ HALO Trades: Scarce Assets in the AI Era Wall Street (Goldman Sachs / Josh Brow

The oil market is currently caught between two very different trading frameworks. 1. TACO Trade (Trump Always Chickens Out) This view assumes geopolitical escalation is temporary theatre. The idea is that aggressive rhetoric or military signalling pushes oil up, but negotiations or political pressure eventually cool tensions. Typical market behaviour under this thesis: Oil spikes quickly on headlines Diplomacy follows within days or weeks Prices retrace sharply In this framework, $120 was a panic premium, and the return to ~$90 Brent reflects traders removing that geopolitical risk. Under TACO, oil likely oscillates between $80–100 unless real supply is disrupted. 2. HALO Trade (Hard-Asset Lockout) Wall Street’s “HALO” narrative argues something deeper is happening: Global spare capacity i

Oil swings lately have been wild! TACO trades are tempting—Trump’s threats and quick backtracks on Iran make me wonder if the market is overpricing geopolitical risk. If the Strait of Hormuz stays open, oil could settle near $90–$95, giving short-term upside for A-shares and global risk assets. But HALO is where my core conviction lies. AI can replicate software endlessly, but heavy, irreplaceable assets—like $Vistra Energy Corp.(VST)$ $NextEra(NEE)$

Just like the back-and-forth tariff battles of 2025, Trump recently threatened Iran but then quickly announced the war was “basically over.” Markets are now pricing in a cooling of the conflict. If the Strait of Hormuz isn’t blocked long-term, the midpoint of oil prices could shift lower.

Wall Street (Goldman Sachs / Josh Brown) proposed HALO (Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence). The core idea: when algorithms can replicate all software, physical assets that cannot be algorithmically copied become the rarest and most valuable.

HALO seems like a better bet. TACO may not work this time round. Trump could start the fire but he might not be able to put it out.

great work